by Raw Egg Nationalist
There’s a lot going on here—geopolitics is a complicated business—and already explanations have hardened into self-confirming dogmas.
“We don’t know who engineered this crisis,” Javier Bardem said on Instagram, “but we know who benefits from a weakened, destabilized Spain: Israel and the Western far right eager to turn migration into a weapon against Muslims.”
Fresh from pontificating about the size of Donald Trump’s manhood at Cannes, the Hollywood actor took aim at the Orange Man again last Friday, accusing him and his puppet master Netanyahu of pushing 50,000 Moroccans to enter the Spanish city of Ceuta, in scenes reminiscent of a terrifying big-budget movie. World War Z or maybe, given the amphibious nature of the incursion, Saving Private Ryan; perhaps a mixture of both. “Apocalyptic” was not, for once, an exaggeration.
Spain has been Europe’s “loudest voice” against the US and Israel, Bardem said, and now she was being punished for her defiance. The migrants who entered Ceuta, most of them swimming around the huge fences that separate this tiny outpost of Europe from the vastness of Africa, were unwitting pawns in a high-stakes game whose real locus is the Middle East: Gaza, a Palestinian state, Iran, the Strait of Hormuz.
Spain has indeed been an annoying tábano (horsefly) biting the exposed flesh of the US and Israel. Its socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has strongly opposed the war with Iran, refusing to provide support in any form. He denied the US use of joint airbases at Rota and Morón and closed Spanish airspace to American planes, except in emergencies. He described Iran’s religious government as “hateful” and repressive but said it was possible to oppose it without backing an illegal war. Sánchez and his government have been no less resolute in their opposition to Israel’s war with Gaza, which began in late 2023. That following May, Spain, Ireland, and Norway officially recognized the State of Palestine. Spain has accused Israel of genocide multiple times, halted arm sales, recalled its ambassador from Tel Aviv, urged the EU to suspend its association agreement with Israel, and encouraged sporting and cultural boycotts.
Realizing perhaps that he was in dangerous territory himself—almost suggesting that mass migration can do really bad things to Western nations—Bardem then executed a stunning about-turn. Migration isn’t a weapon being used against Europeans by Africans. It’s actually being used against Africans by Europeans.
“Ceuta is in Africa, not Europe,” he said. “This isn’t an ‘invasion’ of the West. If anything, it’s the reverse, given Morocco functions increasingly as a Western-aligned client state.”
Phew.
Squaring the circle decisively, Bardem concluded, “This has nothing to do with Islam ‘invading’ Europe, and everything to do with punishing the loudest European government still willing to call a genocide a genocide.”
In response to the posts, US ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee called Bardem “another dim-witted actor.”
You could be forgiven for knowing nothing at all about Ceuta; I’ll admit I didn’t know much myself. One of the last remaining fragments of Europe-in-Africa, the city was captured for the kingdom of Portugal in 1415 from the Marinid Dynasty that ruled much of the Maghreb, now modern-day Morocco. It became joint possession of the combined Spanish and Portuguese crowns in 1581 and then exclusively Spanish from 1668. Its importance in Spanish history is belied by its size (population: 84,000), not least of all because it was the stronghold from which General Francisco Franco began the military uprising that became the Spanish Civil War, saving the country the horrors of communist rule.
A majority of Ceuta’s population is European, but close to 40% are Arab-Berber Muslims. Since its independence from France in 1956, Morocco has never recognized Spain’s sovereignty over Ceuta. Although Spain returned other colonial holdings to Morocco—Tarfaya in 1958 and Ifni in 1969—it has doggedly held on to Ceuta and Melilla to the east. A steady stream of migrants has flowed towards the two enclaves ever since, punctuated by the occasional crisis that has seen up to 10,000 migrants arrive on Spain’s doorstep all at once. The last was in the spring of 2021.
The idea that the latest crisis is a kind of punishment-beating for Spain, a drubbing handed down from Washington and Jerusalem, has gained wide currency on the internet. Rep. Thomas Massie, now cast in the mould of Trump-hating, anti-“Epstein class” rabble-rouser, pointed to a recent House bill (HR 8595) that he claimed, “greenlighted the transfer of Spanish territory to Morocco.”
“Every Republican except me voted for it,” he said, “but now THEY are acting shocked at the invasion.”
“This very recently passed House bill directs at least $40 million to Morocco with a wink and a nod, and encouragement that this land is theirs. Same bill gives $3.3 billion to Israel.”
In two brief paragraphs, the bill does indeed direct $40 million to Morocco, and notes the “historic alliance between the United States and Morocco, as formalized in 1786 by the Moroccan-American Treaty of Peace and Friendship.” It also includes a Committee note that “the Spanish-administered cities of Ceuta and Melilla are located in Moroccan territory and remain the subject of Morocco’s longstanding claim,” adding that the Committee “supports efforts by the Secretary of State to encourage diplomatic engagement between Morocco and Spain on the future status of Ceuta and Melilla.” The bill does also make provision for an extra $3.3 billion of aid to Israel. The bill has not yet been signed into law.
