Rival Peace Plans Won't Save Syria - Jonathan Spyer

by Jonathan Spyer


^{Originally published under the title, "Syria's New Diplomacy."}

The Syria peace plan put forth by Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif mandates a ceasefire in place and formation of a transitional government.

As the civil war over the ruins of Syria grinds on into its fifth year, the fighting seems nowhere near an end. Indeed, there is no longer a single war taking place in the country. Rather, as Syria physically divides into separate entities, so the conflict, too, further subdivides, spawning new conflicts.

There are today no less than five different conflicts taking place within the borders of the country: the contests between the Sunni Arab rebels and the Assad regime/Hezbollah/Iran (the original war which brought about the others); the Kurdish YPG's fight against Islamic State; intermittent clashes between the Sunni Arab rebels and Islamic State; Islamic State's own war against the Assad regime; and now also the renewed war between Turkey and the PKK, which is being played out partly on Syrian soil.

The presence of these five interlocking conflicts notwithstanding, efforts to make diplomatic progress toward some form of settlement, or at least freezing of the conflict, are under way.

There are today no less than five different conflicts taking place within the borders of Syria.

Recent days have seen details emerge of two rival "peace plans" for Syria. One of these is sponsored by the Iranians, the main supporters of the Assad regime, the other is the handiwork of Saudi Arabia, which wants the removal of the regime and supports elements among the Sunni Arab rebellion against it.

Neither plan stands much chance of implementation. But the content of the plans and their very existence demonstrate that the Syrian situation is not static. They also indicate the extent to which the aims of the backers of the combatant sides are currently irreconcilable.

The Iranian proposal, according to a report in the Araby al-Jadeed newspaper on Monday, constitutes a plan for the freezing of the conflict in place and the subsequent de facto partition of Syria. 

According to the newspaper, the plan is being promoted by Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif during his current round of meetings with regional officials.

The plan proposes that each side would hold on to its current areas of control, except for the city of Aleppo, which would come under international supervision.

The regime and the rebels would then cooperate with the international coalition in the fight against Islamic State. Negotiations between the sides would continue, with the intention of forming a "national government, writing a new constitution and holding nationally monitored elections."

The Assad regime now controls just over 20 percent of Syrian territory.

The regime, according to the plan, would keep control of "Damascus, the Syrian-Lebanese border, Qalamoun, western Ghouta, Zabadani, Homs and the area to its west all the way to the Syrian coast, and Tartus Port."

This is in essence the area controlled by the regime today. Yet the apparent willingness of the regime's backers to "settle" for this area rather than to continue to hold out for the eventual reconquest of the entire country (Syrian President Bashar Assad's aim throughout the war) reflects the declining military fortunes of the Assad regime.

The regime now controls only just over 20 percent of the area of Syria. In the north, it is reeling from the hammer blows inflicted by the Jaysh al-Fatah (Army of Conquest) rebel coalition. This coalition includes some of the strongest Islamist rebel forces in Syria. Jabhat al-Nusra, the Syrian franchise of al-Qaida, is a component part of it, as is Ahrar al-Sham, the most powerful of the "homegrown" Salafi groups on the Syrian battlefield.

It is supported by Qatar, Turkey and Saudi Arabia. The Saudi provision of US Tow antitank missiles, transported across the border from Turkey, is playing a telling role in the fighting, reducing the regime's advantage in heavy weaponry.

As of now, Jaysh al-Fatah is attempting to destroy the final regime positions on the Al-Ghab plain. Loss of these positions raises the frightening prospect for the regime of the front line moving into the populated parts of Latakia Province, the heartland of its support.

Already, the Alawi villages in Latakia are within range of the rebels' missiles. Entry into Latakia would effectively end Assad's hopes of preserving intact a safe area of the country for the members of his sect and other supporters of the regime.

Should the pivotal Joureen base in Ghab fall to the rebels, the regime would then face the possibility of its supply lines to the city of Hama further south being cut off.

The regime is therefore fighting desperately to hold its positions on the flat, barren Sahel al-Ghab. Hezbollah fighters are there, fighting alongside Shi'ite "volunteers" from as far afield as Afghanistan.

The motley collection of regime defenders in Ghab reflects the key difficulty that Assad has faced since the commencement of the war. The narrow base of support of his regime has meant that he has faced severe challenges in mustering sufficient manpower to defend the areas under his control.

A counterproposal put forward by Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir demands Assad's immediate departure from power.

The solution until now has been to reduce these areas. At a certain point, of course, the shrinking size of the regime's domain raises the question of its continued viability. This point may now be approaching.
The Saudis, however, have made clear that the current Iranian proposals are unacceptable. The sticking point, as Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir outlined in a statement this week, is that Riyadh wants Assad's immediate departure from power rather than a continued role for him in any transitional phase.

"There is no place for Assad in the future of Syria," Jubeir said, speaking in Moscow after meeting Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. "Assad is part of the problem, not part of the solution."

Saudi counterproposals, as reported in the Al-Hayat newspaper this week, envisage the immediate cessation of Iranian and other outside support for the regime and the departure of Hezbollah fighters from Syria, followed by new, UN-supervised presidential and parliamentary elections, after the stepping down of Assad.

The differences are familiar and not yet close to being bridged. The diplomacy, as ever, mirrors the military situation on the ground. Assad's fortunes have declined. This is leading to reduced ambitions and consequently increased flexibility on the part of his backers. But there are no signs yet that his allies are about to desert him, nor that their reduced demands are anywhere close to being acceptable to the forces behind the rebels. So the fight goes on.

More importantly, it should be remembered that the war between Assad and the Sunni rebels is now only one of the several conflict systems that have torn Syria apart. So even if Assad's declining fortunes were to lead to his departing the scene, the war for Syria's succession, and the suffering of its inhabitants, would almost certainly not be at an end.


Jonathan Spyer, a fellow at the Middle East Forum, is director of the Rubin Center for Research in International Affairs and author of The Transforming Fire: The Rise of the Israel-Islamist Conflict (Continuum, 2011).

Source: http://www.meforum.org/5439/syria-peace-plans

Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.

The IDF's not-so-secret secret unit - Ronen Shiviak

by Ronen Shiviak

When the soldiers in the Hatzav unit of the IDF log onto Facebook, they are actually entering the battlefield • In this day and age, every Palestinian kid with a smartphone can help the IDF defeat the enemy, and it is Hatzav's job to make sure they do.

 

The IDF's Hatzav unit in action | Photo credit: Gideon Markowicz

A body in a burning vehicle, with dollar bills, euro notes and Jordanian dinars fluttering in the air every which way. Suddenly, dozens of Gaza residents descend on them in a rapid fury. This surreal scene happened in northern Gaza City at the start of Operation Protective Edge after a missile fired by the Israeli Air Force killed Hamas "finance minister" Mohammed Talat al-Ghoul. The attack also blew the cover off of the treasury chief's secret stash of money that was hidden in the trunk of his car. 

These embarrassing images -- certainly from Hamas' standpoint -- were never shown on the terrorist organization's official media organs. However, they were immediately posted and shared throughout Facebook and other social media by ordinary Gazans. This provided the IDF's intelligence-gathering units with valuable information.

