Houthis now becoming more emboldened after sinking two ships in Red Sea - analysis - Seth J. Frantzman

 

by Seth J. Frantzman

The fact that so many countries in the region did not assist the ships quickly in order to deter the Houthis shows that it is not a priority.

 

A VESSEL said to be the Greek-operated, Liberia-flagged ‘Eternity C’ sinks in the Red Sea last week. The Houthis have been transformed into Iran’s most potent and aggressive non-state actor in the Arab world, says the writer.

(photo credit: Houthi Media Center/Reuters) 

The Iranian-backed Houthis are emboldened after sinking two ships last week in the Red Sea. They also killed several members of one ship’s crew. Now the question is, why did the Houthis suddenly target these ships, and will they attack more?

The Houthis claim they target ships linked to Israel or those that have docked in Israel’s ports or will do so in the future. However, the terrorist organization has also targeted more than 70 ships since they began their attacks in November 2023, many of which have nothing to do with Israel.

The first ship targeted, the Magic Sea, had 22 crew members who were all rescued. The ship was attacked by a swarm of small, fast craft, and then by kamikaze drones. Later, another ship called the Eternity C was attacked. Both ships sank. The Eternity C saw several of its crew killed and missing. It had 25 people on board. It appears that 10 crew members were rescued by other ships, but others were kidnapped by the Houthis.

These incidents happened around 51 nautical miles off the coast of Yemen in the middle of the Red Sea in international waters. The Houthis clearly planned these long-range attacks; it would have taken the Houthi small attack craft – skiffs with engines on them – hours to reach these ships depending on how fast they were traveling, and it would have taken them time to zero in their drones to attack as well.

No help combatting Houthis' attacks

The Houthis also boarded the ships and then blew them up in what was a complex mission. It's not easy to stop a large cargo ship that is making speed. It is also not easy to disable it and then board it. Yet this took place over a period of two or three days, while seemingly no navy units tried to help. The Wall Street Journal described the attack: “Two ships desperately tried to fight off Houthi attacks. Help never arrived.”

PROTESTERS, MOSTLY Houthi supporters, sit along an Iranian flag at a demonstration in support of Palestinians and Iran, in Sanaa last week. Aggression by proxies such as the Houthis must be treated as direct Iranian attacks, says the writer. (credit: KHALED ABDULLAH/REUTERS)

There is no more poignant a conclusion to this disaster than the WSJ headline. Why did no one assist these ships? An international coalition called Prosperity Guardian had been assembled in November 2023 to prevent these attacks and help ships in distress. The US also attacked the Houthis in mid-March to try to stop their attacks.

Where was the US Navy that has assets within the Central Command’s area of operations? What about other navies, such as the British, French, or Chinese? There are naval assets in this area. Could they have reached the site in time?

Usually, US Carrier Strike Groups have had several destroyers, cruiser escorts, and other ships with them. Currently the USS Carl Vinson and USS Nimitz are supposed to be somewhere in the Arabian Sea or Indian Ocean. It’s not entirely clear where they are; however, US Central Command published footage of the Vinson launching F-18s on July 11. On July 12 the US Navy also published a photo of an F/A-18 launching from the USS Nimitz.

The carriers were also photographed together by CENTCOM on July 8. The US naval ships can usually make in excess of 30 knots, meaning in a day they could sail more than 600 nautical miles. They also have aircraft that can fly around 1,500 mph.

This would give the US and other navies that ability to assist the ships in the Red Sea. So why has this not been a priority? There are also foreign naval and air force assets in Djibouti usually. This is relatively close to the area where the ships were sunk.

Overall, the fact that so many countries in the region did not assist the ships quickly in order to deter the Houthis shows that it is not a priority. The Houthis seem to know this, and they feel they have impunity. The question now is whether they will feel emboldened to do more attacks.

Seth J. Frantzman

Source: https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-860923

Follow Middle East and Terrorism on Twitter