Massie has since walked back his claims a little, but he still seems to be suggesting the bill had something to do with the incursion. Supporters and followers of the Kentucky Pinecone have been quick to join even more dots, and he’s been happy for them to do so, so long as the shapes they draw make the Republican party, and by extension President Trump, look bad.
“TRANSLATION: CIA now actively subverting Moroccan regime/government with Congressional approval,” one anonymous poster wrote.
Massie’s response: the bullseye emoji.
Matters haven’t exactly been helped by the response of prominent Israelis and supporters of Israel on X, which has been crowing, to put it mildly. Evidence of guilt, many say; others, evidence of a perverse inability to shut the fuck up when you’re already hated enough. Danny Danon, a prominent member of the Knesset, Tweeted, “Spain, which never misses an opportunity to lecture Israel, has declared a state of emergency in Ceuta following the crisis over its immigration policy. Maybe before it continues lecturing us, it’s time it explained to the world why it still maintains colonial enclaves in Africa.” Danon was one of the principal advocates of transferring the entire population of Gaza to Europe, to bring about a permanent settlement to the “Palestinian question.” He wrote a Wall Street Journal op-ed laying out the plan, in November 2023.
The posts are too numerous to mention, but others include a picture of Spain divided in two, with one half labelled “Morocco,” the other “Spain.” The caption: “2 States for 2 Nations. Living side by side. In peace and prosperity.”
Older posts were also reheated. Candace Owens dug up a thread of posts by Benjamin Netanyahu’s son Yair from 2019 in which he seemed to suggest Israel has been actively funding attempts for the transfer of Ceuta and Melilla to Morocco. Netanyahu-Frère encouraged Arabs to turn their attention to Spain’s “colonial” possessions in North Africa if they actually wanted to liberate “occupied” lands. The real target of the posts, though, was Spaniards who support a two-state solution. “Let’s make a deal: we won’t fund NGOs in your country calling you to give away Ceuta and Melilla, and you will *stop* funding NGOs in our country that call us to give away Judea and Samaria,” he wrote. The implication, missed by most of those reading it, was that Israel wasn’t funding NGOs in Spain but could if it wanted to do what Spain is doing in Israel.
More incriminating still, we were told, was a recent piece by the pro-Israel think tank Middle East Forum, written during the early days of the Iran War, in March. The author, Michael Rubin, said Spain’s Prime Minister should “make good on his anti-colonial rhetoric and end [Spain’s] occupation in Africa.” The short piece called for Moroccans to flood Ceuta and Melilla and take them back by force.
The rhetoric is charged, to say the least. “Moroccans should gather, send bulldozers to the border, and then enter Ceuta and Melilla unarmed to raise the flag. Sánchez and the Spanish press bleat, but they have no grounds to act. Nor, for that matter, would NATO, even if Moroccan forces entered the towns to restore order and organize the dispatch of settlers across the Strait of Gibraltar and back to Spain.” Rubin suggested an invasion of Ceuta and Melilla would not trigger Article V of the NATO treaty (mutual self-defense), so Spain should not come crying to daddy when she finds herself helpless against the sheer weight of Moroccans taking back what is rightfully theirs.
Rubin, unsurprisingly, was among those gloating at last week’s invasion. “The United States and Israel must impose sanctions on Spain if it uses any American or Israeli defense or police equipment against innocent Moroccans in occupied Ceuta,” he tweeted, linking to an article he had written about how Spain, not Israel, is the real colonial power.
Simpler explanations have been offered, including by Spain’s own right wing. They blame the Spanish government for opening the doors and inviting anyone and everyone to come in. This is what leftist governments do across the West, and the effects are the same, whether we’re talking about Justin Trudeau in Canada or Angela Merkel and her famous “Wir schaffen das!” in 2015. In January of this year, the Sánchez government rammed through a royal decree, bypassing the usual protocol, to allow the legalization of half a million migrants in Spain. Many accused the government of wanting to buy votes to keep the resurgent right out of power, a charge that was strenuously accepted. “Of course we want them to vote,” Irene Montero, an MP in the leftist coalition, said at a campaign event. “We’ve got papers, regularization now, and now we’re going for nationality or changing the law so they can vote, of course.” She even referenced the Great Replacement, the “conspiracy theory” that mass migration is being used to alter the demographics of Western nations for the purpose of social engineering. “Hopefully the replacement theory [is real],” she said. “Hopefully we can sweep this country clean of fascists and racists with migrant people, working people… Of course I want replacement: replacement of fascists, of racists, of freeloaders…” It’s now clear that as many as 1.3 million illegal immigrants have applied for the new scheme, almost triple the number Sánchez promised.