The soldiers who serve in the Hatzav Unit used the data in two ways. First, they disseminated it to other intelligence agencies in order to offer definitive proof that al-Ghoul was taken out. Secondly, they passed these images on to the IDF Spokesperson's Unit (which always makes sure to have a representative in the Hatzav offices), which in turn distributed it to every possible media outlet in order to score public relations points by pointing out that "while the residents of Gaza go hungry, Hamas operatives are traveling around with millions on their cars."

"Until a few years ago, in order to get these kinds of pictures, the IDF needed to use technological means like drones, which provided photographs that were taken from a great distance," says Lt. Col. R., 42, the commander of the Hatzav intelligence unit. "Today, thanks to the social media revolution, it is easy to obtain high-resolution pictures that were taken from a short distance and from a good angle. In addition to the public relations benefits, it is also the best evidence that you hit exactly the person you intended to hit."

Make no mistake, the evidence gathered by the Hatzav unit is invaluable to the officers in the various combat units. "When I paid a visit to the Gaza Division during Operation Protective Edge," Lt. Col. R. continues, "the officer responsible for analyzing the results of the attacks by our forces told me, 'Tell your guys many thanks, because without you I don't know what I'd do.'"

The social media revolution that has taken hold in recent years has infused new life into the quite modest offices of the Hatzav unit in the Intelligence Corps headquarters, located in central Israel. In years past, Hatzav wasn't thought of as one of the army's more prestigious units. Its main job was to provide summaries of government-affiliated Arab media reports. Today, however, the situation has changed dramatically.

"Our main preoccupation is social media, not television and radio," says Lt. Col. R. "In the era of social media, readily available intelligence becomes much more significant. We aren't just talking about propaganda anymore, but about reporters and citizens who post uncensored, unfiltered information in real time -- and this is valuable intelligence."

In light of this new reality, the nature of the training and instruction that (a "small number" of) soldiers undergo has changed. Today, Hatzav is looking not just for soldiers with knowledge of spoken foreign languages in target countries but also -- and in particular -- those who live in the world of the Internet and have a good grasp of social media. As such, most of the unit's troops are young conscripts. Indeed, one would be hard-pressed to find officers over 30 years of age.

Rapid response

This up-to-date knowledge is what enables the unit to score great achievements. For example, a year ago, when three boys -- Naftali Fraenkel, Gil-ad Shaer and Eyal Yifrach -- were kidnapped in Gush Etzion (and subsequently murdered), the unit was determined to get a claim of responsibility for the kidnapping. "From the moment the abduction took place, we looked at open media constantly in order to try and fish out this piece of information [Hamas' claim of responsibility]," says Lt. Col. R.

"On August 20, 2014, there was an esoteric conference of sorts held by these clerics in Turkey," he said. "But we had a gut feeling that some statement would come out of there, and so we logged on to the live feed on YouTube."

The officers' intuition paid off. Salah al-Arouri, a senior Hamas official responsible for the organization's activities in the West Bank, acknowledged the group's culpability in a speech.

"Once we heard this statement, we were quick to send it through every possible channel," says R. "The speed with which we pass on the information in this day and age is critical."

This was plainly illustrated in one particular event during Operation Protective Edge. Just 90 minutes before Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon and then-IDF chief of staff Benny Gantz were about to give a routine press briefing, it emerged that a rocket fired by Hamas hit a Palestinian kindergarten in the Shati refugee camp.

Hamas' official outlets reported that 10 children were killed, and they were quick to blame the IDF for intentionally slaughtering youngsters. What the terrorist organization failed to take into account was that the area was teeming with foreign correspondents who were staying in the strip of hotels located in the school's vicinity. These correspondents have a special fondness for posting updates on Twitter. In a short span of time, a number of reporters tweeted photographs proving that the rocket was in fact fired by Hamas and not Israel. In other words, the incident had nothing to do with the IDF.

Hatzav knew how to make use of the information in real time. Before the news conference even started, the chief of staff was given an aerial photograph proving beyond a shadow of a doubt that the rocket was fired by Palestinians. The only thing left for Gantz to do was to show the photograph to the reporters and to say with full confidence that this event was the result of an errant Palestinian rocket.

"If we were an hour late in noticing the tweets, then our work would have been irrelevant," R. says. "The chief of staff would have been asked questions like, 'Why is Israel killing Palestinian children?' And he would not have had an answer."

One of the foreign reporters who tweeted on the matter was Italian correspondent Gabriele Barbati, who was shrewd enough to return to Italy the very next day. It was only after he arrived back home that he tweeted more information about what went on behind the scenes.

"Outside of Gaza, far from Hamas attempts at revenge; this was an errant Hamas rocket that killed children in Shati," he tweeted. Barbati wasn't the only one who tweeted after leaving the Strip, safe from Hamas' tentacles.

Learning from failure

It seems as though the IDF and Hamas have been playing a game of cat and mouse. During Operation Protective Edge, the spokesperson for the Palestinian Interior Ministry launched an aggressive campaign warning the public in Gaza against Israeli surveillance on social media. Contrary to what one might expect in a dictatorial society, these PR blitzes did not work. 

"Even in such a closed society that is tightly controlled by Hamas, things come out and emerge," says R. "There are smartphones everywhere, and all of a sudden everyone is a journalist and a photographer that provides information."

When Lt. Col. R. uses the word "everywhere," he is quite accurate. 

Second Lt. Y., 22, heads a class of soldiers in Hatzav. His department is responsible for monitoring social media.

"Internet usage in Gaza and the West Bank is at around 40%," she said. "It is accessed through every means available, including smartphones, particularly among young people."

These impressive statistics not only enable the army to collect tactical intelligence (like tweets about specific operations), but it also allows to gather strategic data about the public mood. Strategic data refers to information that sheds light on dilemmas like whether the Palestinian public in Gaza supports an escalation of attacks against Israel, what the chances are of a coup in Gaza, and whether the Palestinian public supports the Islamic State group.

"We recently received a telephone call from the office of the head of Military Intelligence," says Lt. Col. R. with a smile. "We were told, 'The head of MI wants to know by the afternoon what the Palestinian public thinks of so and so. Good luck. You have two hours.'"

Such a request from the commander of MI is not far-fetched. Indeed, social media has turned this age-old goal -- knowing what the masses think -- into something that has never been more feasible. Special software enables the army to catalog and store the various tweets and status posts (by enabling keyword searches) while providing an eye-opening picture using colorful charts and graphs.

Despite the advances made in the field, the IDF has been burned, particularly with its failure to predict the Arab Spring. The previous head of MI, Maj.-Gen. Aviv Kochavi, said in his farewell address that one of his greatest failures was the inability to forecast the ouster of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.

"The revolution in Egypt surprised everybody, including Mubarak," says R. "Nobody in academia, the press or the military saw it coming. Everybody missed it."

The MI high command did not take much solace in the fact that they were not alone. In the aftermath of its Egypt failure, the unit launched a massive, comprehensive internal investigation that prompted a major shift in the manner in which public moods are studied. This led to a significant upgrade in its ability to monitor and analyze trends in public opinion.

"This is a very difficult, complex area," says R. "Social media is not the be-all-end-all. It only represents the specific slice of the population that uses it. Usually young people and those who are educated use it, so it needs to be viewed with the care and skepticism it deserves."

Despite all these caveats and caution signs, Hatzav soldiers are convinced that they are able to provide a credible, up-to-the minute picture of the zeitgeist that has taken hold in the countries that they are charged with monitoring. 

"The guys here are honing their skills, learning which is the most credible Internet forum in Gaza and which Twitter users are trustworthy, etc.," says R.

