The ongoing conflict facing Israel is not a single war, but two parallel and distinct campaigns, one against Iran, currently under ceasefire, and the other against Hamas in Gaza, which continues with no clear end in sight.

The ceasefire with Iran is tenuous. An agreement between the United States and Tehran is reportedly in the works, though questions remain about whether it will be finalized, what its terms will entail, and whether it will genuinely halt Iran’s military nuclear ambitions, or merely postpone them temporarily. While Iran’s missile infrastructure has been hit hard, there is little indication that it is prepared to dismantle or restrict its weapons programs.

Meanwhile, the war in Gaza, now in its twentieth month, drags on, with no decisive victory in sight. Unlike Iran, Hamas is not a proxy in this war. Treating it as such has led to a strategic miscalculation: that peace with Iran would bring calm to Gaza. Hamas, heavily backed by Qatar, operates independently and has shown the capacity to sustain its campaign without Iranian assistance.

Assessing the damage

Israel achieved significant operational successes in its campaign against Iran, particularly through the Air Force and the Mossad. Yet these victories fall short of the decisive triumph seen in the Six-Day War.
Palestinian Hamas terrorists stand guard as people gather on the day of the handover of hostages, in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, February 22, 2025. (credit: REUTERS/Hatem Khaled TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY)
Palestinian Hamas terrorists stand guard as people gather on the day of the handover of hostages, in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, February 22, 2025. (credit: REUTERS/Hatem Khaled TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY)
The costs have been steep. Iranian missile barrages inflicted major damage on Israeli cities, killing dozens, wounding hundreds, and displacing thousands. For the first time in its history, Israel found itself under a genuine siege. Ben-Gurion Airport remained closed throughout the fighting, stranding tens of thousands of Israelis abroad.

Israel also relied on foreign assistance more than ever before, not only for military supplies but for direct military action. The United States played a central role in both defensive operations and active combat. Yet despite these efforts, Israel lacks a comprehensive solution to the missile threat.

Victory without deterrence

The war against Hamas has become the longest in Israel’s history. It began with the horrific massacre of October 7 and has since expanded to include Hezbollah’s strikes on the northern front, forcing mass evacuations that have yet to be reversed.

By physical metrics, such as territory held, enemy losses, and weapons neutralized, Israel appears to hold the advantage. Hamas and Hezbollah have been significantly weakened; Syria’s regime has collapsed; and Iran has lost key military leaders and critical infrastructure. But diplomatic influence tells a different story.

Israel’s global standing has suffered dramatically, while the Palestinians’ diplomatic status has, if anything, improved. This erosion threatens Israel’s science, culture, economy, and most urgently, its security. International calls for boycotts are gaining traction across sectors.

Hamas's strategy: Time and optics

In Operation Gideon’s Chariots, Israeli forces endured painful losses. Though Hamas’s casualties have been far greater, the terror organization has proven indifferent to the human cost, even when it involves the deaths of uninvolved civilians. Hamas knows that time is on its side. It has turned daily images of Gaza's casualties, particularly women and children, into a weapon to erode Israel’s legitimacy.

Since its establishment, Israel has lived under the shadow of conflict. The war did not begin in 1948 but with the Balfour Declaration. Every lull has merely preceded renewed hostilities. Despite assertions that tougher strikes will yield stronger deterrence, the reality is more sobering: hard blows have not prevented renewed violence.

Even in the wake of the Six Day War, when Egypt’s military was decimated, the result was not long-term deterrence but rather the War of Attrition and eventually the Yom Kippur War. Likewise, it is doubtful that the damage inflicted on Gaza and Iran will deter the Houthis, terror militias, or Iran itself.

One lesson remains clear: war inflates the defense budget and extends military service. Once lengthened, it is rarely shortened. As weapons systems advance, surprise attacks remain a constant threat. Relative peace, to date, has only come through peace treaties, such as those signed with Egypt and Jordan.

The path forward

The central question now is how to proceed. Israel’s first priority must be to restore its international standing. If the defense budget is to grow substantially, then investment must also go into diplomacy and public diplomacy, particularly targeting the Muslim world. Understanding the damage caused by Qatar’s hostile media apparatus is essential to formulating a response.

At the same time, Israel must develop policies that can be presented with coherent, rational justifications. One of the war’s most dangerous consequences has been the rise in racism and hostility toward Israeli Arabs and Palestinians. It is true that some Arab Israelis took part in riots during Operation Guardian of the Walls, and that there are nationalist factions opposed to the Zionist state.

But that is only part of the picture. Arab citizens of Israel are integral to the nation’s healthcare system, its labor force, and its economy. Many are willing and capable of representing Israel’s position abroad. Strengthening moderate voices within the Arab sector is a strategic Israeli interest, all the more so for the Druze community, whose loyalty to the state is unwavering.

Yet we are witnessing racist attacks on Arab drivers and even expressions of joy when Iranian missiles strike Arab villages. This is unacceptable.

Far more concerning is the situation in Judea and Samaria, where Jewish terror is being perpetrated on a wide scale against Palestinian residents. This violence is not being stopped by security forces. On the contrary, it appears to enjoy implicit support, not only from local communities but from segments of the current government and its coalition partners.

Worse still, Jewish extremists have turned their attacks against IDF soldiers and military property. Why? One explanation is that even minimal enforcement against Jewish violence enrages its supporters. Another is that these radicals are not content with passive tolerance; they demand active support from Israeli security forces in their assaults on Palestinians.

The state’s response to Jewish terror has been strikingly mild, a stark contrast to what would happen if Palestinian terrorists launched similar attacks. Pretending that such acts are “ordinary crime” while labeling Palestinian violence as “terror” is a dangerous double standard. Terrorism is the deliberate targeting of innocents for political reasons. The motivations behind Jewish terrorism are known and well-documented.

A ticking clock

From a national interest perspective, the continued fighting in Gaza, coupled with Jewish terrorism in the West Bank, is nothing short of disastrous. Every day this situation persists accelerates the decline of Israel’s international stature. The state has few diplomatic reserves left. The damage is not limited to its economic and cultural reputation; it is a direct threat to its security.

To recover, Israel must act wisely, on the battlefield, in the international arena, and in its own society. Victory requires more than military power. It demands moral clarity, strategic restraint, and a commitment to the values that underpin the Jewish state.