by Mohammad al Kassim
The changes also come as a succession battle for the post-Abbas period looms.
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PA President Mahmoud Abbas.
(photo credit: RONALDO SCHEMIDT/POOL/REUTERS)
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Rumors of imminent changes within the Palestinian Authority government continue to swirl, despite official denials from Ramallah.
For more stories from The Media Line go to themedialine.org News of a possible cabinet reshuffle is neither "new" nor "news," an official in Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh's office told The Media Line.
"The
prime minister is continuing with his schedule and it is business as
usual," the aide said. "We know that the president wants to make
changes. Mr Shtayyeh has offered his resignation in the past but it was
declined, so until we hear the news officially, we will go on as usual."
Earlier this month, PA President Mahmoud Abbas fired 12 provincial governors
in the West Bank and Gaza Strip in what many say is part of an
"overhaul" in personnel in the political and security structure. The
shakeup continued some days later with the announcement of the
retirement of 35 of his foreign envoys, all of them over the age of 65.
Experts
believe the dismissals are an attempt to promote newer leadership and
quell increasing domestic, regional, and international criticism of the
PA.
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas greets Jordan’s King Abdullah in Ramallah on March 28. (credit: PPO/REUTERS)
Ramallah-based political analyst Esmat Mansour told The Media Line that Abbas’s visit to Jordan contributed to the speed with which he carried out the firings.
“It
is not possible for the president to ignore Arab advice, as well as
international demands, out of fear for the future and fate of the PA,”
Mansour said.
Analysts
say the Palestinian leadership is scrambling to appease regional
players while satisfying the disgruntled Palestinian street, which sees
the PA as ineffective, incompetent, and a tool in the hands of Israel.
“Abbas
is trying through these decisions to give the impression that he is
still influential and in control of things, and that change comes by his
own will and is not imposed on him by anyone,” Mansour said.
As
part of the shakeup, Abbas is planning a limited cabinet shuffle in the
next few weeks, according to Palestinian media outlets. This may affect
the current prime minister.
Ramallah-based political analyst Nihad Abu Ghosh told The Media Line
that the PA is facing severe challenges to its political existence,
putting its future as a viable political entity into question.
"Abbas
recognizes his and the PA’s sinking popularity, and we may be in the
process of another wave of changes in the PA," Abu Ghosh said.
He said Abbas hopes that the moves will help calm mounting criticism, at least for now.
"Without
the slightest doubt, the Palestinian political system is suffering from
a severe crisis because of the failure to hold elections on time and
because of the long reign of Palestinian Authority President Abbas in
power, despite the end of his term," Abu Ghosh said.
Abbas,
now 87, was elected in 2005 for a four-year term that ended in 2009 and
has since then remained in power without any elections being held.
The post-Abbas era
"There
is uncertainty about the Palestinian political future in the post-Abbas
era. This matter leads to a kind of internal conflict between the
centers of power over the caliphate. On the other hand, there is a
crisis in the political direction of the Palestinian national project,"
Abu Ghosh said.
The
shakeup comes as Abbas's Fatah party, which runs the PA, grapples with
mounting political and economic crises. Many analysts say the
Palestinian public is resentful of the PA and of Abbas.
"But
all this [shakeup] will not solve the crisis, because the essence of
the crisis is in the system as a whole and the lack of presidential and
legislative elections," Abu Ghosh said. "There is a whole generation
that has not been able to exercise their constitutional right to vote."
Ramallah-based political analyst Fares Sarfandi told The Media Line that the expected ministerial reshuffle will not affect the prime minister or most government ministries.
"Change
will not affect the prime minister, it's not related to the sovereign
ministries, but rather some service ministries that have a direct impact
on people's lives," he said. "This change is superficial. It will not
affect the finance or foreign ministers, for example, who have been in
their posts for years."
The latest decisions followed a brief and unannounced visit by Abbas to Jordan, where he met King Abdullah II.
A Jordanian official in Amman who asked to remain anonymous told The Media Line
that Jordan's intelligence and political officials were concerned about
the stability of the PA and about the rising violence between Israelis
and Palestinians in the West Bank.
“There
are credible reports that Abbas’s control and his inner circle have
been compromised,” the official. “We have witnessed a rise in weapons
smuggling this year, and the performance of the security apparatus is
questionable.”
According
to the source, Jordanian intelligence officials concerned by the
increase in violence have been pointing their fingers at the PA
governors and top PA security and intelligence officials.
Violence
in the West Bank has risen sharply in 2023. According to officials in
Ramallah, at least 220 Palestinians have been killed by the Israeli
military, in what the United Nations has described as the deadliest year
since the end of the Second Intifada almost 20 years ago. Meanwhile, at
least 35 Israelis have been killed by Palestinian attackers during the
same period.
The
extremist Hamas and Islamic Jihad factions have each claimed
responsibility for many of the attacks against Israelis, and both groups
have seen their popularity among Palestinians grow rapidly.
“They
are both exploiting the security chaos and trying to capitalize on it,”
the Jordanian official said, adding that Jordan considers the situation
a threat to its own national security.
“Perhaps
it is competing with Fatah in the West Bank, and this is not new, but
Hamas has its own crises in Gaza,” Abu Ghosh said.
The
Jordanian source said that Jordanian intelligence had expressed
concerns about the deteriorating security situation in the West Bank and
the growing fear that it may lead to the collapse of the PA.
The
official said it was for this reason that Abbas was “summoned” to
Jordan for an urgent meeting. The message to Abbas was clear, that
immediate action must be taken before things spiral out of control.
“Jordan's
fear of chaos is understandable, and this is not new. The West Bank is
alongside Jordan. It is afraid of chaos, of producing new refugees, or
of exporting the Palestinian crisis to Jordan, and this is what Israel
wants as well,” Abu Ghosh said.
Changes within the security services are reportedly already underway.
The
Media Line has learned that Palestinian intelligence services chief
Gen. Majed Faraj has been tasked with recommending replacements for many
of the current security leaders.
One
of his most important duties is to sift through the top security brass,
ensuring that only those with absolute loyalty to Abbas and the
officials in charge of their units remain, and not those loyal to
previously powerful figures such as Jibril Rajoub, a member of the
Central Committee and founder of the Preventive Security Service, or
Maj. Gen. Tawfiq al-Tirawi, founder of the General Intelligence Service
and former president of the Istiqlal Security University. Both still
enjoy widespread support in the security divisions they once directed.
During
a recent meeting between Abbas and the heads of the PA security
services, he made his dissatisfaction with their performances known and
informed them that change was coming.
Observers expect the possible changes also to affect the heads of the security services.
Sarfandi said Jordan has a "real" and "strong" role to play in protecting the Palestinian Authority.
"There
is no doubt that there is concern about the internal situation of the
[Palestinian] Authority and fear of its collapse and the spread of
chaos," he said. "Jordan is the closest and most capable of preserving
the situation in the occupied West Bank. Because if things go into
chaos, Jordan will pay the price."
The changes also come as a succession battle for the post-Abbas period looms.
"There
is a strong struggle over who will succeed the president, and these
arrangements may be part of this struggle. This is evident from the
marginalization of Jibril Rajoub, for example, and the strengthening of
the role of Hussein al-Sheikh [secretary general of the PLO Executive
Committee],” Abu Ghosh said.
Mohammad al Kassim
Source: https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-757340
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