by Caroline Glick
  The final issue that will determine whether or not Netanyahu forms the next government. 
 
  Benjamin Netanyahu became Israel’s 
longest-serving prime minister on Friday, and he is favored to win the 
next elections in September. But the outcome is still uncertain.
  On Sunday, the President tweeted: “Congratulations to Bibi @Netanyahu on
 becoming the longest serving PM in the history of Israel. Under your 
leadership, Israel has become a technology powerhouse and a world class 
economy….”
  He continued:
 “….Most importantly you have led Israel with a commitment to the values
 of democracy, freedom, and equal opportunity that both our nations 
cherish and share!”
  Netanyahu quickly thanked Trump for his support, tweeting,
 “Thank you, President Trump, for your warm words, outstanding support 
& incredible friendship. I’m honored to have the opportunity to work
 with you. Under your leadership, we’ve made the alliance between our 
two remarkable countries stronger than ever. I know there’s more to 
come.”
  The exchange between the two leaders is a testament to 
the strength of their relationship, perhaps the strongest relationship a
 U.S. president has ever had with an Israeli leader. The strength of 
their ties has played a key role in the rapid expansion of the 
U.S.-Israel alliance during Trump’s tenure.
  To get a sense of 
how intimate the relations have become, consider the reports in the Arab
 media regarding last Thursday’s mysterious airstrike against an Iranian
 missile base in Nineveh province in Iraq. According to the Arab media,
 Israeli bombers carried out the bombing after taking off from a U.S. 
airbase along the tri-border between Israel, Jordan and Syria.
 
