Iranian missile exercises may be preparation for surprise attack, Israel warns US - Axios - Tobias Holcman

 

by Tobias Holcman

The report notes that the likelihood of an attack is below 50%, but an Israeli source said that "nobody is willing to take the risk and just say it is only an exercise."

 

Iranian missiles are displayed at the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps(IRGC) Aerospace Force Museum in Tehran, Iran, November 12, 2025

(photo credit: MAJID ASGARIPOUR/WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY) VIA REUTERS)

Israel warned the United States that a missile exercise by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) could be used as a screen to prepare a possible missile strike against the country, Axios reported on Sunday.

"The chances for an Iranian attack are less than 50%, but nobody is willing to take the risk and just say it is only an exercise," an Israeli source said, according to the report.

Axios cited three Israeli and US sources with knowledge on the issue, assuring that the Israeli government has "lowered the tolerance bar after the October 7 attacks and will not allow any type of threats."

The American source told Axios that US intelligence has not received any indication that Iran is preparing for an attack against Israel.

The sources also warned that the biggest risk is a war breaking out due to a miscalculation, with both sides believing they will be attacked first and launching a preventive strike as a countermeasure.

Members of the IRGC step on US and Israeli flags during the 46th anniversary of the U.S. expulsion from Iran, in Tehran, November 4, 2025. (credit: MAJID ASGARIPOUR/WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY) VIA REUTERS)

Zamir tells Cooper about Iranian exercises

IDF Chief of Staff, Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir reportedly told US Central Command, Adm. Brad Cooper, about the IRGC missile exercises, urging CENTCOM to prepare for a possible rapid response against a surprise attack.

Axios said that both the IDF and CENTCOM refused to comment on the matter.

According to these same sources, Iran's missile capabilities are still below the 3,000 missiles and 400 launchers that it had before the 12-day war in June, but it has started rebuilding its force in recent months.

This growing threat was confirmed by US Sen. Lindsey Graham (R - South Carolina) in an interview with The Jerusalem Post on Sunday, who assured that the Iranian missile capabilities now pose as grave a threat as its nuclear program.

Amichai Stein contributed to this report. 

Tobias Holcman

Source: https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/article-880954

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