Miguel Tellado, the Secretary General of Spain’s People’s Party, blamed Sánchez directly for Ceuta.
“No one can be surprised that thousands of people want to enter a country that regularizes more than a million irregular immigrants overnight,” he wrote on X.
“They come with the expectation that Pedro Sánchez will sooner rather than later turn them into Spanish citizens. Not only are we not stopping the avalanche, but we are sending the message that those who come soon will be able to become Spanish.
“The person responsible for what is happening in Ceuta is the president of the government. One more reason to kick him out as soon as possible.”
Santiago Abascal, the leader of Spain’s Vox party, called for Sánchez to be prosecuted.
The Spanish and Moroccan governments, by contrast, have both pointed the finger at people smugglers and social media. They claim smugglers took advantage of a recent Spanish Supreme Court ruling to convince tens of thousands of would-be Europeans that they could literally swim to freedom and a new life. At the end of June, the Court said deportations can only be fast-tracked for foreigners who arrive by land and attempt to overcome “border containment elements” like fences and walls. Posts on social media encouraged the false belief that swimming round Ceuta’s border, instead of climbing over it, would confer a special status on migrants that would make it easier for them to stay in Spain.
“Misinterpretations reinforced among some of those who wished to migrate the conviction that it was possible to avoid immediate return,” Moroccan officials said.
The Spanish government has carefully avoided blaming the Moroccan government, but it’s hard to believe the invasion took place without Rabat’s prior knowledge at some level, given its scale. And the Moroccan government has its own reasons to use migration against Spain, reasons that have nothing to do with events far away in the Middle East. The previous crisis, in 2021, when about 10,000 migrants entered Ceuta, coincided with a period of tension with Morocco’s main regional competitor, neighboring Algeria. Diplomatic relations broke down so seriously that the Maghreb-Europe Gas Pipeline, passing through Algeria, via Morocco, to Spain, was turned off. The gas was pumped to Spain via a different pipeline, bypassing Morocco entirely and depriving her of income and influence. The direct trigger, though, appears to have been Spain’s offer of medical treatment to the leader of the breakaway Polisario Front, which wants the former Spanish colony of Western Sahara, now largely annexed by Morocco, to be an independent state. The same regional tensions—competition with Algeria, the uncertain status of Western Sahara—converged again in the last two weeks. On 20 July, just ten days before the latest crisis, Pedro Sánchez made an official visit to Algeria and announced a major bilateral summit in the fall. Sánchez described Algeria as a “strategic partner” and “friendly nation,” compliments that were sure to anger Morocco. Three days later, Spain’s parliamentary Justice Commission approved a proposal to make it easier for Sahrawis—residents of Western Sahara—born when Spain controlled the region to apply for Spanish citizenship.
There’s a lot going on here—geopolitics is a complicated business—and already explanations have hardened into self-confirming narratives. As we know only too well in the internet age, people who’ve made up their minds see only the facts they’ve told the algorithm they want to see. But one thing, I think, is clear through the fog and the haze. The scramble for Ceuta is part of a much larger scramble that’s taking place and will take place in the coming years and decades, as huge numbers of people, driven by the promise of a better life, move north into Europe. Stephen Smith has called this the “scramble for Europe,” in a 2019 book of the same name.
Africa, a continent that is still poor but already a demographic billionaire—and will become a demographic multi-billionaire within thirty years—is knocking on Europe’s door. Not only is its population growing, but it is by far the youngest in the world. Between the Tropics of Cancer and Capricorn, four Africans out of ten are less than fifteen years old, and seven out of ten are under thirty. The balance between the past and the future is heavily tilted towards the future. A growing number of these young Africans have the means and the informed view of the world that allow them to leave in search of a better life wherever the prospects are bright. And that better life is not just a reverie: they see it on satellite TV and the internet; they are partaking in modernity by “screen-shopping” around the clock. Some of their brothers and sisters are already living in the Global North, where this virtual reality is reality tout court. So the most audacious or enterprising—sometimes the least stable as well—will head out to Europe, the closest emporium (and sometimes their former imperial metropole).
As Smith demonstrates, the movement is inevitable. Millions, probably tens or even hundreds of millions, will come. Europe will have to find a way to deal with them. Smith’s hope is that order can be maintained. Ceuta is an early indicator of just how naïve that hope is likely to prove.
Raw Egg Nationalist is Dr. Charles Cornish-Dale, an Oxford- and Cambridge-educated historian
and anthropologist, who rose to prominence as “Raw Egg Nationalist.” He has a
large social media following, is a bestselling author, has appeared on
national television, and has influenced debates on health, fitness,
politics, and culture. His latest book is 'The Last Men: Liberalism and
the Death of Masculinity.'
Source: https://amgreatness.com/2026/08/05/the-scramble-for-ceuta-what-really-caused-last-weeks-invasion-of-the-spanish-city/
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