Why the IDF is removing home front restrictions after 1,000 drones, 400 missiles - analysis - Yonah Jeremy Bob

 

by Yonah Jeremy Bob

The Islamic Republic has fired over 400 ballistic missiles and launched over 1,000 drones against Israel, with fewer than 30 missile hits in civilian areas, killing around 25 people.

 

Anti-missile system fires interception missiles as missiles fired from Iran as seen from the West Bank, June 18, 2025.

(photo credit: WISAM HASHLAMOUN/FLASH90) 

As surprised as Israelis were to find themselves at war with Iran on Friday morning, they were possibly equally surprised that the IDF began easing Home Front Command’s restrictions on Wednesday afternoon. Those precautions make it less likely Iran can harm as many people, but they shut down large aspects of civilian life.

Essentially, the story is about statistics. The Islamic Republic has fired more than 400 ballistic missiles and launched at least 1,000 drones against Israel. Fewer than 30 missiles have hit civilian areas, killing about 25 people, while the drones have not caused any fatalities.

About 600 people have been wounded, and an estimated 4,000 people have been forced to move out of structures damaged by the missiles. But this might be half of the worst-case scenario that the military was expecting or prepared for.

Tehran still might outwit the IDF and carry out deadly strikes. That could force the IDF to backtrack and reinstate more Home Front Command restrictions.

But the notion of allowing 30 people to congregate outdoors in some areas, 50 in other areas, and about 100 indoors in areas with safe spaces is a reasonable risk to take. After six days of fighting with Iran, Home Front Command has seen a clear pattern of fewer missile barrages and reduced volume of missiles per barrage.

Anti-missile system fires interception missiles as missiles fired from Iran as it seen from Tel Aviv, June 18, 2025. (credit: CHAIM GOLDBEG/FLASH90)

The IDF attributed this change to various data points: It has destroyed about 40% of Iran’s ballistic-missile launchers, significantly reducing how many missiles can be fired at once.

It has destroyed much of the command and control units that would help coordinate mass barrages at once, and even those missile crews who succeed at getting to an area for firing are sometimes failing to fire or firing with less accuracy due to the perception or actuality of being hunted by the IAF as they do it.

Regarding the estimated 1,000 launched drones, it is not just that none of them have killed an Israeli; it is that about 800 of them have been shot down or crashed on their own long before even getting close to Israel’s border. That is not surprising given the 1,500 kilometers they must travel at slow speeds to reach Israel.

The IDF also highlighted that the calculations are impacted directly by Iranian strategy

So far, Iran has targeted Tel Aviv and the center of the country more than the periphery. As a result, the restrictions – for the first time in the war – are more lenient for the border areas than for the center of the country.

The IDF said it hopes for a staggered reopening of the economy, assuming it does not lead to more casualties from ongoing attacks.

Regarding synagogues and other public gatherings, there is now some room to reopen, although with very limited numbers.

Education settings are still expected to remain closed longer, because they have children who are considered more vulnerable, and because they tend to inherently have much larger numbers of people.

The IDF said special education settings might start to reopen given that they often have fewer people.

Yonah Jeremy Bob

Source: https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-858197

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