by Seth J. Frantzman
Leaked Lebanon deal draft emerges as Gaza talks advance, but experts warn against repeat of past failures.
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A leaked draft of a potential ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon was broadcast by Israel’s Kan on Wednesday. The draft is an “announcement of a cessation of hostilities and related commitments” that could happen between Lebanon and Israel.
At the same time, there is talk of a potential ceasefire in Gaza. This is one of the first times since the war began that there has appeared to be movement on two fronts. This presents Israel with a unique opportunity. However, it also has potential pitfalls. A year of war has been difficult for Israel.
Israel’s enemies have suffered serious losses. It’s possible that a deal with Lebanon could also lead to a ceasefire in Gaza. However, the terrorist groups will still look to recover in the wake of any deal.
The deal with Lebanon would appear to mean the Lebanese Armed Forces would deploy to southern Lebanon and that Israel would withdraw from Lebanon. The agreement is not with Hezbollah but with Lebanon, and thus, it asks Lebanon to do what it has refused to do since 2006.
The agreement references Lebanon confiscating weapons from “armed groups.” This is the Orwellian term employed to hide the word “Hezbollah.” Hezbollah had 150,000 rockets before the war began and has stockpiled more arms than many small countries over the last decades. Yet the wording “armed groups” is always used in these documents so that a country such as Lebanon doesn’t actually have to fulfill the agreement.
One of the pitfalls of the agreement is that it doesn’t spell out how exactly Lebanon will behave differently than it did after 2006. The Lebanese armed forces have never been willing to confront Hezbollah. Using terms like “armed groups” means that the Lebanese army can claim they didn’t see any “armed groups” because they view Hezbollah as the “resistance.”
Nevertheless, there is hope that Hezbollah will be willing to withdraw from the border. The group has suffered blows since the Israeli Northern Arrows operation began on September 23. The group has lost some part of its arsenal. Israel’s Defense Minister has said it may have lost up to 80 percent of its rockets. This would leave it with some 30,000 rockets, still a significant arsenal. It also has its precision attack drones.
Hezbollah may have lost 1,000 to 2,000 fighters in the war. It is never clear if the estimates are verifiable. It has also lost many bunkers and storage facilities near the border. This deprives it of some of its anti-tank missiles and firing positions.
Along with the reports of the potential ceasefire, there is hope that Lebanon’s Prime Minister Najib Mikati is enthusiastic about a deal. There is no doubt the US administration wants a win before leaving office. Regardless of who wins the US election, the Biden administration is now wrapping up its legacy.
Sending envoys such as Amos Hochstein or Brett McGurk to the region this week is a sign the White House takes this seriously. However, one might wonder how Hochstein could achieve a deal when he pushed for the maritime deal in 2022 with Lebanon that led directly to Hezbollah escalation. These kinds of deals with Lebanon have not had the desired results in the past.
There are other elements at play. Hezbollah has a new leader named Naim Qassem. He has been a second in command for Hezbollah for decades and, therefore, is familiar with the group’s workings and losses. He may want to shape his legacy and also save his own head by agreeing to a ceasefire. His successors have both been killed, including Hezbollah’s long-time leader Hassan Nasrallah.
The Iranian Tasnim New
A report at Iranian Tasnim News says that various Palestinian factions are also weighing a potential ceasefire. However, the main message from these groups, such as the PFLP and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, is that a ceasefire must meet their needs. They don’t say exactly what these “conditions” are, but they imply that they will want to feel they have come out of a year of war with some kind of claim of victory. What they mean is they think having survived the war is enough. PIJ and PFLP haven’t suffered as serious blows as Hamas. Reports say that around 17,000 or more terrorists have been eliminated in Gaza. Thousands remain.
When Hamas began the war, Iran prodded Hezbollah to join the war. Qassem, the new head of Hezbollah, told NBC News in November 2023 that "Hezbollah participates [in the war] for the sake of lowering the pressure on Gaza.” Now, Gaza has been largely ruined in the war, and Hezbollah has suffered blows. If both Hezbollah and Hamas assume they can achieve a ceasefire, then this might remove the conditions that brought Hezbollah into the war in the first place.
Iranian state media is also reporting on the potential ceasefire. IRNA noted that “Lebanon’s Prime Minister Najib Mikati has expressed hope that a ceasefire will be established in his country in the next few hours.” Lebanon claims it is ready to implement UN Security Council Resolution 1701. However, that resolution has existed since 2006, and Lebanon has never implemented it. Instead, Lebanon let Hezbollah grow from a group that had 13,000 rockets to 150,000 rockets. Hezbollah has exponentially expanded since 2006. It’s possible that Lebanon “wants” 1701 to return because, under 1701, it built Hezbollah into a massive war machine, threatened Israel, and caused a massive war.
It is important that Lebanon is paying some lip service to a ceasefire via Iranian media. This shows that Iran may also favor a ceasefire. The question is whether Iran thinks it has benefited from this year-long war. Has Iran preserved Hezbollah and Hamas so that it can help them recover in the wake of the war?
Lebanon’s Prime Minister says "a ceasefire must be established with American guarantees.” Lebanon’s Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri has also said there will be no change in the UN Security Council Resolution 1701 and that it must be implemented word for word. This would seem to imply a possible return to 2007 and a return of Hezbollah to the border with UNIFIL and the Lebanese Armed Forces only pretending to implement the resolution. The reason it implies a return to 2007 is that Israel has wanted an improved version of 1701 that gives Israel more freedom of action to stop Hezbollah from re-arming.
While it’s possible a two-front war could be ended by agreements, there are many questions about implementation and also about how Iran or the groups it backs will respond. Hezbollah and Hamas likely want a break from the fighting to regroup. However, if they regroup as they have in the past, then it’s not clear how this year of war will have long-term strategic shifts that differ from the outcome of the 2006 war in Lebanon or the 2009 or 2014 war in Gaza.
Seth J. Frantzman
Source: https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-826926
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