Hatzav analysts assert that the talk on Palestinian social media does not resemble Israeli social media, which likes to analyze the winner and losers in the war. "You won't find criticism of Hamas for losing the war on Palestinian social media," says 2nd Lt. Y. "The average citizen doesn't focus on the question of who won and who lost, but on how he or she copes with what the day brings. It is living in a state of fear that things will get worse, a fear of entering into another round of conflict with Israel before the rehabilitation is complete. The infrastructure in the Gaza Strip is in a very bad state, and the people there don't see a light at the end of the tunnel from that standpoint."

Y. notes that a year after the war's conclusion, there is a noticeable change in that the Palestinian public is less active in -- and less encouraging of -- terrorist attacks. 

"The prevailing mood among the public is one of despair and cynicism," she says. "In the context of terrorist activities, you will often see people write, 'What does it matter already?' or 'What good will it do if I do this or that?'"

These sentiments reflected the public mood throughout last year with the exception of the last two months of 2014, when public interest clearly shifted in the wake of a wave of grass-roots terrorism in Jerusalem and the surrounding area that year (vehicular ramming, the axe and cleaver attack in a synagogue in Har Nof, the murder of Palestinian teen Mohammed Abu Khdeir, etc.).

"We saw very emotionally charged social media discourse that was instigated by Hamas, and the citizens took part in this," 2nd Lt. Y. says. "There were calls to commit terrorist attacks against Israel, and the people were very active.

"At one point, we noticed a campaign that was going viral on social media and the press, encouraging car-ramming attacks by using a play on words similar to the Arabic acronym for Islamic State," says Lt. A., 22 -- the officer charged with overseeing the Palestinian division in Hatzav. 

"We passed on our observations to the higher-ups. Shortly afterward, we saw the prime minister using the information we provided, and in his remarks to the press before the start of a cabinet meeting, he spoke of the disturbing campaign and the escalation in rhetoric and incitement."

Another notable achievement which Hatzav can take credit for is the fact that they foresaw that there would be no popular uprising on Nakba Day (May 15). "Part of our success is also saying that things won't happen," said Lt. Col. R. "There was a fear that things would get out of hand because of the fact that it was the first Nakba Day after Operation Protective Edge and because the peace process was stuck, but we knew that it wouldn't happen since we didn't notice any mass preparation for it on social media."

Nonetheless, there are times when the most valuable piece of intelligence is hidden in enemy propaganda. Such a "treasure" was discovered by Hatzav analysts in recent weeks while looking over a Hamas commercial on its official television network. In the clip, tunnel-diggers are referred to as "heroes" for the effort they put into their work.

The clip was designed to raise morale among the terrorists involved in digging the tunnels, particularly after a number of them died as a result of accidents. 

"This is an amazing public relations weapon," says Lt. Col. R. "At a time when Gaza is not being rebuilt and the world is asking us why there are restrictions on the supplies and materials being allowed into the Strip, we can use this video and tell the world, 'Look at what they are doing.'"

The Hezbollah 'chatterbox'

Another source of worry and concern for the IDF in general -- and Hatzav in particular -- is the phenomenon known as Islamic State. Hatzav is especially interested in whether the group has managed to infiltrate the countries neighboring Israel. When it comes to the Gaza Strip, analysts have a clear answer.

"In all of the studies that we have done thus far, we have not noticed any support for Islamic State among the public in the Gaza Strip," says Lt. Col. R. "On the contrary, we've noticed quite a bit of disgust with Islamic State, disgust from the horrific and barbaric acts as well as their treatment of women."

As we all know, one can never go to sleep in the Middle East without any worries for what may come. A clip posted in early July raised the anxiety level in Hatzav. It was a claim of responsibility made by a sub-organization affiliated with Islamic State. These operatives were claiming credit for a rocket fired into Israel from the Gaza Strip.

"This clip was very disconcerting because for the first time we saw an Islamic State-style event in the Gaza Strip," says R. "It was the same logo, the same film production, the same rhetoric. It sent shock waves through the system."

But the social mediasphere also provides Hatzav soldiers with occasional doses of comic relief. During the recent Ashura fast, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah gave a long speech on each day of the two-week period. This prompted social media users to invent the hashtag #hassanthechatterbox. Twitter and Facebook users even mocked the soft drink that he would sip during the course of his speech, with some claiming that it was a mixture that contained medicine and that the beverage was simply a way to conceal the fact that he was ill. 

If there is one thing that Hatzav would prefer to keep a secret, it's the sense that they are a bit envious of other intelligence units that have access to classified information.

"When I was a young soldier doing a course, I felt a bit left out knowing that I would be dealing with information that is readily available while others would be dealing with secret data," says 2nd Lt. Y. "But once I got to the unit, I discovered the breadth of the issues with which I was dealing and the respect that they deserve as well as the consequences and repercussions of the work I do. So it is hard to say that I'm missing out on anything."

Ronen Shiviak

Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_article.php?id=27603

Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.

UK: Extremists in the Heart of Government - Samuel Westrop

by Samuel Westrop

• Given the sort of views and preachers to which this member of the government's counter-terrorism programme subscribes, he should not be entrusted work in publicly funded counter-extremism. But in the eyes of the media and government, Sulaimaan Samuel's arguments against ISIS make him a suitable "moderate."
• Once again, hardline preachers and Islamist extremists have been rewarded and praised rather than ostracized. If Britain is to win the battle against Islamist extremism, public officials need to be held to account for their irresponsible choice of partners.

A British government body responsible for monitoring the counter-terrorism procedures among Britain's 44 police forces has admitted, the Daily Telegraph reports, to employing "one of Britain's most notorious Islamic extremists."

Abdullah Al-Andalusi, whose real name is Mouloud Farid, worked at Her Majesty's Inspectorate of Constabulary, at which he was privy to "highly sensitive and classified police and intelligence information."

Andalusi passed the required security checks despite his public reputation for collaborating with extremist groups such as Hizb ut-Tahrir, a global Islamist movement, and CAGE, a pro-jihadist group that worked closely with the ISIS executioner "Jihadi John."

Writing on Facebook, Andalusi has claimed the Pakistani Taliban is "demonised" by "Western media" and "Pakistani liberals." Andalusi argues that the Taliban's attempted assassination of the schoolgirl Malala Yousefzai was an unavoidable consequence of "Western foreign policy." The Taliban, Andalusi argues, are advocates of women's education, but are merely "flawed" and "paranoid" in the face of "Western imperialist encroachment."

Andalusi also writes that "democracy, secularism, feminism, humanism, and freedom" are "blatantly un-Islamic concepts."

Abdullah Al-Andalusi. (Image source: Oxford Union video screenshot)

In 2014, Andalusi and his organization, the Muslim Debate Initiative, joined forces with CAGE, Hizb ut-Tahrir and other Salafist and Muslim Brotherhood groups, to demonstrate in support of Moazzam Begg, a former Guantanamo Bay inmate who has admitted to providing "small arms and mountain tactics" at al-Qaeda training camps.

At this event, Andalusi spoke alongside notorious extremists such as Haitham Al-Haddad, who describes Jews as "apes and pigs"; Asim Qureshi, who has urged British Muslims to "support the jihad of our brothers and sisters in these countries when they are facing the oppression of the West"; and Ismail Patel, a pro-Hamas activist who advocates the killing of adulterers.

