by Steven Richards
Margaret Thatcher-san? In many ways, Takaichi will be a natural partner for President Donald Trump in the region, but has promised to closely guard Japan’s national interest, especially under the U.S.-Japan trade & investment deal.
A new ultra-conservative prime minister took the helm of Japan on Tuesday bringing a “Japan First” mentality to office. Her positions raise the possibility of both greater cooperation and potential trade tensions with the United States and the Trump administration.
Sanae Takaichi, a conservative in the mold of late Trump ally Shinzō Abe, was elected the first female prime minister of Japan by the country’s parliament on Tuesday. During her political career, Takaichi has adopted positions that closely mirror the priorities of her mentor Abe: calling on Japan to revise its post-war pacifist constitution, advocating a more hawkish position towards China, and floating economic reforms to boost growth in the stagnating economy.
Like Trump, Abe, also a conservative, was the target of an assassin's bullet, and while delivering a speech on July 8, 2022, Abe was murdered by a 41-year-old man with a homemade gun, who later confessed.
Natural partners in many ways
In many ways, Takaichi will be a natural partner for President Donald Trump in the region. Many of the new prime minister’s priorities align closely with those the American president has for his own country. But, Takaichi’s nationalism may create tensions with the U.S. with regard to trade and tariffs.
Takaichi has positioned herself as a supporter of the U.S.-Japan security alliance and vowed that she would work with the American president to strengthen that bond, much like her earlier predecessor Abe, who was assassinated three years ago.
President Trump congratulated her this month when she was selected as the leader of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party, saying that it was “tremendous news for Japan.”
Takaichi replied by thanking the American president and vowed to work closely with him. "I’m very pleased to receive his kind words,” she wrote in a post to X. "We look forward to working together to advance a free and open Indo-Pacific region."
"Truly hoping to work together with President Trump to make our Alliance even stronger and more prosperous, and to advance a Free and Open Indo-Pacific,” the future prime minister said in a separate message earlier this month.
Takaichi also promised that she would meet with the U.S. president as soon as possible to discuss ways to “elevate the Japan-U.S. relationship to new heights.”
Japan encouraged to become a major peacekeeping power in the region
The new prime minister’s calls for Japan to increase defense spending and reform its pacifist post-war constitution in favor of expanding its military power is also likely to be met with approval from Washington. Such a move would allow Japan to take on a greater share of the burden in the Pacific, mirroring the Trump administration’s efforts to convince Europeans to spend more on their own defense within the NATO alliance.
In its current constitution, which was adopted following Japan’s surrender in World War II, the country promised to “forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes.” The document also proscribes Japan from maintaining “land, sea, and air forces, as well as other war potential” to that end.
Though Japan maintains self-defense forces as a workaround, many leaders on the Japanese right believe that an increasingly powerful China, the competition between China and the United States, and aggression from other actors around the world, like Russia, necessitate a revision to the policy.
Takaichi’s platform outlines a plan to accelerate the current timeline to implement a new defense strategy that was developed under her predecessors. That plan commits Japan to achieve 2% GDP spending on defense by 2027 and provides a procurement plan to acquire new military capabilities to bolster Japan’s power.
Japan's economy her first task
While vital, Japan’s relationship with the United States will not be Takaichi's primary concern as she takes leadership in the country. She was chosen for leadership principally to revive the flagging Japanese economy, afflicted by persistent inflation, low wage growth, and an aging population that strains welfare programs.
The new prime minister is expected to closely follow the economic platform of her former mentor, Abe, who advocated for high government spending, low interest rates, and reforms to improve business competition. These policies were collectively known as “Abenomics.”
As part of her economic messaging, Takaichi has framed her proposed economic reforms in terms of asserting Japan’s national sovereignty and economic security.
It is with this lens that the new leader plans to assess the country’s current trade relationship with the United States, which could turn into an area of tension with the Trump administration.
Just months before he stepped down, Takaichi’s predecessor, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, negotiated a trade and tariff deal with the United States to boost investments and set a baseline tariff on Japanese goods at 15%. President Trump previously threatened to impose a nearly 25% tariff on all Japanese goods, which roiled its markets.
The deal was finally settled after months of seemingly deadlocked negotiations. As part of the final deal, Tokyo promised to increase investments in U.S.-based projects to $550 billion by the end of Trump’s second term and boost purchases of American agricultural products like corn and soybeans, CNBC reported. The Japanese also promised to purchase American-made commercial aircraft and defense products.
Before she was chosen to lead the country, Takaichi promised that the tariff agreement her predecessor signed would carry over to her new Japanese administration, should she be selected for the role.
“Even if the administration changes, this bilateral agreement — including the tariff provisions — will be carried over,” Takaichi told a Japanese TV station in September.
However, she was the only one of the five Liberal Democratic Party candidates to express concerns about her predecessor’s deal. Takaichi specifically raised concerns about the government’s promise to invest $550 billion into American projects, noting that if any of the terms were found to be unfair to Japan, it would warrant a renegotiation.
“That said, if in practice something comes up that’s really unfair and hurts Japan’s national interests, we must speak out firmly, and there is also the possibility of renegotiation,” Takaichi said.
When the moderators of the TV event asked whether any of the candidates believed there were “unequal aspects” in the agreement, Takaichi was the only candidate to raise her hand, The Japan Times reported.
Trump touts current deal with Japan
It is not clear how President Trump would respond to an attempt to renegotiate any part of the trade agreement.
"This Deal will create Hundreds of Thousands of Jobs — There has never been anything like it," Trump said in a post on Truth Social in July. "Perhaps most importantly, Japan will open their Country to Trade including Cars and Trucks, Rice and certain other Agricultural Products, and other things. Japan will pay Reciprocal Tariffs to the United States of 15%.
"This is a very exciting time for the United States of America, and especially for the fact that we will continue to always have a great relationship with the Country of Japan," he continued. "Thank you for your attention to this matter!"
Ryosei Akazawa, Japan’s tariff negotiator, thinks Takaichi will not have to renegotiate the deal. He has repeatedly called attention to a part of the agreement that forbids Japan from making investments that are contrary to its interests or that provide no financial benefit, The Japan Times reported.
Steven Richards
Source: https://justthenews.com/world/asia/what-rise-japans-new-ultraconservative-prime-minister-means-trump-administration
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