by Maj. Gen. (ret.) Yaakov Amidror
If the rumor about the shift in the U.S. approach toward Iran is true, Israel is on the precipice of one of the toughest periods in the history of Israel-U.S. relations • Israel must prepare for a harsh period culminating with an entirely changed region.
U.S. Secretary of State John
Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif in Geneva
earlier this year
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Photo credit: AP  |
Recently I was asked for my take on leaked
information suggesting that European officials complained in closed
meetings that the U.S. was conceding to Iran on nuclear demands in
efforts to establish Iran as a stabilizing force in the region and to
enlist Tehran as an ally in the battle against Islamic State. I refused
to respond to such a strange, and in my view, implausible report. The
idea sounded so absurd that I couldn't help but reject its logic out of
hand, and therefore its veracity. The journalist behind the report
checked again and came back to me confident that her source was serious
and reliable. When I agreed to be interviewed on the report, I spoke
cautiously because I still thought it impossible that anyone in
Washington would pin their hopes on Iran.
It is possible that I was wrong. During my
visit to the U.S. two weeks ago I heard from several people that senior
State Department officials were trying to sell Washington on the idea
that a nuclear agreement with Iran will contribute to regional stability
in the Middle East, and that future relations between Iran and the U.S.
will advance U.S. interests; an American U-turn, heading toward a
special relationship with Iran. In such a reality, if this relationship
materializes, it is clear the U.S. would be jeopardizing Israel's
security for the sake of a sudden experimental partnership with a
country that openly declares its intention to harm and even destroy
Israel.
None of the people I spoke with mentioned the
White House, the president or his men as the ones promoting the idea.
Moreover, one White House official unequivocally denied it.
This perception, if the rumor is indeed true,
is based on a misunderstanding of Iran's intentions and its way of
thinking about the Muslim world and its place in it. This
misunderstanding stems from ignoring the Islamic republic's political
culture, its negotiation methods and its willingness to peddle illusions
to its adversary (as a religious imperative). This miscalculation is
compounded by the inexplicable and historically unfounded optimism over
the ability of any type of deal to change the Iranian attitude.
There are quite a few people in the U.S. who
think a deal, in and of itself, is more important than its substance,
because the atmosphere generated by an agreement creates mutual
commitment and positive movement toward a more amenable future,
irrespective of the actual details of the deal. This notion was popular
throughout the Cold War between the U.S. and Soviet Union, and it is now
being forcibly imposed onto a different reality. This is a completely
illogical approach to the realities of this current space and time.
From the point of view of the Arab Middle
East, the decision to alter the course with Iran means that America is
effectively choosing a side in the historical, centuries-old feud in
favor of the Shiite minority, scaring the Sunni majority. By doing so,
the Americans are encouraging the Shiites, who since the revolution in
Iran 35 years ago have been the most dynamically negative force in the
Middle East, a force which reaches far and wide via its terrorist group
proxies.
Iran established Hezbollah in Lebanon -- and
it is fighting on behalf of the Assad regime in Syria. Iran created the
Islamic Jihad group as a Sunni proxy among the Palestinians -- to fight
Israel. And Iran is helping Hamas, also a Sunni Palestinian organization
-- to undermine the Palestinian Authority and also to fight Israel.
Iran backs the Houthi rebels who have conquered Sana'a, and it prodded
the riots in Bahrain, which were subdued with help from Saudi Arabia.
Across the entire globe, the Iranians and their Hezbollah allies have
carried out dozens of terrorist attacks against Israel, and the
Americans are well aware of this. The U.S. is on the verge of partnering
with this radical force, in the hope that doing so will bring about
regional stability? It's hard to believe, but reports to this effect are
multiplying.
If the U.S. indeed leans toward the Shiites,
it will be adding fuel to the fire engulfing the Middle East, or in
other words, to the clash between Sunnis and Shiites. As a result, the
U.S. will lose the remaining trust of the Sunni states in the region.
They will go looking for new allies. The deal between Russia and Egypt
for the purchase of a nuclear power plant is just the first step in what
will be the regional response to being let down by the U.S.
If this process gains momentum in the Sunni
street and among Sunni leaders, it could pose a gigantic risk to U.S.
status in the entire region. As long as Islamic State continues to
terrorize, and the U.S.-led coalition remains the only viable solution
to the problem, the Sunnis will quell their fury and restrain their
backlash against the U.S. due to fear. However, their concern regarding
the Shiites and their anger at the U.S. over siding with them will not
dissipate because of the campaign against Islamic State -- perhaps the
opposite -- such a perception on the Sunni street could lead more people
to join Islamic State's ranks, precisely because the U.S., the
allegedly new friend of the Shiites, will be seen to have declared war
on Sunnis.
I still refuse to accept it or believe it, but
if the rumor about the new U.S. approach toward Iran is true, then
Israel is on the precipice of one of the toughest periods in the history
of its relationship with America. Israel, however, has no real
alternative to its relationship with the U.S., even if it emerges that a
bad nuclear deal with Iran is just one aspect of this negative
turnabout and that more unfortunate surprises await us down the road.
But if this is the way things are, Israel must
prepare for a harsh period, at the end of which we will see a changed
region, because once the powers that be in the Middle East understand
the proportions of the American about face, everything will look
different. Among other things, just as Henry Kissinger predicted
recently, the important Sunni states (Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey) will
begin a nuclear arms race because they, unlike the U.S., do not believe
in stability predicated upon a Shiite country that with America's
support will become the most influential power in the region.
In the U.S. there is a considerable number of people who
understand the scope of trouble such a decision would cause for Israel,
the Middle East and eventually, the U.S. as well. They need to be
called upon to join the struggle.
Maj. Gen. (ret.) Yaakov Amidror
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_article.php?id=23659
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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