Israel and the peace initiative.

 

 by Ami Isseroff

 

The American sponsored peace initiative seems to have little rational thinking behind it and little chance of success. But while the President of the United States may not be right, he is certainly the President of the United States. Israel cannot afford to forget that. Nonetheless, Israel's first responsibility must be to ensure that it has a viable defense.

A great peace initiative is being undertaken by the United States. The general idea seems to bundle a remodeled Arab Peace Initiative for regional peace, Palestinian-Israeli peace based on a two state solution and a solution to the problem of Iranian nuclear weapons development. Lately, a fourth element was apparently added - general nuclear disarmament and arms control, including hints that the U.S. expects Israel to become a signatory of the Nuclear Non-proliferation treaty. All this will somehow, so the theory goes, make it easier for the United States to secure its withdrawal from Iraq, and prevent a disaster in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

The United States is not acting alone. Russia has invited UN Security Council members to a meeting to promote Middle East peace. The EU has come on board with any part of the plan that involved pressuring Israel. Germany's Angela Merkel, has expressed enthusiasm for the renewed peace process, which should do its business in the next few months and should be based on a two-state solution. Tony Blair announced that a new Middle East peace plan will be unveiled in 5-6 weeks, and Jordan's King Abdullah is supposedly at work on formulating a new and improved Arab peace initiative. This is a relatively well coordinated, multilateral and multidimensional effort - an attempt by everyone to solve everything at once. The driving imperative is that the current mess cannot be allowed to continue. It is bad for Israel, bad for the Palestinians, bad for America, and provides wonderful issues and opportunities for Iran and al-Qaeda.

One may be forgiven nonetheless for expressing skepticism. The key drawbacks of the Arab peace plan in principle are the insistence of return of Palestinian refugees, denial of Jewish rights in East Jerusalem, and failure to explicitly recognize Israel as a Jewish State. Of implementation there is nothing to say, because there is simply no method of implementation and no guarantee that any Israeli concessions will produce a peace agreement. The Palestinians and others have already said that the peace plan will be precisely the same as the 2002 Arab peace initiative. As for Mahmoud Abbas, Maannews summarized his position and that of the Arabs:

He affirmed that the Arab side would be submitting the Arab Peace Initiative to Washington when he met with them, and that all sides were in agreement over its soundness. "We will not be bringing a new document,"

Moreover, given that the Palestinians do not control Gaza or Hamas, it is unlikely they could deliver on any peace plan that might be signed.

Tony Blair insists that resolving the Middle East conflict is critical to curbing Iran. Since the Middle East conflict was not resolved in several generations of diplomacy and war, that is about like saying that that in order to cure the patient it is only necessary to turn lead into gold. Rahm Emanuel, along with Blair, insists on the linkage between Iran and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton laid it on the line:

"For Israel to get the kind of strong support it is looking for vis-a-vis Iran, it can't stay on the sidelines with respect to the Palestinians and the peace efforts. They go hand in hand"...

She also insisted that a two state solution is inevitable, As for the grand plan that is supposed to stop the Iranian nuclear development project, there is no sign of it in sight. Not even a hint. The United States has declared that it is not seeking Iranian regime change. It has more or less taken the military option off the table, and has publicly warned Israel on more than one occasion and through more than one official, not to take military action on its own. There is no practical sanctions plan that can be implemented, since Russia and China would not agree to enforce or obey sanctions, the Swiss, suppliers of refined fuel to the Tehran regime would not agree to sanctions either, the UAE trades freely with Iran, and the Qataris have apparently aligned themselves with Iran.

The Arabs, the EU, The Americans, the Palestinians and the Russians are all a part of this effort. Everyone is involved in preparing this initiative or initiatives except Israel. That is ominous, to say the least.

A skeptic with some knowledge of the Middle East might be forgiven for doubting that either Middle East peace or a solution to the Iranian threat can come out of all this frenetic activity. The US is seemingly playing with an empty hand and counterfeit money. The real linkage between a peace settlement and the Iranian issue is in the opposite direction: No peace sponsored by the United States can succeed as long as Iran is there to torpedo it. The US has no leverage on Iran or Syria. It has already abandoned Lebanon to the Hezbollah, Iran's client. It has already given away its leverage on Syria by announcing that it will push for Israeli-Syrian peace. In Iraq, it is fighting to cover its withdrawal against a mounting tide of violence, probably encouraged by Iran. In Afghanistan and Pakistan, it it is soliciting help from Iran in combating the increasingly successful Taleban uprising. The Arabs have already announced, for the most part, that they are not going to be changing their peace initiative in any way, and even moderate Arab opinion fully expects that the only thing that must come out of this peace initiative is unconditional Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank. The Palestinians are nowhere near forming a unified government that will conform even nominally to any imaginable peace process.

