by Maj. Gen. (ret.) Yaakov Amidror
The threat that embodies the current clash of civilizations more than any other is the threat of radical Islam • ISIS is not alone -- there are others just like it, only without the beheading videos • Iran poses a far greater threat than ISIS.
Islamic State fighters in
Raqqa, Syria
|
Photo credit: AP  |
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, toward
the end of the previous century, it felt as though history was ending
and that the world would make a shift and dance solely to the beat of
the American drum. In other words, it felt as though slowly but surely
the world would march toward a more democratic future, with an open,
global economy, in many ways dictated by the American model.
But shortly after the start of the third
millennium, on Sept. 11, 2001, the biggest terror attack in history was
perpetrated on American soil, of all places. On the surface, it looked
like this event didn't change much -- life went on as it did before,
rapidly returning to its usual track. But that was an enormous optical
illusion: Osama bin Laden and al-Qaida had an enormous impact on the
American lifestyle. But even more importantly, they had an enormous
impact on the Sunni perception. In his decision last week to go to war
against the Islamic State group, U.S. President Barack Obama signaled
that we are in the midst of a "clash of civilizations," even if he
doesn't like to admit it.
The U.S., and possibly even the entire
democratic-Western world, will continue to fight radical Islam. This war
has been ongoing for at least 13 years. This war is currently being
waged in Iraq on the basis of what the Americans call a "perfect storm"
-- a collection of unrelated, unpredictable events that, together, cause
a much worse situation than each one alone. It is not a conspiracy, or
someone's colossal mistake, it is simply history unfolding and it is
nearly impossible to change history's course.
The breaking point: Sept. 11, 2001
The origins of this terrible perfect storm lie
in events that are very different and far apart from one another: The
first important event, chronologically speaking, was the Grand Ayatollah
Ruhollah Khomeini's victory over Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi in the 1979
Islamic Revolution. Khomeini succeeded in supplanting the shah's regime
with an Islamic republic led by religious figures. It was a historic
revolution that brought the Shiites to the forefront after hundreds of
years of passivity and resignation to their inferiority as the Muslim
minority. It demonstrated that a country could be run by the principles
of Islam.
The Iranians took advantage of their victory
to promote Shiite agendas all over the Middle East, and in Lebanon they
were even successful. Their actions injected the Middle East with new
dynamic forces that sparked discomfort and disquiet among a number of
Arab states. The Iranians worked toward developing Shiite terror
organizations (Hezbollah) as well as Sunni terror organizations (Hamas,
Islamic Jihad) as part of their efforts to change the face of the Middle
East.
The second event that contributed to the
perfect storm was Afghanistan's extremist Sunnis' ability to stand
strong in the face of the world's largest secular superpower --
communist Soviet Union -- causing its collapse, if you ask them. This
success served as solid proof of radical Sunni Islam's invincible power.
Likewise, this success set off a Sunni renaissance that ultimately led
to the establishment of al-Qaida in Saudi Arabia, its transfer to
Afghanistan and its focus on battling the only superpower left in the
world -- the U.S. As aforementioned, the most blatant example of the
Sunni awakening was the massive terror attack on September 11, 2001.
In the wake of this act of terrorism that
occurred on its soil, the U.S. declared war on Sunni terrorism and used
its military might to invade Afghanistan, the home of al-Qaida, and to
conquer Iraq.
The third event that led to the perfect storm
was what has been known as the Arab Spring, which, all at once,
obliterated much of the world order created by the colonialist countries
after World War I. This opened a window that let out many of the dark
forces that had been forcibly suppressed by the totalitarian regimes in
those countries undergoing this "spring." People began focusing their
loyalties on their clans, tribes, nationalities and religions instead of
their countries.
The geographical system that imposed itself on
the citizens and prevented the outbreak of these dark forces completely
disappeared in large parts of the Middle East (Libya, Syria and Iraq
are the most obvious examples). But even in states that remained
entirely intact, ostensibly, the leadership, which remained dictatorial,
must take them into consideration when making its decisions.