 The allegations themselves show that the Arabs and the Iranians view 
U.S.-Israel ties to be deeper and far more operational than ever before.
  In light of the unprecedented growth of U.S.-Israel ties under Trump and Netanyahu, it makes sense that Trump is frustrated that Netanyahu is now standing for election for the second time in a year.
  Trump administration officials have reportedly expressed concerns to 
their Israeli interlocutors about Netanyahu’s political future and his 
possible successors in the event he is defeated in the September 17 
elections.
  To recall, Israel held general elections on April 9. Netanyahu and his Likud Party won a commanding mandate to form a governing coalition. Likud garnered 35 seats in Israel’s 120-member Knesset. Blue and White, the center-left party that competed against Likud, also won 35 seats, with slightly fewer votes. But overall, the center-right and right-wing parties won 55 percent of the vote, to the center-left and left’s 36 percent. The remainder of the vote went to Arab parties that traditionally have refused to join any governing coalition.
  Despite the right/center-right’s commanding electoral victory, two 
obstacles blocked Netanyahu from forming a coalition government and 
compelled him to call for new elections.
  First, Avigdor Liberman, Netanyahu’s former defense minister and the head of the small Israel Beitenu party, refused to join the
 coalition. Liberman’s party won five seats in April and so gave 
Netanyahu’s coalition a potential majority of 65 seats out of 120. By 
refusing to join the coalition, Liberman prevented Netanyahu from 
forming a governing majority.
  The second reason Netanyahu was 
unable to form a government was the fragmentation of the ideological 
right wing. Just as elections were being called in December 2018, 
then-education minister Naftali Bennett and then-justice minister Ayelet
 Shaked announcedthat
 they were bolting their party and forming a new, more socially liberal 
party called the New Right. (Full disclosure: the author ran as a 
candidate on the New Right list.) Also running was a former Likud 
lawmaker named Moshe Feiglin, whose Zehut party shared similar positions on social and economic issues the New Right.
  That splintered the ideological right. Israel’s electoral law requires
 parties to win a minimum of 3.25 percent of the overall vote, which 
translates into four Knesset seats, to cross the electoral threshold. 
Cumulatively, the New Right and Zehut won 6 percent of the vote, the 
equivalent of seven Knesset seats. But neither of them crossed the 
threshold. The right lost seven seats it would otherwise have run, and 
Netanyahu lost the ability to form a government without Liberman.
  Liberman insisted that
 his refusal to join Netanyahu’s government owed to his opposition to 
the ultra-Orthodox parties that form the core of the Likud’s natural 
coalition partners. But neither the general public nor the Israeli 
commentariat believed his claims. The two men have a thirty-year 
relationship that has known its ups and downs. Most Israelis believe 
that Liberman was motivated by hatred of Netanyahu. Once it was clear 
that the election results gave Liberman the power to block Netanyahu 
from forming a government, Liberman was in a position to dictate his 
terms for joining the coalition. Netanyahu and the ultra-Orthodox 
parties were willing to accept his demands. The fact that Liberman still
 refused to make a deal demonstrated that his desire to destroy 
Netanyahu politically outweighed rational political calculations.
  The polling data taken
 since the election in April indicates that there has been no movement 
along the right-left political spectrum. Fifty-five percent of Israelis 
still identify with the right and center-right. And Netanyahu remains 
the leader that the public wishes to see in standing at the helm of the 
next government.
  At the same time, the repeat elections that 
Liberman was able to instigate due to the fragmentation of the 
ideological right revolve around one issue: Netanyahu.
  On the 
left, parties are being formed and organized around this issue. Former 
Israeli premier Ehud Barak reentered the political fray as the head of a
 new party – the Israel Democratic Party – with the sole agenda of unseating Netanyahu. Blue and White also insists it will not join a coalition government with Netanyahu.
  The main dispute that seems to be animating and fragmenting the left 
in fact is whether any of the parties in the bloc will be willing to 
join a coalition led by Netanyahu. Labor Party leader Amir Peretz, a 
former union leader and avowed socialist, forged a coalition with 
another socialist party last week. Both he and his new partner, Gesher 
Party leader Orly Levy, have hinted that
 they will be willing to break ranks and join a Netanyahu-led coalition.
 If they follow through after the elections, they will neutralize 
Liberman’s power to make or break the next government.
  On the 
right, three issues will determine whether the 55 percent of Israelis 
who favor right-wing or center-right parties will see the formation of a
 center-right government under Netanyahu’s leadership.
  The first issue is whether the bloc without Liberman will have the requisite 61 Knesset seats to form a government . Current polling still gives Liberman the kingmaker role. But it is hard to credit polls so early on in the race.
  The second question is what will happen on the ideological right. A 
week remains before the parties finalize their lists and submit them to 
the Central Elections Commission. Currently, negotiations are ongoing 
between Shaked and Bennett’s New Right party and the Jewish Home party 
they abandoned. The parties hope to unify and bring in another 
right-wing splinter party. If these negotiations succeed, the prospect 
of April’s vote dump repeating itself will diminish significantly. 
Netanyahu’s prospects of forming a government without Liberman will rise
 in turn.
  The final issue that will determine whether or not 
Netanyahu forms the next government is whether and how many other 
politicians on the right will join Liberman in working to overthrow 
Netanyahu, even at the price of allowing the formation of a leftist 
government.
  Within Likud, senior politicians have told 
Breitbart News that they will not permit a third election. “If Netanyahu
 can’t form a government this time around, he will be unseated,” one 
senior party official said. Several others agree.
  They have 
also said clearly that they will prefer to form a government with Blue 
and White without Netanyahu than to hold a third election.
  In short, while the Israeli public shares the
 Trump administration’s view that Netanyahu is the best man to lead 
Israel today, a handful of Israeli politicians in key positions would be
 willing if not happy to see him go.
  The clarity of his 
expected mandate will determine whether these politicians – motivated by
 ambition and envy — succeed or fail.
 
Caroline Glick is the Director of the David Horowitz Freedom Center's Israel Security 
Project and the Senior Contributing Editor of The Jerusalem Post. For 
more information on Ms. Glick's work, visit carolineglick.com. 
Source:  https://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/274418/israeli-election-still-wild-card-caroline-glick  
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