During a television appearance in early 2015, Andalusi refused to condemn the killing of apostates. Further, Andalusi refused to comment on remarks made by his occasional speaking partner, Haitham Al-Haddad, in support of wife-beating and killing homosexuals.

After the Muslim Brotherhood was elected to government in Egypt, Andalusi criticized the Brotherhood for implementing Islamic law too slowly. He stated: May "God hasten Egypt to an Islamic future ... war against oppressors, and the re-establishment of Caliphate."

Elsewhere, Andalusi writes that the fighting in Syria demonstrates the Muslim world is divided into two sides: one that is "filled with the ranks of the defeatists, the silent, the supplicators to the West, and the collaborators"; while the "other side fights with all its might for justice, liberation and the revival of Islam and Caliphate."

Evidently, Abdullah Al-Andalusi is not a suitable employee for a government body that monitors counter-terrorism efforts. He is not, however, the only Islamist to have dazzled the government and the police.

Just a few months ago, in fact, the Bedfordshire police force published a photo of one of its officers "standing against hate crime and intolerance" with Qadeer Baksh, the chairman of Luton Islamic Centre. Baksh has declared that in an "ideal" Islamic state, homosexuality would be punished with death.

Extremist influence also extends to counter-terrorism programs. Earlier this month, The Times published an editorial in praise of certain groups and individuals working to combat extremism in the wake of the Trojan Horse scandal.

The Times expressed support for a group in Birmingham called "Upstanding Neighbourhoods," a charity that ostensibly provides school pupils with a "powerful and timely counter-narrative to that of fanaticism and martyrdom."

These efforts are led by the director of the charity, Sulaimaan Samuel, who is part of the government's counter-terrorism programme, "Channel." Channel works to "safeguard those at risk of being drawn into terrorism." The government funds Samuel directly to organize workshops for Muslim youth.

Samuel's message to young children is that ISIS and its cheerleaders must be rejected. Samuel is rather more enthusiastic, however, about other Islamist causes.

His social media postings present an extremist narrative. He promotes posters celebrating "67 years of resistance" to the state of Israel. He has circulated messages in praise of the pro-jihadist group CAGE, claimed that Israel is "planning a Holocaust of Gaza's civilians," and has promoted the pro-Hamas Islamist convert, Yvonne Ridley.

Samuel has frequently circulated material written by Majid Freeman, an Islamist commentator who encourages European Muslims to "do jihad in Syria," and has posted "tributes" to the late Al Qaeda terrorist Anwar Al-Awlaki.

In addition, Samuel posts commentary by a number of notorious extremist preachers. He has promoted the views of Sheikh Khalid Yasin, an American-born preacher who calls for killing homosexuals and beating women. The convicted terrorist Michael Adebowale, who beheaded the British soldier Lee Rigby on the streets of London, has cited Yasin as his inspiration.

Given the sort of views and preachers to which Samuel subscribes, it is clear he should not be entrusted with work in publicly funded counter-extremism. But in the eyes of the media and government, Samuel's arguments against ISIS make him a suitable "moderate."

The newspapers are full of support for problematic groups. The Times has reported on the work of Tauheedul, a charity that runs seven schools across Britain. Its work in the wake of the Trojan Horse scandal has won them praise. Jonathan Simons, the head of education at Policy Exchange, a prominent London think tank, has declared: "Tauheedul Education should be the new name on every policymaker's lips."

Tauheedul, however, is a flagship charity of the Deobandi movement, a hardline sect of Islam that produced the Taliban in Afghanistan.

The movement's leading preachers in Britain include Riyadh ul Haq, who has called on Muslims to "shed blood" for Allah. According to the very same paper that has recently praised the Tauheedul charity, Ul Haq and his fellow Deobandi preachers have encouraged "a deep-rooted hatred of Western society, admiration for the Taleban and a passionate zeal for martyrdom 'in the way of Allah.'"

Tauheedul schools openly identify as Deobandi institutions.

At Tauheedul Islam Girls' High School, schoolgirls were ordered "to wear the hijab outside the school and home" and "not bring stationery to school that contains un-Islamic images."

Visitors invited to the school have included the Saudi cleric Sheikh Abdul Rahman al-Sudais, who has referred to Jews as "pigs" and "scum of the human race." Al-Sudais blames misfortune on the "sins" of women, such as "unveiling, mingling with men, and being indifferent to the hijab."[1]

Other Tauheedul-run schools have invited preachers such as Ismail Menk, who describes homosexuals as "filthy" and worse than "dogs and pigs."

In 2014, undercover footage broadcast on British television revealed staff at a Tauheedul school advocating that all music should be banned and homosexuals should be "stoned to death."

Despite this long history of extremism, in 2015, Abdul Hamid Patel, the Chief Executive of Tauheedul, was named Commander of the Order of the British Empire in the Queen's Honours list.

As well as his work at Tauheedul, Patel manages another Islamic charity with a number of prominent Salafist and Deobandi clerics, including Qari Ziyaad Patel, who has sung nasheeds [Islamic songs] in support of the Taliban.

Once again, hardline preachers and Islamist extremists have been rewarded and praised rather than ostracized. If Britain is to win the battle against Islamist extremism, public officials need to be held to account for their irresponsible choice of partners.

---

[1] John Bradley, Saudi Arabia Exposed: Inside a Kingdom in Crisis (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2006), 170.

• Follow Samuel Westrop on Twitter

Source: http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/6307/uk-extremists-government

Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.

IDF reveals defense strategy for first time in 60 years - Lilach Shoval

by Lilach Shoval

IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Gadi Eizenkot releases document affording public a rare glimpse into Israel's defense doctrine • New strategy strives to meet multidimensional threats, underscores cyberwarfare, counterintelligence, and force-building efforts.

 

IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Gadi Eizenkot | Photo credit: Yossi Zeliger

The Israel Defense Forces on Thursday released, for the first time in 60 years, a document outlining Israel's defense strategy.

IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Gadi Eizenkot's decision to make the document public is considered highly unusual, as it affords a rare glimpse into Israel's defense doctrine for the first time since the 1950s, when then-Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion approved the principles of the military's defense strategy. 

In the introduction to the document, titled "IDF Strategy," Eizenkot states that the military's basic operational strategy is based on the "security triangle" -- a term coined by Ben-Gurion -- comprising the elements of "deterrence," "early warning," and "decisive victory," with the addition of a new dimension -- defense.

"The new strategy will be the basis for the processes the IDF will pursue as part of the Gideon plan," the introduction said, referring to the military's multi-year work plan.

The plan has yet to be approved by the government, and some aspects of it contradict the Locker report, suggesting extensive cuts in defense spending. 

A military source told Israel Hayom that while the document is titled "IDF Strategy," its outline represents the "Eizenkot doctrine."

The 33-page long document reviewed the changes the IDF has undergone and plans to implement in the future, to meet the challenges posed by Middle East dynamics. 

Some of the changes include improving the effectiveness of ground maneuvers, enhancing the IDF's cyber capabilities, and preserving clear intelligence advantage and air and maritime operational superiority.

Eizenkot explains that the new strategy is based on the understanding that the conventional and unconventional first-circle threats Israel faces, meaning threats looming on its borders, are decreasing, while the threats posed by terrorist organizations, projectile fire and cyberattacks are increasing.

The first principle of the national security strategy outlined in the brief is "relying on a defensive security strategy," that strives "to ensure Israel's existence, generate effective deterrence, defer conflict and, if necessary, neutralize threats." 

