by Jonathan S. Tobin
The president-elect’s threat—“There will be all Hell to pay in the Middle East”—if Hamas didn’t release its captives before his inauguration sent a message to Iran.
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| GOP presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump takes
photos with the family of Edan Alexander at the Ohel in Queens, N.Y.,
the resting place of Rabbi Menachem Mendel Schneerson (the Lubavitcher
Rebbe), one year after the Hamas-led terrorist attacks and kidnappings
in southern Israel, Oct. 7, 2024. Photo by Michael M. Santiago/Getty
Images. |
We don’t know yet what impact
President-elect Donald Trump’s bombshell statement about the fate of the
Israeli hostages still held by Hamas will be. But in one post on
his Truth Social site, he neatly summarized what has been lacking in
terms of American leadership when it comes to the fight against
Iranian-funded Islamist terrorism for the past four years.
Trump’s post—with its characteristic bombastic tone
and use of capital letters for emphasis—was very different from the
public statements of the Biden administration foreign-policy team in
recent months on the same topic or that of any other world leader. The
United States has condemned Hamas, but in the last year has been
primarily focused on pressuring Israel to give up its campaign to
eliminate the terrorists and agree to a ceasefire with only a partial
release of the hostages. That would effectively hand the perpetrators an
undeserved victory for the massacre of 1,200 men, women and children in
Israel on Oct. 7, 2023.
Instead, Trump put the onus for achieving
the release of the hostages—something all decent people should
support—on the Palestinians. They were responsible for that rampage of
mass murder, torture, rape and kidnapping. But by specifying that the
“All HELL TO PAY” would be felt throughout the Middle East, he was also
sending a powerful message to Hamas’s foreign backers. Iran, as well as
nominal U.S. allies like Qatar and Turkey, who have provided the
terrorists with aid and diplomatic cover are also now on notice to
secure the hostages’ freedom lest they, too, face Trump’s wrath once he
returns to the White House on Jan. 20.
It’s true that the Biden administration
has been working on trying to broker a deal that would lead to the
release of at least some of the 101 hostages (approximately 60 are
believed to be alive) that are still unaccounted for. But there has been
no such unambiguous message from Washington about what it expects from
the Hamas terrorist organization or its allies in the Muslim and Arab
worlds. Instead, and in keeping with its consistent efforts to undermine
and topple the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
since Israelis elected it in November 2022, Biden has wanted Netanyahu
to make concessions that wouldn’t return all the hostages at once and
that would hand over Gaza to the weak and corrupt Palestinian Authority,
which has, despite its rivalry with Hamas, never condemned the
atrocities that took place on Oct. 7. That is a formula to ensure that
Hamas would soon return to power there, leaving Israel in as much danger
as it was when the Palestinians started this war.
Wanting Israel to ‘finish’ and win
Trump has made no secret of his desire for
a clean slate in the Middle East when he takes office, with Israel
having completed its wars against both Hamas in the south and Hezbollah
to the north. While that puts Netanyahu on notice that the next
administration is hoping not to be distracted from its domestic
priorities by conflict in the Middle East, Trump was equally clear that
he had no compunctions about the severity of Israeli military actions in
Gaza or Lebanon. He just wants the Israelis to “finish” and achieve
“victory” over Hamas—an idea that the Biden team has consistently
opposed. Once that victory is achieved, Trump is obviously hoping to
pick up where he left off when he left office four years ago by building
on the 2020 Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel
and four Arab and Muslim-majority nations.
Many of Trump’s critics were predictably
appalled by his hostage post because of its tone and what they consider
to be his bias in favor of Israel and against the Palestinians. Despite
starting the war with barbaric atrocities and sticking to their goal of
wiping Israel off the map and committing genocide against the Jews,
Hamas and its supporters—a category that includes what may well be a
majority of Palestinians as well as their cheerleaders in the
international media and on American college campuses—expect themselves
to be depicted as the sole victims in the conflict.
Biden’s willingness to kowtow to that mindset has undermined his administration’s efforts to end the war.
He did so in part out of an instinctual
desire to curry favor with the international community, which is
prejudiced against the Jewish state. It also reflected a feckless desire
to curry favor with Muslim and Arab-American voters prior to the
November presidential election. Much to the dismay of Democrats, that
gambit failed. Many of them chose not to vote for Vice President Kamala
Harris against Trump largely out of spite because they and others in his
party’s left-wing intersectional base deemed Biden, who zigzagged
between support for the Jewish state’s right of self-defense and harsh
criticism of its exercise of that right, insufficiently anti-Israel.
No matter his motivation, the mixed
signals sent by Biden, and later by Harris as well, about the war only
served to encourage Hamas to refuse to negotiate seriously. Rather than
acknowledge defeat and end the suffering of the Palestinian population
of Gaza that they used as pawns and human shields, the terrorists stuck
to their demands that a ceasefire would entail a return to the pre-Oct. 7
status quo, where they would be in charge in Gaza. And they did this
while claiming that it was Israel’s fault for refusing to surrender to
them.
