by Ana Bersky
Hezbollah agrees to withdraw beyond Litani River as US pushes for pre-election deal, but Israeli officials remain skeptical
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Despite Hezbollah’s declarations throughout the war, the terrorist organization has agreed to drop its demands and is ready to withdraw beyond the Litani River, Lebanon's MTV website, which is associated with Hezbollah opponents, reported Wednesday night.
The report indicated that Hezbollah agreed to establish a demilitarized zone, with all its weapons to be moved beyond the river. It was also claimed that Hezbollah no longer insists on being directly connected to events in Gaza.
MTV Lebanon noted that a three-day ceasefire draft is being discussed in Lebanon, and American officials are expected to present it to Israel in the coming days. It was also noted that Amos Hochstein, Biden's envoy to the region, told Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati that he sensed a change in Netanyahu's position, which gave him hope regarding the contacts.
Regarding this change, Hochstein said he would travel to Israel tomorrow.
However, Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri was quoted in Arab media saying, "It's out of the question to change the wording of UN Resolution 1701 even by one word. The ball is now in Netanyahu's court. I've completed all points related to the ceasefire, army deployment, and implementation of Resolution 1701. We're waiting for Hochstein's understandings with Netanyahu."
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Additionally, Lebanon's Prime Minister addressed the war that began with Hezbollah's terrorist organization firing over a year ago, saying, "We hope that within hours or days a ceasefire agreement will be reached."
Senior Israeli sources told Maariv on Wednesday that the American administration is very active in both directions: in efforts to advance negotiations for a hostage deal and ceasefire in Gaza, and also in attempting to bring about a ceasefire arrangement in the north.
This, according to the sources, stems from the desire to achieve significant progress before the US elections on November 5. American sources told Maariv that the Israeli side has shown willingness and interest in moving forward with an agreement in the north. Still, it's doubtful that the work will be completed before the elections.
The proposed deal
According to reports, White House envoy Amos Hochstein is expected to arrive in Israel and Lebanon in the coming days, hoping to reach final agreements before the US elections. Under the reported agreement, northern residents would return to their homes, while most IDF forces would withdraw from Lebanon.
On the other hand, government sources express skepticism. According to these sources, "Israel will not back down from any of the demands it set as conditions for reaching an arrangement. At this point, we don't identify Hezbollah's willingness to agree to the outline and conditions we presented, with all due respect to the American administration's investment and effort."
As mentioned, Israel estimates that the northern arrangement won't be achieved by the US elections, and after the elections, the administration is expected to apply massive pressure on Israel, including measures at the UN and in weapons supply.
Avichai Stern, mayor of Kiryat Shmona, made a firm statement to city residents expressing his opposition to immediate return.
"They won't buy us with money that will run out quickly," Stern said, "Don't return until we tell you to return and not a minute before."
Moshe Davidovich, head of Mateh Asher Regional Council and chairman of the Confrontation Line forum, also responded to the diplomatic talks, saying, "I don't interfere with the IDF's military considerations, but at the political level – the real threat to our residents hasn't been removed! There's direct anti-tank missile fire on border communities, and it's still happening."
Following Monday's approval of the UNRWA ban laws, which passed with an overwhelming majority of coalition and opposition Knesset members, Israel estimates that the American administration won't be satisfied with criticism and condemnations against the action but is expected to implement ‘consequences.’ The assessment is that what's being considered in Washington is passing a binding resolution in the UN Security Council calling for an immediate ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah.
French President Emmanuel Macron has been talking about the need and intention to raise such a resolution in the UN Security Council for some time. Israel has estimated that so far, the initiative hasn't been advanced at the request of the American administration, which isn't interested in sharp measures before the elections.
According to an Israeli source, "The assessment is that we'll see the implications of approving the UNRWA laws after November 5. With no low probability, after the elections, the Americans will give the green light to advance the ceasefire in the north, including a binding Security Council resolution. Ahead of this move, President Biden's special envoy, Amos Hochstein, has again arrived in the region."
"What's being advanced and what will likely come up is what's called 'Resolution 1701+', giving Israel some freedom of action to prevent Hezbollah from rearming. There's an assessment that shortly after the elections, an effort will be made to impose a ceasefire in the north on Israel based on Resolution 1701+, with the next threat being a weapons embargo."
Ana Bersky
Source: https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-826921
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