The battle for the Golan - Prof. Eyal Zisser

by Prof. Eyal Zisser

The fact that the Assad regime is convinced the rebels are backed by Israel and Jordan and its belief that those two countries are trying to establish security buffer zones along their borders with Syria only reinforce the motivation of Assad and Hezbollah to retake the Golan area from the rebels.

Less than a month after Israel, according to foreign reports, thwarted an attempt by Hezbollah to establish a stronghold on the Syrian side of the border in the Golan Heights, Hezbollah fighters have launched an offensive against Syrian rebel forces there, meaning that control of the border area could soon change hands. 

In recent days, Hezbollah fighters, along with Assad regime troops, have been conducting a major assault against rebels in the border area. As of now, Hezbollah and the Assad regime have been able to retake a number of cities and villages, including on several strategic mounds that overlook the Israel-Syria border, as well as along the Damascus-Daraa road. 

These developments have not fundamentally changed the course of the war in Syria. None of the sides -- neither the regime nor the rebels -- has the ability the defeat the other. Both sides are too weak, too bloodied and too exhausted to win a decisive victory. In the meantime, all they are doing is drawing blood from each other. Those who are paying the price are the citizens of Syria, or least those who still remain in their homes and on their lands. Assad relies primarily on support from the Alawite sect, and he is now scratching the bottom of the barrel in his efforts to recruit new fighters. The dispatch of a few thousand trained Hezbollah fighters may help Assad win some battles here and there, but it is not enough to bring about overall victory for him in the war. 

Yet, the battle for the Golan area is of great importance -- for the rebels, for Assad, for Hezbollah and, yes, for Israel. Last summer, the rebels took over most of the border area and pushed Assad regime forces off a majority of the mounds overlooking the Israeli side of the border. This sparked concern in Israel that the rebels, many of whom belong to Islamic extremist movements, such as the Nusra Front, would act against us, something which has yet to happen. 

The takeover of the Golan area by the rebels also brought them closer to Damascus, placing the Syrian capital under serious threat. As a result of this, Hezbollah sent forces to try to oust the rebels from their newly-seized positions, like it did in Qusair in May 2013 and Kalmon Ridge in the spring of 2014.

The fact that the Assad regime is convinced the rebels are backed by Israel and Jordan and its belief that those two countries are trying to establish security buffer zones along their borders with Syria only reinforce the motivation of Assad and Hezbollah to retake the Golan area from the rebels. Thanks to Hezbollah's help, it is very possible that Assad will reestablish control over the entire length of the Israel-Syria border. But as has been the case over the past four years, one victory or another by Assad or the rebels will not have any great significance on the rest of the fighting in Syria.

Israel has no apparent cause for alarm if Assad retakes the Quneitra crossing. Over the years, Assad was careful to keep the peace along the border. But while the voice is Assad's, the hands are Nasrallah's. Assad is now dependent on Iran and Hezbollah. So if the Syrian military returns to the border with Israel, the decision on whether to maintain quiet there will be Nasrallah's, no less than Assad's.

Prof. Eyal Zisser

Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=11591

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