Sadly, that false claim has been echoed by
some of Netanyahu’s domestic political opponents. The anti-Bibi
resistance largely hijacked the cause of the hostage families. These
partisans have sought to place all the blame for their remaining in
captivity on the prime minister who had to balance their plight against
his obligation not to endanger other Israelis by paying a price for
their freedom that would lead to more Oct. 7-like assaults.
While Israelis remain deeply divided about
Netanyahu, there’s no sign that this debate extends to his policy of
carrying the war to Hamas and Hezbollah. There is a broad consensus that
Hamas cannot be allowed to threaten Israel again. And there will be no
way to do that if the Israel Defense Forces don’t maintain a presence
inside the Gaza Strip even after the mopping up of the remaining
Palestinian terrorists is eventually finished.
Biden stiffened Hamas’s resolve
Whether they intended to or not, Biden’s
and Harris’s often severe criticism of Israel’s conduct of the war as
being too harsh or resulting in too many Palestinian casualties only
stiffened the resolve of the remnants of Hamas and other terrorist
movements in Gaza. Combined with their continuing desire to appease
rather than to confront Iran and their ineffectual response to the
terrorist attacks being conducted by their Hezbollah and Houthi proxy
forces, the administration’s pressure on Israel made the goal of a
hostage deal at any price even less likely.
Iran is key to solving this puzzle, as is
the behavior of Turkey and Qatar, the Gulf state that is a major
supporter of Hamas and Tehran while also playing the hand of serving as
an American ally. Hamas’s remaining cadres are confident that as long as
they retain foreign support, they need not consider giving up a
hopeless struggle not just to hold onto parts of Gaza but to eventually
destroy Israel.
Yet everything Biden has done in the
Middle East has been tainted by his administration’s ongoing desire to
avoid antagonizing Iran. That was reflected in their attitudes towards
Hezbollah’s control of Lebanon and their warnings to Israel to avoid
strikes on Iran’s nuclear program or its ability to ship oil even after
Tehran directly attacked Israel twice in 2024. This is a policy that
everyone on Biden’s team has treated as a priority dating back to their
time working for President Barack Obama and his efforts to achieve a
rapprochement with Tehran while creating more “daylight” between
Washington and Jerusalem.
Sending a warning
Trump’s threats may not be enough to
convince Hamas to give up their fight to hang on in Gaza. But they have
given the Iranians, as well as Qatar and Turkey, a lot to think about.
Whether or not they succeed in the short term, the president-elect has
served notice to the region that those who have enabled the continuation
of the war on Israel that began last Oct. 7 may be forced to pay a very
high price for continuing to do so.
What does that mean?
Certainly, it will entail a return to the
“maximum pressure” campaign on Iran that Trump employed to bring its
economy to its knees before he left office in January 2021. Their plight
was only relieved by Biden’s foolish lifting of sanctions on Tehran and
transferring billions of dollars in formerly frozen funds to the
Islamist regions. But the ayatollahs and their Islamic Revolutionary
Guard Corps shock troops must also worry about the threat of a “green
light” from Trump to Israel to take out their nuclear program and
capacity to ship oil to foreign customers who are keeping the regime
afloat.
It is also a warning to Qatar and Turkey that they, too, might suffer from Trump’s disfavor.
Rather than being a weakness, Trump’s
blunt talk on issues of foreign policy, coupled with his
unpredictability and unwillingness to brook insults from rogue states,
are some of his greatest strengths when operating on the international
scene. It is also crucial to understanding why events such as Russia’s
invasion of Ukraine, as well as the Oct. 7 attacks enabled by Iran,
didn’t happen on Trump’s watch.
Moreover, it was also Trump’s moral
clarity on the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians that led to
his success in expanding the circle of peace via the Abraham Accords.
Only by making it crystal clear that Israel had America’s full backing
could Muslim and Arab nations be persuaded to drop their resistance to
normalizing relations with the Jewish state. Rather than set the region
on fire, Trump’s move of the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to
Jerusalem—plus the recognition of Israeli sovereignty on the Golan, the
legality of Jewish communities in Judea and Samaria, and by holding the
Palestinian Authority accountable for their support for
terrorism—brought the region closer to peace.
More threats, less appeasement
Some people are put off by Trump’s bluster
and disinterest in diplomatic niceties. But it is precisely a return to
his unorthodox style that enabled him to ignore the advice of the
foreign-policy establishment and its self-styled “experts” who have been
wrong about the Middle East for decades.
What the world needs is more Trumpian
threats and less of Biden’s blind faith in multilateralism, appeasement
of Iran and diplomacy for its own sake. Whether or not his demand for
the prompt release of hostages held captive for a full 14 months,
including a baby, is heeded, his return to the White House is good news
for supporters of Israel. It’s also a reason for those who have been
enabling the terrorists to reconsider their vile and ultimately foolish
stand.
Jonathan S. Tobin is editor-in-chief of JNS (Jewish News Syndicate). Follow him @jonathans_tobin.
Source: https://www.jns.org/trump-voices-the-moral-clarity-on-hostages-the-world-needed/
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