by Prof. Eyal Zisser
The fact that the Assad regime is convinced the rebels are backed by Israel and Jordan and its belief that those two countries are trying to establish security buffer zones along their borders with Syria only reinforce the motivation of Assad and Hezbollah to retake the Golan area from the rebels.
Less than a month after
Israel, according to foreign reports, thwarted an attempt by Hezbollah
to establish a stronghold on the Syrian side of the border in the Golan
Heights, Hezbollah fighters have launched an offensive against Syrian
rebel forces there, meaning that control of the border area could soon
change hands.
In recent days,
Hezbollah fighters, along with Assad regime troops, have been conducting
a major assault against rebels in the border area. As of now, Hezbollah
and the Assad regime have been able to retake a number of cities and
villages, including on several strategic mounds that overlook the
Israel-Syria border, as well as along the Damascus-Daraa road.
These developments have
not fundamentally changed the course of the war in Syria. None of the
sides -- neither the regime nor the rebels -- has the ability the defeat
the other. Both sides are too weak, too bloodied and too exhausted to
win a decisive victory. In the meantime, all they are doing is drawing
blood from each other. Those who are paying the price are the citizens
of Syria, or least those who still remain in their homes and on their
lands. Assad relies primarily on support from the Alawite sect, and he
is now scratching the bottom of the barrel in his efforts to recruit new
fighters. The dispatch of a few thousand trained Hezbollah fighters may
help Assad win some battles here and there, but it is not enough to
bring about overall victory for him in the war.
Yet, the battle for the
Golan area is of great importance -- for the rebels, for Assad, for
Hezbollah and, yes, for Israel. Last summer, the rebels took over most
of the border area and pushed Assad regime forces off a majority of the
mounds overlooking the Israeli side of the border. This sparked concern
in Israel that the rebels, many of whom belong to Islamic extremist
movements, such as the Nusra Front, would act against us, something
which has yet to happen.
The takeover of the
Golan area by the rebels also brought them closer to Damascus, placing
the Syrian capital under serious threat. As a result of this, Hezbollah
sent forces to try to oust the rebels from their newly-seized positions,
like it did in Qusair in May 2013 and Kalmon Ridge in the spring of
2014.
The fact that the Assad
regime is convinced the rebels are backed by Israel and Jordan and its
belief that those two countries are trying to establish security buffer
zones along their borders with Syria only reinforce the motivation of
Assad and Hezbollah to retake the Golan area from the rebels. Thanks to
Hezbollah's help, it is very possible that Assad will reestablish
control over the entire length of the Israel-Syria border. But as has
been the case over the past four years, one victory or another by Assad
or the rebels will not have any great significance on the rest of the
fighting in Syria.
Israel has no apparent cause for
alarm if Assad retakes the Quneitra crossing. Over the years, Assad was
careful to keep the peace along the border. But while the voice is
Assad's, the hands are Nasrallah's. Assad is now dependent on Iran and
Hezbollah. So if the Syrian military returns to the border with Israel,
the decision on whether to maintain quiet there will be Nasrallah's, no
less than Assad's.
Prof. Eyal Zisser
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=11591
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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