The principles of military offensive are also outlined, stating the IDF's basic operational premise is that defeating the enemy solely via defensive tactics is impossible. 

The third principle notes the importance of strategic cooperation, including bolstering defense ties with the U.S. and fostering strategic ties with other key countries.

'Enemy eyes Islamic rule' 

A key characteristic of regional dynamics "is the fact that the enemy strives to impose Islamic rule across the Middle East, including in Israel. [The enemy] seeks to exhaust Israeli society, as it assumes it will prove to have little resilience," the document said. 

Outlining the enemy's operational principles, the chief of staff's brief noted the threat posed by sub-state entities, especially Iranian-sponsored terrorist organization, has increased, as these groups now strive for territorial expansion and sovereignty.

To properly meet these challenges, especially during war, the military will have to end the next campaign with a decisive victory that would allow it to dictate cease-fire terms, it would have to significantly reduce the damage inflicted on the homefront, it would have to establish an improved security situation on the ground following the conflict -- one that would undermine the enemy's ability to resume its force-building efforts -- and it would have to preserve the legitimacy to use force. 

The document stressed that the main approach to achieving decisive victory is cunningly using offensive maneuvers that play on the enemy's weaknesses, thus using the IDF's comparative advantages to ensure it achieves its "shock and awe" objectives.

While the military proved reluctant to use ground forces during its last few campaigns, the document officially states that one of the principles guiding the new strategy is engaging all relevant forces in "immediate maneuvers." Moreover, the military's cyber capabilities will be used to support both its defensive and offensive maneuvers, across all branches and on all levels. 

Another important tier of the new strategy, put on paper officially for the first time, is the need to "reduce civilian, border-adjacent vulnerabilities," in a manner that would see the IDF evacuate communities that would be placed under imminent danger by the fighting. 

It is believed the latter was one of the conclusions drawn from 2014's Operation Protective Edge, during which there was no organized evacuation of the communities adjacent to the Israel-Gaza Strip border.

Setting clear priorities 

Eizenkot's document included a lengthy review of the military's need and intent to diversify operational capabilities in the "campaign between the wars," a concept describing the IDF and the intelligence community's efforts to monitor and undermine the force-building capabilities of Israel's enemies. 

CBW represents a series of clandestine military operations, both defensive and offensive, routinely carried out by the military. 

The document further details some of the military's strategy when dealing with non-bordering nations, presumably including Iran. Dealing with such nations "is largely based on CBW ... to the point of offensive efforts meant to undermine the enemy's strength, limit its scope of operations and thwart its intentions and abilities." 

The section dealing with the concept of command and control and organizational methodologies during wartime states: "The chief of staff is the commander of the military during wartime, and he oversees all IDF operations through the Military Command. ... The Military Command comprises the chief of staff and the General Staff; it is the only military echelon to maintain regular, ongoing contact with the government, and it is the only one that can translate [government] guidelines into military operations."

Addressing the IDF's own force-building efforts, the document said the military must accelerate the development, procurement, and implementation of new technologies. 

Pursuing the force-building efforts outlined in the Gideon plan will "enable accurate, multidimensional firepower capabilities, in the shortest amount of time, across an extensive target bank," the document said, adding that bolstering the IDF's strike formations will be a priority for GOC Army Headquarters' force-building efforts.

The brief also affords a glimpse into the scope of its target bank, citing "tens of thousands of targets" in the northern sector and "thousands" of targets in the Gaza Strip sector. 

Military priorities will continue to favor developing the IDF's offensive capabilities, as it must maintain them on several fronts and dimensions -- on the ground, in the air and at sea -- simultaneously. 

The document further notes the new strategy strives to improve operational capabilities deep behind enemy lines, with the aim of allowing troops to raid enemy targets even without access to direct supply lines. 

The last chapter of Eizenkot's document focuses on human capital: "The IDF has always drawn its strength from the quality of its personnel and the deep [public] understanding that the military guarantees Israel's national existence. The IDF will spare no effort to defend and protect Israel under any circumstances, while exhausting the core characteristics of its commanders and soldiers: a fighting spirit, initiative and quality operation, and the uncompromising desire to achieve our objectives."

Lilach Shoval

Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_article.php?id=27591

Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.

ISIS chemical attacks may reveal pattern: Pentagon - Rick Moran

by Rick Moran

It appears that the WMD genie is completely out of the bottle in the Syrian civil war. The Pentagon is almost certain that the Islamic State employed mustard gas in a battle against Kurds in both Syria and Iraq. And they believe at least one other similar attack indicates that a pattern is developing that may mean a major escalation in the war.

Fox News:

The reports are fueling concerns that ISIS has acquired an arsenal of banned chemicals that could escalate fighting in the region.
“It could be a pattern,” a senior U.S. official with knowledge of the intelligence told The Wall Street Journal.
U.S. agencies have believed that the Islamic State aspired to obtain chemical weapons, such as mustard gas, but officials said it was premature to immediately connect the three attacks because the agents involved in the Iraq incidents were still in the process of being analyzed.
Officials told the journal the agencies confirmed through tests that mustard gas was used in northern Syria in July, making it the first known attack by ISIS using banned weapons.
Pentagon officials believe the terror group used chemical weapons against Kurdish Peshmerga fighters in northern Iraq Wednesday, Fox News learned. One official who had seen the latest intelligence reports from the region told Fox News Thursday that the victims had “blisters” that matched the symptoms of other victims of mustard gas.

 

U.S. intelligence agencies are still trying to determine the origin of the chemicals used in the attacks. A U.S. official tells Fox News the mustard agent was "homemade" and not from Syria.
Senior officials told The Wall Street Journal on Thursday that ISIS may have obtained the mustard gas in Syria, whose Damascus government admitted to having large stockpiles of the chemical when it agreed to give up its chemical weapons arsenal in 2013. However, some of the intelligence community doesn't think ISIS has a large chemical weapons cache.
According to the Journal, U.S. intelligence officials believed ISIS had seized a small amount of mustard gas prior to Wednesday's reported attack, though that assessment had not been made public. Now, the paper reports, officials fear that ISIS could discover more hidden caches of chemical weapons elsewhere in Syria as troops loyal to Bashar Assad lose ground in the country's bloody civil war.
Kurdish leaders said on Friday that ISIS had fired 45 mortars carrying chemical warheads, according to the website of a Peshmerga spokesman, Secretary-General Jabar Yawar.

Chlorine is the poor man's WMD because it's easy to use as a weapon . But mustard gas, while not hard to make, requires at least a minimum of laboratory facilities to mix and weaponize the substance. This would argue against ISIS making their own.

If they fired mortars of mustard gas, that means they either have a sophisticated armaments industry or they found a cache of President Assad's chemical weapons that he failed to turn over to the UN. Don't tell President Obama, though. He may decide to create another "red line."

With both ISIS and the peshmerga operating in areas populated by civilians, the death toll in some of these attacks promises to be horrific. One more reason to keep America out of this quagmire.

Rick Moran

Source: http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2015/08/isis_chemical_attacks_may_reveal_pattern_pentagon.html

Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.

Female US hostage was repeatedly raped by ISIS leader while in captivity - Rick Moran

by Rick Moran


Kayla Mueller, the US hostage who died at the hands of Islamic State earlier this year, became a sex slave to ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi according to US officials.

