by Dr. Shaul Shay
From a strategic standpoint, striking Israel is an attempt by Islamic State to undermine the Israel-Egypt peace treaty.
The rocket fire from
Sinai at the Eshkol Regional Council on Monday and the rocket fire at
the southern resort city of Eilat two weeks ago is a message by Sinai
Province -- Islamic State's proxy in the desert peninsula -- that it has
trained its sights on Israel.
Islamic State has
suffered significant defeats in Iraq and Syria, its operatives' morale
has suffered blow after blow, and it is struggling to recruit new
members to its ranks. Under these circumstances, the organization aims
to mark achievements, and striking Israel serves this purpose.
The past few months
have seen Islamic State's proxy in Sinai under escalating attacks by
Egyptian forces, mainly in northern Sinai. This has made it difficult
for the terrorist group to carry out significant attacks against the
Egyptian military, and Sinai Province is therefore trying to move its
main scope of operations to central and southern Sinai.
With this respect,
firing rockets at Israel serves Islamic State's goal to make the
Egyptian military deploy its forces across wider sectors, so to prevent
fire on Israel, which would take the pressure off the group in northern
Sinai.
Islamic State accuses
Egypt and Israel of collaborating against it in the peninsula, and
earlier this week it claimed four operatives were killed in an Israeli
drone strike, prompting retaliation in the form of rocket fire on
Eshkol. As far as Islamic State is concerned this was an attempt to
re-establish its balance of deterrence vis-a-vis Israel.
From a strategic
standpoint, striking Israel is an attempt by Islamic State to undermine
the Israel-Egypt peace treaty. The jihadi group believes any strike from
Sinai at Israel serves this purpose.
Moreover, an escalation
vis-a-vis Israel may serve Islamic State's complex relations with Hamas
in the Gaza Strip. The two terrorist groups have collaborated in the
past, and Egypt has even accused Hamas of arming Sinai Province
operatives.
Recently, however,
there has been some rapprochement between Cairo and Hamas, something
Islamic State seeks to torpedo by provoking a security escalation in
Sinai and targeting Israel.
It is also possible
that Islamic State's proxy seeks to test Yahya Sinwar, Hamas' newly
elected leader in Gaza, who is known as a militant hard-liner.
Since 2013, Egypt has
been relentlessly fighting Islamist terrorist groups in Sinai, most
notably the Muslim Brotherhood and Sinai Province.
The head of Egypt's
military intelligence recently said that Cairo has formulated a new
strategy to fight terrorism, which includes three main components:
Improving intelligence; mounting wide-scale offensive action against
terrorist organizations while minimizing any harm to innocent civilians;
and extensive projects to improve the living conditions of the Sinai
population.
He further noted that
since 2015, Egyptian security forces have killed more than 500
terrorists in Sinai, and foiled an attempt by Islamic State to form what
he called an "Islamic emirate" in northern Sinai.
Egyptian President
Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi sees the war on terror a key element in
maintaining stability in Egypt and the Middle East as a whole. As such,
Israel affords Egypt extensive leeway in its military operations in
Sinai, including deploying air and ground forces in a scope that exceeds
the parameters detailed in the two's 1979 peace deal.
Despite Egypt's efforts
to eliminate terrorism in Sinai, there is still real concern that
Islamic State will try to escalate its operations against Israel beyond
rocket fire. Israel must prepare for this possibility and increase its
collaboration with Egypt.
Dr. Shaul Shay is a lecturer at the Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya.
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=18471
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