Abbas' Control Issues -

by Dr. Ronen Yitzhak

The calls for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state, with Jerusalem as its capital, are not new, but it seems that they are intensifying in recent days in light of American pressure on Israel along with the Palestinians' hope of winning international support. Due to the situation in the Middle East, however, it appears that even if Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas gets his wish, it is not certain he will be able to govern it for very long.

Ever since the Arab Spring that erupted in late 2010, Arab rulers have had to contend with political instability, Islam's increasing prominence and the spread of terrorism across the Middle East. As we all know, the grave state of their economies along with rampant corruption in government institutions were the primary factors for this turmoil. The Palestinian government could find itself in exactly the same boat as the other Arab states, due to unemployment rates climbing toward 30 percent, economic distress and corruption infecting the Fatah leadership -- not excluding Abbas' sons and close associates. Throughout the past year the Palestinian Authority has stood at the brink of economic collapse. Only emergency funding from Saudi Arabia has kept it afloat. A real solution to the PA's economic woes, however, is not visible on the horizon. Therefore, as long as foreign aid to the PA remains small, and while taxes are only partially collected and the cost of living continues to soar -- the danger of the PA collapsing and Abbas being deposed is real.

Moreover, ever since the creation of Hamas, the organization has tried on several occasions to undermine the Palestinian leadership with the intention of taking its place. In the free elections of January 2006, Hamas scored a resounding victory and forced Abbas to appoint Ismail Haniyeh as his prime minister. According to Palestinian estimates, Hamas still enjoys the support of the people and would likely win any election race. Even if Hamas does not assume power through democratic means, though, it still has a military force at its disposal and a public relations apparatus to disseminate incitement and propaganda to help it take control by means of a coup, similar to the events in Gaza in June 2007. Hamas has tried assassinating Mahmoud Abbas and overthrowing the Palestinian Authority more than once. Were it not for Israel saving his government, Abbas would have been removed long ago.

Finally, Islamic terrorism in the form of the Islamic State group, along with other Salafist terror groups that hope to establish an Islamic caliphate or Islamic country, threaten the Palestinian Authority no less than they threaten Israel. Even though this threat still appears to be far from reaching the West Bank, we can see today some popular support for ISIS there. While Hamas, in Gaza, has managed to eradicate Salafist support and the ISIS phenomenon, in the West Bank the PA's security forces have been unable to do so completely. 

The prognosis, therefore, is that each passing day will lead to more support for ISIS and the other Salafist groups -- which in turn could lead to violent clashes amid the dwindling legitimacy of the Palestinian Authority, which these Salafist groups see as a secular apostate. 

As long as the PA exists, Israel helps it as part of international agreements to deal with these and other problems, but if an independent Palestinian state does rise, will its rulers be able to withstand alone against these threats?

Dr. Ronen Yitzhak is head of the Middle East Studies Department at Western Galilee College.

Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=10177

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