by David Ben Basat
The struggle between Israel and Iran is not over; it has merely entered a cautious waiting phase. Israel must ensure that Iran never returns to that path again.
 |
Five years have passed since the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, the man who led the Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guards and was one of the most powerful figures in the Middle East. His image became mythic, and his shadow continues to loom over Tehran.
His successor, Gen. Esmail Qaani, appointed by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei immediately after the killing in January 2020, has been trying to preserve the influence of the “martyr” and restore Iran’s regional prestige. Yet, in the reality of a regime exhausted both economically and morally, the Islamic Revolution is barely standing.
Soleimani was not only a military commander; he was a master strategist who knew how to blend diplomacy, psychological warfare, and military power. Qaani, who served as his deputy for years, lacks both the charisma and ability to coordinate among the various Shi’ite militias spread throughout the Middle East.
Iran's crumbling empire
The empire that Soleimani built has begun to crumble. In Iraq, criticism is mounting; in Lebanon, following Hassan Nasrallah’s assassination, Hezbollah’s grip on the country has significantly weakened; in Yemen, there is growing fatigue with Iranian influence that has failed to produce tangible results.In 2024, Masoud Pezeshkian, a physician by profession, was elected president of Iran. He attempted – without much success – to present a more moderate face for the regime. Pezeshkian speaks of economic reforms and cautious openness toward the West, but he finds himself trapped between two immense centers of power: Supreme Leader Khamenei on one side and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on the other.
FOR YEARS, Iran’s nuclear ambitions symbolized independence, defiance of the West, and deterrence. The destruction of its nuclear reactors in a precise Israeli-American attack in June 2025 shook the very foundations of that dream. The Natanz, Fordow, and Arak facilities, the core of the project, were obliterated in a sophisticated operation that combined aerial strikes, cyber warfare, and controlled explosions.
Seemingly, this was a strategic collapse. Yet Tehran turned it into a turning point. Rather than abandon the dream of the bomb, the regime portrayed the attack as justification to continue the race. Khamenei declared that “the destruction of the reactors proves why Iran must secure a nuclear deterrent capability at any cost.”
Reality, however, has struck the leaders of this terror state. Iran no longer has a real deterrent infrastructure to rely on. Teams of scientists have scattered, some killed, and the logistical network has collapsed. Even Russia and China – once considered close allies – are keeping their distance. Iran is discovering that its nuclear dream has become a heavy burden, and the balance of terror it sought to create has been replaced by global sanctions.
For Qaani, the destruction of the reactors represents a double failure, both security and strategic. Once promising that “Soleimani’s blood will yield strategic revenge,” he now faces a country that has lost its central deterrent card. The Iranian army continues to attempt to export the revolution through militias, but it is becoming clear that this is not a winning strategy.
The recent attacks on Quds Force headquarters in Damascus and Tehran, and the assassinations of senior figures, including Hezbollah secretary-general Nasrallah, Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi, and Iranian commanders in Syria and Lebanon, have demonstrated just how deep Israel’s intelligence penetration runs within the Iranian system.
This is not merely an operational achievement but proof that the regime has lost the sense of immunity that characterized it for decades.
Pezeshkian is now trying to rehabilitate Iran’s international image. To the world, he sends messages of moderation and a desire to return to a new nuclear agreement, yet he is forced to promise “resistance and justice.” The Iranian public does not believe him. Economic reforms have not materialized, and the destruction of the nuclear reactors has become a symbol of national embarrassment and helplessness.
THE ASSASSINATION of Soleimani and the destruction of the reactors – pillars of Iran’s power – mark the beginning of the end for the Shi’ite revolutionary era. A new generation of Iranians no longer views Israel or the United States as an enemy, but rather sees corruption and repression at home as the true adversaries.
For Israel, the strike on the reactors was not merely intended to halt the project and remove an existential threat; it was meant to change the rules of the game. It proved that real deterrence is not built through declarations but through action.
Israel, in coordination with the United States, demonstrated that it is willing to act, even unilaterally, against world powers when its national security is at stake. In doing so, Israel upended Iran’s deadly hand and exposed the weakness of the Iranian regime.
Today, Iran faces a new reality: it has lost its legendary commander, its nuclear reactors, and the trust of its people. Instead of becoming a regional superpower, it is now a nation under global sanctions.
The murderous regime will not abandon its murderous ideology until its people rise up and overthrow the rule of the ayatollahs. The destruction of the reactors did not kill the regime’s dream; they will continue underground, seeking to revive their ambitious nuclear project.
The struggle between Israel and Iran is not over; it has merely entered a cautious waiting phase. Israel must ensure that Iran never returns to that path again.
David Ben Basat is the CEO of Radios 100FM, an honorary consul and deputy dean
of the Consular Diplomatic Corps, president of the Israel Radio
Communication Association, and a former IDF Radio monitor and NBC
correspondent.
Source: https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-872230
No comments:
Post a Comment