by Zalman Shoval
-- the equation of American support to Saudi Arabia in exchange for peace with Israel could backfire and create an equation of normalizing relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel in exchange for Israeli concessions to the Palestinians.
Some people used to say
that neutralizing the Iranian threat is contingent on finding a
solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict -- an irrational claim, as
Iran is not interested in settling the Palestinian problem, but rather
in continually fueling the fire between Israel and its Arab rivals.
Even U.S. President
Donald Trump wants to create a link between the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict and the Iranian issue, but in the opposite direction: In his
eyes, the proximity of interests between Israel, the Sunni Arab
countries and the U.S. on the Iran issue will be a stimulus for
advancing peace.
That is how his deal
will look, at least in theory. The question is if these ideas, which in
themselves are positive, match the reality of the Sunni Arab world and
the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
In truth, the alliance
mentioned is between Arab countries and America, not Israel. They share
pragmatic interests on the Iranian issue, but no more than that. Not
only is Saudi Arabia averse to the principles at the heart of Israeli
democracy, the Arab street -- including in Egypt and Jordan, which are
at peace with Israel -- does not seek normalization with Israel, but
rather sympathizes with its enemies.
Since this is the case,
how much would Arab leaders be willing to endanger their standing with
their people in exchange for genuine rapprochement with Israel?
The only possible deal
is not the ultimate solution Trump wishes to achieve. At most, the deal
will achieve interim agreements on some issues. The development of
pragmatic relations between the Arab world and Israel must be seen in a
positive light.
But the question of
whether this will indeed bring about a solution to the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict, as Trump plans, is still far from being
answered, especially when the American president learns that, contrary
to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas' messages of peace to a
left-wing rally
in Tel Aviv Saturday, the Palestinians have neither the desire nor the
ability to meet even the most minimal requirements for any potential
peace deal.
A solution to the issue
of Jerusalem does not seem at hand in the current atmosphere, either.
Trump wishes to untie the Gordian knot by reaching an agreement on
borders early on in the negotiations, but the future borders between
Israel and any Palestinian entity would be the result of achieving a
consensus on most of the other issues, including security -- not the
other way around.
According to
Palestinian sources, the Americans are currently promoting an initiative
that would bring about a meeting between Trump, Abbas and Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington, which would set negotiations
in motion under a nine-month time restriction. One must remember that
the negotiations promoted by former Secretary of State John Kerry were
also allotted a time frame, and we all know what became of it.
The current American
initiative may elicit a feeling that perhaps, the processes the new
administration seeks to put in motion are not so different from those
suggested by its predecessors. Additionally, one should remember that
the equation of American support to Saudi Arabia in exchange for peace
with Israel could backfire and create an equation of normalizing
relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel in exchange for Israeli
concessions to the Palestinians.
Trump said an
Israeli-Palestinian peace deal would bring peace to the entire Middle
East. An honest expectation, but one cannot help but be reminded of the
traditional argument made by various experts in different foreign
ministries, as if the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is the source of all
that ails the Middle East.
Hopefully, Trump's
foreign policy will not foster the understanding that American interests
in the Middle East, including its alliance with Saudi Arabia, are
conditional on progress in the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, and the
realistic, pragmatic Trump administration, whose friendship with Israel
cannot be questioned, will not repeat the mistakes of his predecessors.
Zalman Shoval
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=19129
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