However, there is nothing to be gained by panic on the part of Israel or of it supporters, and there is not a good foundation for assuming, as some do, that the United States has betrayed or abandoned Israel. We have not seen the American initiative yet, nor the Arab response. President Obama enjoys immense prestige. Since World War II, the president of the United States has always been recognized as the most powerful leader on earth, but Obama probably has more power to persuade than any president since Harry S Truman, and more determination to succeed at peacemaking than most previous presidents. The scary headlines about demands for Israeli concessions by Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden or others usually conceal concomitant rock solid commitments to Israeli security and a fair peace, as well as calls for Arab concessions. If nothing at all comes of this initiative other than an agreement in principle by Arabs to abandon the right of return issue in return for Israeli concessions such as agreement to a two state solution, it can still be a huge victory for Israel and peace, and it can be spun as an American victory and a Palestinian victory that will enable whatever mysterious process the US will undertake to attempt to curb Iran. The implementation of the agreement will of course be conditional on rectifying the situation in the Gaza strip and ensuring that Palestinians can really be responsible for security. Don't hold your breath until that happens.

But in order to get that benefit, Israel must play ball. The alternative to Israeli cooperation with the United States is disaster for Israel. The initiative has broad support. Israel cannot possibly stand alone against the united opinion of virtually the entire world. At some point, probably when Benjamin Netanyahu goes to Washington, Israel is going to have to commit not only to a two state solution, but possibly agree also to some other painful concessions, if the Obama administration can deliver the requisite Arab concessions. It is always necessary to ensure that Israel and its supporters are on the side of peace and are not perceived as totally isolated in the world community. That is exactly the effect that Palestinians are trying to create, and that media are trying to create with scare headlines. President Shimon Peres struck the right notes both in his remarks at the AIPAC policy conference and in his public remarks with US officials. Benjamin Netanyahu likewise struck a positive note in his brief address to the AIPAC policy meeting: Israel is prepared to resume negotiations with the Palestinians without preconditions; Iran is the common danger. Every position should emphasize points of agreement. Each move should be considered carefully. We must never give away something for nothing, but we should never make enemies or portray ourselves as bellicose for no reason. If we have to say "no," we need to say it nicely. Was it wise, for example, of Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman announce that the "peace industry" as he called it, is a waste of money? What did that remark gain, and what will it cost Israel?

It is very likely that this peace initiative will lay a great big egg, but it is also undoubtedly true that the United States government thinks that it is helping Israel and that it must have "progress" in Middle East peace. We can either be partners with our friend the United States in this venture, or we can be forced to give up the same concessions reluctantly and in bad humor, and then get blamed for the failure of the venture.

For nothing is more certain that when the great peace crusade fails once again, scapegoats will be sought, and scapegoats will be found, and will be duly sacrificed. After the last disastrous fiasco, Bill Clinton was gracious enough to pin the blame where he thought it belonged. But he was out of office by then and could afford to tell the truth. The media are already setting the stage with giant headlines about pressure on Israel, many of which are not just quite justified by the content of the stories. There is no reason to aid in this endeavor.

And what about Iran? Who will save poor little Israel from Iran? The United States is counting on negotiations and sanctions to get Iran to stop building nuclear weapons. There is no chance of any such negotiations succeeding inasmuch as the United States has absolutely nothing to trade that the Iranian regime wants more than nuclear weapons. As Joseph Kechichian points out, such negotiations are futile. The attempt to link Iran to Israeli-Palestinian peace is not impressive. The Arab states have very little to offer that could solve the crisis, so that cannot be the reason for linkage. It is hard to believe that they would invite Iranian nuclear enforced hegemony over a "Shi'ite crescent" just to spite Israel. The United States itself may or may not be short-sighted enough to be willing to live with a nuclear Iran. That cannot be a guide for Israeli policy.

The answer for Israel, as difficult as it may seem, has to be the same as it always was, "If I am not for myself, then who is?" We must make the diplomatic conditions for Israel as best as they can possibly be, but our fate is in our hands. We cannot depend on others to provide our defense in a vital issue such as this. That is the real meaning of independence. It has a cost, but if we want to be independent we must be ready to pay that cost.

Ami Isseroff

Original content is Copyright by the author 2009.