Tectonic, yet localized shifts also occurred:
The first shift was a direct result of the war in Iraq, where the U.S.
succeeded in overthrowing one of the strongest dictators in the Arab
world -- Saddam Hussein. This event set precedents, both in regard to
the killing of a dictator and in regard to the intervention of one
country in the affairs of another. This war also led to Iraq's ultimate
collapse, in the absence of Saddam's iron fist.
Another shift occurred in three different
places in three separate elections -- Palestinian, Egyptian and Turkish.
In each of these elections, representatives of the Muslim Brotherhood
were voluntarily elected by a majority of the population, without any
coercion.
This multiple victory indicated that Islam's
growing political power in our region was not just a random, localized
blip on the radar, but rather a deep, wide historical process, and a
reality that many in the Arab-Muslim world find desirable.
In Egypt, apparently learning from what
happened in Turkey, the generals recognized the danger and staged a
counter-revolution. In Turkey, this change signaled the end of the
longest and most impressive effort to turn a Muslim country into a
secular state with Muslim citizens.
These major events are joined by a number of
influential factors that may be less significant, but still present in
the construction of the Islamic threat: A tiny country in the Gulf, with
an infinite amount of resources, is funding and maintaining terrorist
organizations like Hamas in Gaza, the Islamist opposition in Syria and
the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. On top of that, it is doing everything
in its power to undermine moderate dictators, mainly through the media
network it funds -- Al Jazeera.
In conclusion, the Arab Spring put the power
in the street. The dictators, none of whom are promoting democracy,
cannot ignore the street, but also don't want to give up their power.
The Qatar effect
The events in the Middle East, which stem
mainly from internal processes, are compounded by three external
phenomena. The first is the absence of an international body that can
act as an arbitrator or mediator and impose sanctions on rogue countries
that jeopardize international stability, intervene in their neighbors'
business, fund terrorism, engage in terrorism or murder their own
citizens. The United Nations is a bankrupt body, both practically as
well as morally. No one takes the U.N. seriously.
Europe has gone silent and removed itself from
the Middle Eastern equation. It doesn't have the desire, the means or
the political structure necessary to make decisions and carry them out.
The individual member states of the European Union bear more
significance than the Union as a single national entity.
The U.S. has been trying to minimize its
commitment to its allies in general, and to the Middle East in
particular. In some cases, it is not willing to pay the price of
maintaining the "Pax Americana." The U.S. is the only remaining
superpower in the world (despite other powers' gains, mainly China). But
it is tired of being the world's policeman, even though it is
irreplaceable in this role.
Moreover, in the wake of the 2008 economic
crisis, many view the U.S.'s power as waning, including its economic
power. Then there is also the disappointment with the U.S. for
abandoning friends and ignoring them in their time of need (deposed
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak for example).
The combination of Middle Eastern turmoil and
the absence of an external force, be it a superpower or an international
body,capable of and seeking to stop the wild forces running amok in the
Middle East, increases the likelihood of horrifying results in the
region.
In the middle of this perfect storm, there is
Israel -- the anomaly. Jewish and democratic. The dark forces of the
Middle East are well established along Israel's tempestuous borders.
Radical Salafists in Sinai, the armed Palestinian wing of the Muslim
Brotherhood, Hamas in Gaza, and to some degree in Judea and Samaria as
well.
In Lebanon, the Iranians established the
strongest terrorist organization in the world, possessing advanced
military capabilities -- Hezbollah. In Syria there is a giant mess
thanks to Sunni organizations of varying degrees of radicalism. At the
radical end of the spectrum there is the organization that calls itself
the Islamic State group, or ISIS as some have called it.
Bear in mind that despite the differences
between them, all radical Islamist organizations have one common
fundamental principle: they all believe that Islam should rule the
world. The dispute among them, in most cases to the death, revolves
around the question of which version of Islam should rule the world.