Reuters:

The officials confirmed a report by ABC News, which said Mueller's family had been told by U.S. government officials that their daughter, who was 26 at the time of her death, had been sexually assaulted by al-Baghdadi.
The officials spoke to Reuters on the condition of anonymity. The White House declined to comment.
"We were told Kayla was tortured, that she was the property of al-Baghdadi. We were told that in June by the government," Kayla's parents, Carl and Marsha Mueller, were quoted as telling ABC News.
Islamic State said in February that Mueller, of Prescott, Arizona, was killed when Jordanian fighter jets bombed a building where she was being held outside Raqqa, a stronghold in Syria of the Islamist militant group. Jordanian and U.S. officials have expressed doubt about Islamic State's account of her death following 18 months as a hostage.
Mueller was taken hostage in August 2013 while leaving a hospital in Aleppo in northern Syria.
Al-Baghdadi personally brought Mueller to be imprisoned inside the home in Syria of Abu Sayyaf, a Tunisian Islamic State figure who was killed in a U.S. raid in May, counter-terrorism officials told ABC News over the past several months.
The information about al-Baghdadi's role in the captivity and sexual abuse of Mueller was drawn from many sources including U.S. interviews with at least two teenage Yezidi girls held as sex slaves in Sayyaf's compound and the interrogation of Sayyaf's wife, Umm Sayyaf, who was captured by U.S. forces in the raid in which her husband was killed, ABC News quoted the officials as saying.

This will probably shock a lot of Americans, but it shouldn't. In its attempt to revive the caliphate, Islamic State is using the Koran to justify practices that haven't been seen for more than 1000 years. The grisly executions, the rapes, the establishment of a slave market - these are all being justified by ISIS as teachings from the Koran.

Beyond that, Islamic State is telling its fighters that raping non-Muslim women makes them holy. The New York Times published a searing account of the travails of Yazidi women captured by ISIS in the fight for Mt. Sinjar:

The systematic rape of women and girls from the Yazidi religious minority has become deeply enmeshed in the organization and the radical theology of the Islamic State in the year since the group announced it was reviving slavery as an institution. Interviews with 21 women and girls who recently escaped the Islamic State, as well as an examination of the group’s official communications, illuminate how the practice has been enshrined in the group’s core tenets.
The trade in Yazidi women and girls has created a persistent infrastructure, with a network of warehouses where the victims are held, viewing rooms where they are inspected and marketed, and a dedicated fleet of buses used to transport them. A total of 5,270 Yazidis were abducted last year, and at least 3,144 are still being held, according to community leaders. To handle them, the Islamic State has developed a detailed bureaucracy of sex slavery, including sales contracts notarized by the ISIS-run Islamic courts. And the practice has become an established recruiting tool to lure men from deeply conservative Muslim societies, where casual sex is taboo and dating is forbidden.
A growing body of internal policy memos and theological discussions has established guidelines for slavery, including a lengthy how-to manual issued by the Islamic State Research and Fatwa Department just last month. Repeatedly, the ISIS leadership has emphasized a narrow and selective reading of the Quran and other religious rulings to not only justify violence, but also to elevate and celebrate each sexual assault as spiritually beneficial, even virtuous.
“Every time that he came to rape me, he would pray,” said F, a 15-year-old girl who was captured on the shoulder of Mount Sinjar one year ago and was sold to an Iraqi fighter in his 20s.

As ISIS ideology and theology becomes more popular, the problem of getting rid of them becomes more difficult. As with the confrontation between Nazism and communism and the west, in order to defeat an idea, you have to offer a better idea. And it's becoming frighteningly clear that those in the west who stood tallest when confronting those twin evils - artists, intellectuals, and other public thinkers - don't have the stomach today to confront anything. 


Rick Moran

Source: http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2015/08/female_us_hostage_was_repeatedly_raped_by_isis_leader_while_in_captivity.html

Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.

The Iran Nuclear Deal's Fallout on the United Nations - Salomon Benzimra

by Salomon Benzimra

On July 20, the UN Security Council rushed to pass UNSC Resolution 2231 “under silence,” thereby unanimously endorsing the nuclear treaty, as called for in Article 18 of the agreement. By doing so, the Security Council committed itself to rescind six (6) binding resolutions --- passed from 2006 to 2010 under Chapter VII of the UN Charter

The U.S. Congress is presently reviewing the Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action, a deal concluded on July 14, 2015, by Iran and the main world powers. It is likely Congress will reject the deal next month and it may or may not be able to later override the inevitable presidential veto.

The central issue is whether Iran will or will not be allowed to become a nuclear power.  But other matters of considerable importance seem to have been kept away from the limelight: the impact of the JCPOA on the role and credibility of the United Nations.

1. Security Council Resolutions:  On July 20, the UN Security Council rushed to pass UNSC Resolution 2231 “under silence,” thereby unanimously endorsing the nuclear treaty, as called for in Article 18 of the agreement. By doing so, the Security Council committed itself to rescind six (6) binding resolutions --- passed from 2006 to 2010 under Chapter VII of the UN Charter -- originally intended to prevent Iran from enriching uranium and developing ballistic missiles, and to apply and strengthen sanctions against the Iranian state and designated individuals. Iran had systematically scoffed at these resolutions. The JCPOA vindicated Iran’s policy.

However, UNSC Resolution 2231 is silent on other equally binding Chapter VII resolutions of the Security Council, especially UNSC Resolution 1566, passed on October 8, 2004, and which stresses the global obligations of all nations against states or organizations involved in terrorism: “[The Security Council] recalls that criminal acts... with the purpose to provoke a state of terror in the general public ... as defined in the international conventions and protocols relating to terrorism, are under no circumstances justifiable... and calls upon all States to prevent such acts and, if not prevented, to ensure that such acts are punished by penalties consistent with their grave nature” (Article 3, emphasis added).

Considering that Iran has been the world’s number one state sponsor and promoter of terrorist activities for a number of years – supporting Bashar al-Assad’s brutal civil war in Syria; fomenting the Houthi rebellion in Yemen; financially and militarily assisting Hizb’allah and Hamas, etc. -- it is inconceivable that world powers, led by the United States, could turn a blind eye to their international obligations and, by their silence, acquiesce to the ongoing atrocities instigated by Iran.

Worse still, the imminent lifting of sanctions and the release of billions of dollars to Iran under the provisions of the treaty, fly in the face of the equally binding UNSC Resolution 1373 of September 28, 2001, which calls for “all States ... to prevent and suppress the financing of terrorist acts.” (Art. 1).  No one but the most naive optimist doubts that part of this huge cash flow will be diverted by Iran to promote its terrorist activities.  Again, the JCPOA is instrumental in scuttling essential anti-terror resolutions.

2. The UN Charter: For the past fifteen years, top Iranian leaders have repeatedly called for the destruction of Israel, the only nation...

• characterized by the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei as “a cancerous tumor which must be uprooted from the region” (2001) and as “a hideous entity in the Middle East which will be undoubtedly annihilated” (2010);
• threatened by former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani with “one nuclear bomb that will destroy everything” (2001);
• blasted by former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in his “World without Zionism” conference of 2005 where he vowed that Israel “will be wiped off the map” (or “will vanish from the page of time” depending on translation) and urged “all Zionists to move to Europe,” claiming that “Israel has no place in the region” (2013);
• convicted by Yahia Rahim Safavi, military commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, to “a death sentence, with God’s help” (2008), a verdict deemed “non-negotiable” by Mohammad Reza Naqdi, the Basij militia commander, in March 2015.  The latter statement proves that the election of so-called “moderate” president Hassan Rouhani in 2013 did not moderate in any way Iran’s aggressive attitude toward Israel.

