by Oded Granot
A decade after a series of revolutions rattled the Middle East it seems Iran and Israel were the only ones to emerge stronger, albeit for opposite reasons.
The young Tunisian street vendor whose self-immolation in late 2010 sparked protests in his country could not have imagined that his desperate act would resonate throughout the Middle East in a series of political vibrations that have rattled the region to its core and the effects of which are felt to this day.
These aftershocks, which affected some countries more than others, were mistakenly dubbed the "Arab Spring" – the Middle Easter version of the 1848 Spring of Nations or the Velvet Revolution of the 1980s that signaled the fall of the Soviet Union – but that is a misperception.
The term "Arab Spring" continues to make headlines, despite the fact that democracy never flourished in its wake, and neither had equality, freedom of expression, or individual rights.
Instead, the past 10 years have seen storm clouds gather over severe civil wars, horrendous bloodshed, devastation, and millions of displaced refugees.
One of the main consequences of the upheaval in the Arab world was the overthrow of dictatorial rulers, who had a tight grip on power for decades, such as the Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi. But the hope that their removal from power would herald the age of democracy across the Middle East was an illusion.
Most Middle East countries are not yet ready for democracy. Steeped in tribal culture, ancient customs – not modern political campaigns – still dictate who much of the Arab public votes.
Former US President Barack Obama suffered embarrassing policy blindness twice with respect to the Middle East: first, when he believed Mubarak's removal would usher in the age of democracy in Egypt, and again when he thought that backing Muslim Brotherhood official Mohamed Morsi for president was the right thing to do.
Morsi was ousted by the military within a few months and replaced by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi – an absolute ruler just as tough – if not more - as Mubarak ever was. In Syria, President Bashar Assad has been kept in power by Iran and Russia, while Libya and Yemen have plunged into civil war.
Tunisia is the only country that successfully transitioned from a dictatorship to a democracy, while the Persian Gulf sheikdoms seem to have weathered the storm. Saudi Arabia helped Bahrain to ward off riots by the Shiite majority, and a prudent policy of the kings of Jordan and Morocco helped them to stay in power.
Ironically, the two regional powers that emerged from the upheaval in the Arab world stronger are Iran and Israel.
The West's mobilization to eradicate Islamic State only helped the Iranians establish their presence in Syria, stabilize Assad's regime, provide advanced weapons to Hezbollah – despite Israel's containment efforts – and expand its meddling in Yemen and elsewhere in the region.
True, the threat Iran and Hezbollah pose to Israel has not been removed and may have even increased following Tehran's invasion of Syria and the proximity to the Golan Heights, but in many ways, Israel has benefited from the shocks that have rattled the Arab world over the last decade.
The collapse of pan-Arabism and the complete disintegration of Arab unity have made it clear that Israel in not their enemy, let alone a common enemy.
Each country has had to deal with its own problems and defend itself against the regional upheaval. This has also marginalized the Israeli-Palestinian conflict after it finally became clear that it was not the main cause of regional instability.
Moreover, Tehran's nuclear ambition and its subversion in the region have emerged as the main threat to the security of Arab regimes, pushing them to cooperate with Israel. This urge only intensified after the US made it clear it plans to minimize its involvement in the Middle East.
This, alongside the UAE's desire to get Israel's help in dealing with the Turkish-Qatari axis, which is trying to establish its influence in the Middle East, has given Israel one of the main achievements of the Arab upheaval: diplomatic relations and normalization with the Gulf states.
Oded Granot
Source: https://www.israelhayom.com/opinions/the-arab-springs-unintentional-results/
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