Therefore, they are all united by a hatred for Israel. They are even
willing to overcome their differences and help each other fight Israel
from either side of the Islamic fence. That is how Shiite Iran, which is
currently killing Sunnis in Syria, Iraq and in the Sistan and
Baluchestan Province, can back a Sunni organization like Islamic Jihad
and provide so much help to the radical Sunni organization Hamas.
Don't forget Iran
Whether intentionally or not, Israel is seen
as a foreign agent in the region -- an outpost of another world: the
hostile, democratic-liberal, long arm of the West, led by the U.S. The
truth is that we are precisely that. That is why we mustn't forget the
most important thing: in this cruel world, where our enemies wield 21st
century weapons with a 7th century mentality, there will be no room for
us is we lose our power, or the determination to use it.
A long time will pass, and many wars will be
waged before the rules that currently govern Europe, or the relationship
between the U.S. and Canada, can be applied to the Middle East without
causing a catastrophe. A former leader of a Western country told me
recently that he understands that Israel is on the front lines of the
war between the modern democratic world and the forces of radical Islam.
Not everyone understands that.
Obama's declaration of war against ISIS, one
of the more prominent dark forces mentioned above, is enormously
important because it will help combat the spread of the organization,
even if it fails to obliterate it.
But it is imperative that the war against this
vocal group, which managed to draw a lot of attention with its penchant
for beheading prisoners, does not overshadow the need to fight and stop
other radical Islamist groups. ISIS is not alone -- there are others
just like it, but without beheading videos. Israel's battles against
Hamas and against the nuclearization of Iran are not separate from the
various efforts to stop radical groups in the Muslim world.
In direct relation to Israel, but also, in my
opinion, to the rest of the world, Iran poses a far greater threat than
ISIS. We cannot allow the justified feeling of disgust and horror
brought on by the shocking ISIS beheading videos mix up our priorities.
A nuclear Iran will back organizations that
will not hesitate to kill anyone who stands in their way. This is a
purely potential future threat, but if it materializes it will be far
worse than the threat of the Islamic State, against which a U.S.-led
coalition is being formed.
Two final remarks, one philosophical and the other practical
In the spirit of the chaos theory, one could
say that even if we have reliable, detailed information about the
different factors that converged to bring about the current situation,
there is no way to predict what the future holds on the basis of the
same phenomena. Furthermore, external intervention in the process, like
an attack on ISIS by the U.S.-led coalition for example, could have
unpredictable ramifications that no one is even imagining today. As
Professor Joseph Dan once said about all phenomena in the natural world
and in human society: "There are reasons, but their results are
impossible to predict. A small number of factors can develop into
infinitely variable results, and there is no way to accurately predict
the outcome." In other words, we should always view our ability to
assess future developments in the region with a degree of humility.
Therefore, it is advisable to follow two
important rules on the practical level: the first rule is that we must
always prepare for the worst possible outcome of the current situation,
after outlining a number of potential outcomes. We have no way of
knowing what will happen, therefore we need to speculate a range of
logical eventualities to know how to prepare and what risks to take, in
light of the other possibilities.
The second rule has to do with taking risks.
Since Israel is a small country facing a complex reality, it should
refrain from actions that involve risk, even if the potential payoff is
hefty. It is always advisable to prefer the risk-diminishing options.
This is not the time to dare and take risks. Rather it is time to
minimize risk as much as possible.
In Israel's current state, in the absence of any real
margins of safety, it is best to take as much precaution as possible,
even when there is a price to be paid, certainly when dealing with the
drastic changes in the Middle East and absolute uncertainty about the
future. Energy must not be wasted on anything but fighting the main
threats.
Maj. Gen. (ret.) Yaakov Amidror
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_article.php?id=20347
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
By
(as put by them) “doing their duty,” their actions managed to save
comrades who were in distress and then, similarly, saved and extracted
themselves and many others from dire circumstances.