And yet, not only do these Iranian leaders indulge in the worst form of incitement to genocide (a behavior that sentenced the Hutu inciters in Rwanda to long jail terms in 2003), but the Islamic Republic of Iran remains a member of the United Nations in flagrant violation of the UN Charter, which states: “All Members shall refrain...from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state...” (Art. 2[4]). Incidentally, a U.S. Congress Resolution (H.CON.RES.21) was introduced to that effect in June 2007 by Rep. Steven R. Rothman [NJ-9], and referred to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Moreover, the UN Charter envisages the possibility of “expelling” from the UN “a Member of the United Nations which has persistently violated the Principles contained in the present Charter...” (Art. 6). But nothing of the sort was even remotely hinted at by the five permanent members of the Security Council while they were hatching the JCPOA agreement which granted Iran total impunity.

It is ironic that the State of Israel, which has the strongest backup in history and international law for its reconstitution in its ancestral land (the former Palestine Mandate), is the only state subjected to such a vociferous opposition to its existence. And it is worrisome that the major world powers, led by the U.S. administration, have concocted the lame JCPOA agreement which, beyond all its flaws, casts a serious doubt -- by commission and omission -- on whatever credibility the United Nations still has as an international institution designed to preserve world peace and fair relations between its member states.

Salomon Benzimra

Source: http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2015/08/the_iran_nuclear_deals_fallout_on_the_united_nations.html

Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.

Europeans Rush to Profit from Iran Deal - Soeren Kern

by Soeren Kern

• Middle East expert Ilan Berman points out that for Iran, trading with Europe is actually the perfect self-defense, a virtual guarantee that it will not face military attack if it cheats on its obligations under the nuclear deal.
• Sanctions will also be lifted on Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's $95 billion business empire, as well as on Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which operates a vast network of companies and industries. No wonder European media outlets are referring to Iran as the "new El Dorado," the "chance of a century," and the "last untapped market."
• "Conducting business with the Iranian regime means to finance the nuclear program, the annihilation threats against Israel, Holocaust denial, the export of Islamist terror and the oppression of the Iranian population." — Stop the Bomb, Austria.
• "Everyone is looking at Iran with greed." — Senior French official.

European politicians and business leaders, resembling the running of the bulls in Spain, are falling over themselves in a rush to secure the "first-mover" advantage in Iran's $400 billion economy.

Under the nuclear deal reached in Vienna on July 14, international sanctions will be removed on Iran's banking, energy and trade sectors if Tehran agrees to certain curbs on its nuclear program.

The lifting of sanctions on Iran, a market of 80 million consumers (the second-largest market in the Middle East after Turkey in terms of GDP) creates the potential for staggering business opportunities.

Iranian officials say that investments of $185 billion are required in the oil and gas sector alone during the next five years. The mining sector requires $29 billion between now and 2025. Iran hopes to triple the number of cars manufactured in the country to three million a year by 2025.

Sanctions will also be lifted on Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's $95 billion business empire, as well as on Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which operates a vast network of companies and industries.

No wonder that European media outlets are referring to Iran as the "new El Dorado," the "chance of a century," and the "last untapped market."

Although the United States Congress will not vote on the accord until September, Europeans appear to be operating on the premise that Iran is now open for business.

Within days of the agreement's signing, the European Union approved the deal, and senior officials from Germany, France, Italy and the European Union rushed to Tehran to pursue business deals; leaders from Austria, Spain and Sweden are planning to lead trade missions to Iran in September and October.

On August 12, Switzerland — a neutral country that is not a member of the European Union — announced it would unilaterally lift sanctions on Iran effective immediately, presumably providing Tehran with access to technology and the Swiss banking system.

Analysts say the flurry of European activity implies that international sanctions on Iran are crumbling, and if Tehran violates its commitments under the nuclear deal, efforts to re-impose them are unlikely to succeed.

Saeed Ghasseminejad, an Iran analyst with the Washington-based Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, said:

"President Obama's promise about the snapback sanction has no truth in it. When international companies go to Iran and commit themselves and their shareholders to long-term multi-billion dollar investments, there will be no snapback sanction mechanism.
"It took the U.S. almost a decade to convince Europeans to leave Iran's market, as the European companies were deeply invested in the country. Those who promise an immediate return of sanctions in future are either naïve or they are not telling the truth."

In an interview with the New York Times, Philip Gordon, the Obama Administration's former coordinator for the Middle East who is now with the Council on Foreign Relations, admitted that American negotiators had deliberately left vague the procedures over sanctions snap-back, which means that if Iran fails to comply with the agreement, not all sanctions will necessarily be reapplied.

According to the Times, "The accord stipulates, for instance, that renewed sanctions 'would not apply with retroactive effect' to contracts signed before a potential violation is flagged. European companies and governments could argue that contracts signed now would be excluded from any future sanctions."

Addressing a meeting at Iran's Strategic Council on Foreign Relations on August 3, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif bragged that the international sanctions regime against the country has collapsed and will never again be re-imposed. He said:

"The structure of the sanctions that the US had built based on the UN Security Council's resolutions was destroyed and like the 1990s when no other country complied with the US sanctions against Iran, no one will accept the return of the sanctions in the future."

In an essay for Politico Europe, Middle East expert Ilan Berman pointed out that for Tehran, trading with Europe is actually the perfect self-defense, a virtual guarantee that it will not face military attack if it cheats on its obligations under the nuclear deal.

"The end result is a situation in which Europe's growing political and economic stake in the Islamic Republic virtually guarantees that Iran won't return to its old status as an international pariah, whether or not it ends up abiding by the terms of the JCPOA," Berman wrote. "The lesson, it seems, is that trading with Europe means never having to say you're sorry."

Following is a brief country-by-country round-up of key European trade delegations seeking to open business opportunities with Iran.

Germany. German Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel was the first senior European official to visit Iran after the signing of the Vienna agreement. On July 19, Gabriel, who also serves as Economy Minister, led a delegation of high-ranking German business leaders to Iran to build bilateral trade relations. He said there was "great interest on the part of German industry in normalizing and strengthening economic relations with Iran."

The German Federation of Industries (Bundesverband der Deutschen Industrie, BDI) believes exports to Iran could rise to more than 10 billion euros ($10.9 billion) within three to four years, up from 2.4 billion euros in 2014.

Gabriel insisted that Iran must improve relations with Israel if it wants closer economic ties with Germany. "For Germany this much is clear: Anyone who wants sustainable relations with us cannot question Israel's right to exist," Gabriel said.

But Iranian officials flatly rejected Gabriel's plea. "We have totally different views from Germany on certain regional issues in the Middle East, and we have explicitly expressed our viewpoints in different negotiations," a foreign ministry spokesperson said.

France. Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius was the second senior European official to visit Iran after the nuclear deal was signed. Arriving in Tehran on July 29, Fabius proclaimed: "We are two great independent countries, two great civilizations. It is true that in recent years, for reasons that everyone knows, links have loosened, but now thanks to the nuclear deal, things are going to change."

Imports from Iran to France fell to just 62 million euros in 2013 from 1.77 billion in 2011. French exports to Iran in 2013 fell to 494 million euros from 1.66 billion euros in 2011, according to French foreign ministry estimates.

