by Ahmad Batebi
The so-called ceasefire is no peace—just a strategic pause for Iran to rebuild, regroup, and ready its next move in a war it never legally or ideologically ended.
The announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and the Islamic Republic of Iran on June 24, 2025, after twelve days of intense conflict, was widely portrayed as a diplomatic breakthrough. Mediated by the United States and Qatar, with direct involvement from former President Donald Trump, this pause was hailed as a moment of de-escalation. However, a closer look at Iran’s legal framework and ideological foundation reveals that this “ceasefire” holds no legal or meaningful recognition within the Iranian regime. Instead, it is merely a strategic and ideological pause, one that the regime will use to consolidate its forces and prepare for the next round.
Legal Void: No Formal Ceasefire Took Place
Under Article 110 of Iran’s Constitution, only the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, has the authority to declare war or peace. No political or military official, from the president to ministers to commanders, can independently agree to a ceasefire without his explicit command. International mediation agreements would also require ratification by Iran’s parliament (Majles). To date, neither the Supreme Leader nor the Majles has issued or endorsed such a decree. Accordingly, under Iran’s own domestic law, no legal ceasefire has occurred. What the outside world sees as a halt in fighting is perceived internally as an externally imposed interim truce.
Ideology of Invincibility: Victory Amid Ruins
Despite the severe toll of senior commanders killed, nuclear and military sites devastated, and civilian casualties, Supreme Leader Khamenei hailed it as a triple victory over Israel, the United States, and the West. Within Iran’s ideological framework, outcomes are not judged by conventional metrics but by divine interpretation. Triumphs are considered manifestations of Allah’s will; adversity is reframed as a spiritual test or as evidence of global arrogance. Notions of defeat simply have no place; martyrdom or suffering in the cause of ideology is deemed a divine victory, promising rewards in the hereafter.
The Eternal Revolution: Failure Is Not an Option
For Iran, the Islamic Revolution is not a historical moment; it is an ongoing process. Political, economic, or military setbacks aren’t obstacles to the regime’s goals of destroying Western influence and paving the way for the return of the Twelfth Imam but are considered opportunities for ideological reformation and purification. The doctrine of “moghavemat” (resistance) is central: each challenge is portrayed as moral validation of the regime.
The IRGC: Guardians of Ideology, Not Borders
Under Article 150 of the Constitution, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is entrusted with preserving and exporting the Revolution. Unlike the conventional army, the IRGC is not tasked with defending national borders; its mission is to uphold the regime and enforce the Supreme Leader’s ideological vision. As long as the IRGC remains powerful, the ideological framework of the Iranian state remains intact. The IRGC’s pronouncements and actions embody the official policies of the regime itself.
Strategic Use of Ceasefires
The June 2025 pause in fighting was not a resolution but a strategic regrouping. Official media referred to it as a “forced ceasefire,” a pause to rebuild infrastructure, reinforce internal control, and prepare for the next stage. Meanwhile, reports indicate that Iran is activating clandestine nuclear facilities and escalating internal repression, arresting and executing dissidents under accusations of “collaborating with foreign enemies.”
What Lies Ahead
With the current pause, the real question is about the regime’s intentions for what follows. Iran has never formally accepted a ceasefire—neither under domestic law nor international norms.
Official statements from the Supreme Leader and IRGC commanders repeatedly label the lull a “forced ceasefire” imposed by Trump. Regime media emphasize that it was not a surrender but a chance to rebuild and prepare for a “hard retaliation.”
Strategically, Iran did not sit idly by after the strikes on known nuclear sites like Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. Those sites have been known to Western intelligence for years and were likely never intended to be the core of their nuclear ambitions. Evidence indicates significant nuclear efforts have moved to hidden facilities not disclosed to the IAEA nor targeted in the airstrikes. Iranian insiders have reportedly alluded to the existence of such secret sites. With access to enrichment technology, financial resources, ideological commitment, and decades of experience, Iran can now pursue its nuclear objectives more covertly and effectively than ever.
Simultaneously, the regime is ramping up non-kinetic threats: funding sleeper terrorist networks across the Middle East and Europe, deploying radical Islamists in the West, and conducting cyber warfare against democratic systems. At home, wave after wave of repression, mass arrests, and executions justified via the accusation of “collaborating with enemies” are underway.
A critical and often overlooked fact: the Iranian regime has no exit strategy. After decades of repression, executions, and torture, its leaders understand that collapse would mean retribution. They know there is nowhere safe for them in the modern world. Therefore, continuation without any shift toward reform is the only perceived path to survival, because in their narrative, reform equates to admission of failure.
A Persistent and Growing Threat
While Western attention may have relaxed after strikes on major nuclear sites, the core threat remains: Iran’s return to nuclear ambitions, hybrid warfare, and ideological influence campaigns. Over the coming months and years, the international community, especially Western nations, will face a broader range of challenges: from orchestrated terrorist attacks by Iranian-affiliated groups to complex cyber assaults targeting critical infrastructure and ideological subversion via Tehran-linked media and religious networks.
The West must understand that a temporary pause in combat is not peace, but rather the opening act of a more dangerous chapter.
Photo: TEHRAN, IRAN - JUNE 18: (----EDITORIAL USE ONLY - MANDATORY CREDIT - 'OFFICE OF THE SUPREME LEADER OF IRAN / HANDOUT' - NO MARKETING NO ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS - DISTRIBUTED AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTS----) Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei addresses the nation on Iranian state television broadcast in Tehran, Iran on June 18, 2025. In a televised address, Khamenei commented on the recent tensions and threats. (Photo by Office of the Supreme Leader of Iran / Handout /Anadolu via Getty Images)
Ahmad Batebi
Source: https://amgreatness.com/2025/06/30/khameneis-plan-an-ideological-ceasefire-not-the-end-of-war/
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