by Yoav Limor
Hezbollah is connecting the dots and making its own conclusions: Israel may be planning a strike in Lebanon.
There was a lot of
noise over nothing on Israel's northern front over the weekend; while
the media was abuzz over a number of incidents and reports, nothing
significant actually changed on the ground.
The commotion began on Thursday when it was
revealed that an Iranian aircraft had landed in Beirut. In the past,
many such flights involved weapons shipments to Hezbollah, and the
Lebanese terrorist organization may well believe that this latest report
was an intentional Israeli move.
In the wake of these reports, Hezbollah
launched an online campaign titled "defend our skies," in which it
called on the Lebanese government to act against the Israeli air force,
which Hezbollah said was operating in Lebanese airspace in violation of
United Nations Resolution 1701.
Israel responded in kind, launching its own
online campaign. Shortly thereafter, reports emerged of an Israeli
airstrike in Syria. And while the attack, if it even occurred, appeared
relatively minor in scope, it drew a lot of attention. Not just because
it was reported in real time – and was the first known Israeli strike
since the downing of a Russian plane on September 17 – but also because
of the hysterical Syrian response, which included the firing of over 20
surface-to-air missiles. Debris from one of these missiles landed in
Israeli territory. The Syrians even issued a false report that an
Israeli plane had been shot down – which an IDF spokesperson summarily
refuted.
On Friday night, Hezbollah aired a menacing
video, complete with satellite images and precise locations of IDF
headquarters in Tel Aviv and several air force bases. The message was
clear: We are tracking you and have the capability to hit any target in
Israel with precision. The IDF spokesperson issued a mocking response
and warned that "those who live in glass houses should not throw
stones."
This behavior appears to indicate immense
pressure building in the northern arena – in Syria and especially in
Lebanon. Hezbollah is busy trying to connect the dots: Israel evades a
military campaign in Gaza amid Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's
intimations that something big is on the horizon in the north; the term
of outgoing IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot is extended by two weeks
and he cancels a trip to Germany; the numerous mentions of precision
missile facilities in Lebanon; and also the Israel Hayom report exposing
Hezbollah's efforts to rehabilitate its terrorist infrastructure in the
Syrian Golan Heights.
From Hezbollah's perspective, all these
dots form one solid line pointing to a possible Israeli attack – which
it is trying to prevent through its online intimidation campaign. In
this regard, Hezbollah was the first to blink, although it must be said
truthfully: Israel is also deterred and does not want a war. The actions
it has recently taken were intended to stave off a conflagration. We
can, therefore, expect the tense quiet to also hold in the near future.
Yoav Limor
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/2018/12/02/from-hezbollahs-perspective-israel-is-ready-to-attack/
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