Fabius, who denied accusations that France's primary motivation in signing the Iran deal was to create business opportunities for French companies, also conveyed an invitation from French President François Hollande to Iranian President Hassan Rouhani to visit France in November.

Fabius' visit was marred by Iranian hardliners, who blame him for the spread of AIDS in the country. Some 300 Iranians were infected with tainted blood supplies that were exported to Iran in the mid-1980s, when Fabius was the Socialist prime minister, and when France's national blood transfusion center knowingly distributed HIV-contaminated blood products. Fabius was charged with manslaughter in 1999 but was later acquitted. Iranian protesters greeted Fabius with flyers depicting him with blood on his hands and the pledge: "We will not forgive or forget."

Representatives from France's largest employer federation, MEDEF, are due to visit Iran on September 27-29 to explore investment opportunities and re-establish commercial ties.

In February 2014, more than 100 French business leaders — with representatives from companies including Airbus, Alstom, Citroën, GDF Suez, Lafarge, Peugeot, Renault and Total — visited Iran "in an exploratory capacity." It was the largest of trade delegation of its kind from Europe since Iran signed an interim agreement in November 2013 promising to limit its nuclear program.

At the time, French Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici said the visit was intended to "convey the message that, if the situation improves, there will be significant commercial opportunities for France in Iran."

Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius says: "Trade is very important. It fosters growth. It's important for the Iranians, it's important for us," adding that regarding the current nuclear deal with Iran, "we did not take it for commercial reasons, but for strategic reasons..." Above, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif hugs Fabius at the close of nuclear talks in Geneva, Nov. 23, 2014. (Image source: ISNA)

Italy. Italian Foreign Minister Paolo Gentiloni and Economic Development Minister Federica Guidi led a high-level trade mission to Iran on August 4-6, aimed at opening export opportunities for Italian companies. According to forecasts by SACE, the Italian export credit company, Italian exports to Iran are expected to grow to €3.8 billion ($4.1 billion) in 2018, up from €1.2 billion currently.

Companies in the oil and gas industry and the machine tool industry, the two sectors most adversely affected by sanctions, are hoping to recapture market share lost due to the trade embargo. Companies active in the machine tools sector (which accounts for nearly 60% of current Italian exports to Iran) have seen their exports drop to €700 million from €1.3 billion during the past five years, according to SACE.

Gentiloni and Guidi met with Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh on August 6. After the meeting, Zanganeh said that Iran had invited the Italian oil and gas giant Eni, as well as other Italian companies, to participate in projects in the Iranian oil industry.

On August 4, SACE, together with the Italian Ministry of Economic Development and Mediobanca, the leading investment bank in Italy, announced the finalization of a Memorandum of Understanding with the Iranian Ministry of Economy and Finance and the Central Bank of Iran, aimed at facilitating the development of future economic and trade relations between the two countries.

Under the agreement, "the parties will collaborate to evaluate short and medium-long term projects of mutual interest implying Italian export and investments and to identify local financial institutions that could benefit from credit lines provided by Mediobanca, and guaranteed by SACE and the Ministry of Economy and Finance of Iran, to support the financing and payment of such transactions."

Also on August 4, Finmeccanica, Italy's main industrial group, announced that it had signed a €500 million ($543 million) contract with Iran's Ghadir Investment Company to build a power plant in the country. Ghadir is 80% owned by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards' Corps (IGRC). The IRGC, through its elite Quds Force, is responsible for the deaths of at least 1,000 American troops in Iraq.

Austria. Austrian President Heinz Fischer is set to become the first European head of state to visit Iran since 2004 when he travels to Tehran on September 7-9. Fischer will be accompanied by Vice Chancellor and Economy Minister Reinhold Mitterlehner, Foreign Minister Sebastian Kurz, as well as a delegation of high-ranking Austrian business leaders. Mitterlehner said he hopes that Austrian exports to Iran will reach one billion euros per year by 2020, up from 232 million euros today.

On July 23-24, the Austrian Economic Chamber (Wirtschaftskammer Österreich, WKÖ) organized a major EU-Iran trade conference that was attended by nearly 400 Austrian and Iranian business leaders, including Iranian Industry Minister Mohammad Reza Nematzadeh.

According to Nematzadeh: "We are no longer interested in unidirectional importation of goods and machinery from Europe. We are looking for two-way trade, as well as cooperation in development, design, engineering and joint investment for production and export."

Not all Austrians are happy about the government's rush to embrace Iran. The Austrian branch of the activist group "Stop the Bomb" organized a protest outside the WKÖ's headquarters on July 23. In a statement, the group said:

"While the implementation of the nuclear deal with the Iranian has not even started and the sanctions on Iran are still in place, Iran trade lobbyists are set to host the 'EU-Iran-Conference' at the Austrian Economic Chamber WKO in Vienna. Among the participants are WKO-President Christoph Leitl and the Iranian Industry & Trade Minister Mohammad Reza Nematzadeh. 70 years after the Shoah, Austrian and German companies are in the first row to boost business ties with the anti-Semitic Iranian regime.
"This conference shows that billions of Euros are going to flow to the Iranian mullahs as a result of the Vienna agreement. This will enable the regime to sponsor its terror proxies like Hamas and Hezbollah and to enforce its aggressive expansion in the region in unprecedented ways. The terror against the Iranian population will not decrease, but increase. Already now more people have been executed under supposedly 'moderate' President Rouhani than under his predecessor Ahmadinejad.
"Conducting business with the Iranian regime means to finance the nuclear program, the annihilation threats against Israel, Holocaust denial, the export of Islamist terror and the oppression of the Iranian population."

Spain. Foreign Minister José Manuel García-Margallo, Industry, Energy and Tourism Minister José Manuel Soria and Development Minister Ana Pastor will lead a high-level trade delegation to Iran in early September. The objective is to open doors for Spanish companies in the energy, telecommunications and infrastructure sectors.

After the sanctions are lifted, Spain hopes to double its exports to Iran to 600 million euros, up from 300 million euros today, according to the Chamber of Commerce. The key sectors of interest for Spanish companies are petroleum, petro-chemical, mining, automobile, infrastructure and rail transport.

Despite the embargo, more than 350 mostly small- and medium-sized Spanish companies are currently active in Iran. On July 19, the newspaper El Mundo reported that more than a dozen Spanish companies sold so-called dual-use materials that could have been used to help Iran build weapons of mass destruction.

Since 2011, Spanish authorities have carried out nearly a dozen police operations aimed at disrupting illegal weapons sales to Iran. One such operation blew the lid off a scheme to sell nine helicopters to Iran. Another operation discovered that a company ostensibly dedicated to importing Persian rugs was trying to sell missile casings to the Iranian military.

A report published by Gatestone Institute in April 2014 found that in addition to Spain, companies or individuals in more than a dozen European countries — including Belgium, Britain, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Slovenia, Sweden and Switzerland — have been involved in illegal dual-use exports to Iran.

A senior French official interviewed by the Reuters news agency summed it up this way: "Everyone is looking at Iran with greed."
 

 

Soeren Kern is a Senior Fellow at the New York-based Gatestone Institute. He is also Senior Fellow for European Politics at the Madrid-based Grupo de Estudios Estratégicos / Strategic Studies Group. Follow him on Facebook and on Twitter.

Source:  http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/6339/iran-deal-europeans-profit

Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.