by Ariel Bolstein
Hat tip: Dr. Jean-Charles Bensoussan
The Kremlin knows Iran has the power to throw the entire Middle East into general chaos, and it has many reasons to fear such a scenario
Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald
Trump attend a summit in Vietnam in Nov. 2017
Photo: AP
Israel's
diplomatic standing is steadily improving in many regions of the world.
But one of the country's greatest diplomatic achievements is the
turnaround in ties with Russia.
Russia is
not an ideal partner. Far from it. Its conduct in the global arena is
often characterized by aggression, and what Russia perceives as its
national interests often contradicts the fundamental values of Western
civilization. But politics, particularly international politics, require
players to be skilled in the art of the possible.
Israel
can't pick and chose the superpowers that exert their influence and
weight in the Middle East. The only thing Israel can do is to open
channels of communication with the superpowers that clearly do have
influence. That is precisely what Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has
done so successfully. But much like a game of chess, it is not enough to
identify the possible – players must also determine the path to the
possible and overcome many obstacles on the way to achieving it. Only
true grandmasters achieve this goal, and when it comes to relations with
Russia, Netanyahu has indeed displayed the characteristics of a
grandmaster.
Over the
last 10 years, Israel's relationship with Russia has changed
unrecognizably. The frequency of the meetings between the countries'
respective leaders, the positive atmosphere surrounding these meetings,
and even the absence of media leaks regarding the agreements or
disagreements therein, all attest to the seriousness of the relations.
The
intensive exchanges, including meetings between security chiefs and
military commanders, point to a significant upgrade in the
understandings between the two countries. The personal chemistry between
the countries' to leaders has also helped. There are not many foreign
leaders who enjoy true respect from the Kremlin. Netanyahu is one of
this select few.
Let us not
kid ourselves, though. Barring any far-reaching permutations in the
region, Russia is not about to become Israel's ally. In facing off with
the U.S., Russia has opted for a strategy that has sent it into tactical
alliances with Iran, Venezuela, North Korea and other undesirables.
Additionally, the Russians are determined not to abandon their age-old
allies – from the Soviet era – the Palestine Liberation Organization and
Syrian President Bashar Assad.
In the face
of these challenges, everything that has been achieved so far is quite
admirable. Ever since Russia entered the Syrian quagmire, Israel has
succeeded in translating its military might, and its other assets, into
diplomatic power, allowing Israel to strike understandings with Russia
to protect mutual interests. In practice, this has ensured Israel's
complete freedom to take action in Syria. So while the Russians may have
claimed Syria as their territory, the IDF has not been forced out.
As a
result, Israel has been free to strike targets in Syria whenever it saw
fit, and the Russians never made a peep. Even after Israel's multiple
strikes deep within Syria on Saturday, in response to an Iranian drone
that breached Israeli air space, Moscow didn't go any further than
making a toothless plea to honor Syrian sovereignty, which, in diplomacy
speak, means go ahead and protect your interests, but try not to harm
ours in the process.
So while
Russia is not Israel's ally, it respects Israel's interests. Anyone who
fails to see the enormity of this achievement – Israel's ability to
maintain its freedom of action in Syria – simply doesn't understand
Russia's nature or Israel's natural limitations when it comes to
relations with this superpower.
At the
start, the playing field was not favorable for Israel. Ever since his
ascent to power, Russian President Vladimir Putin has gradually
intensified Russia's resistance to the policies of the U.S. and its
allies in almost every arena. He fortified his rule, which often
resembles a monarchy, and set out to restore the greatness of the former
Soviet Union.
Israel
shouldn't be too eager to see the Soviet Union restored. The Soviet
Union was an arch-enemy of Zionism. But still, while anti-Western
sentiments are rapidly taking hold in the Russian population and
certainly in the Russian government, Israel has managed to make itself
the exception, evading Russian hostility.
Among most
of the Russia population, the U.S. is perceived as a clear enemy, but
Israel is not. Furthermore, Israel enjoys this special status without
having had to mar its existing relationships with the objects of
Russia's objections, which have been leading the charge against Russia
as well. On the contrary, the Russia media often notes that Netanyahu is
the only world leader that has the ear of both Putin and U.S. President
Donald Trump. This unique position gives Netanyahu a lot of leverage.
The big
question now is whether Israel has taken full advantage of what its
relationship with Russia has to offer. Is it possible to persuade Russia
to align even more closely with Israeli interests, particularly in
curbing Iran's aggressive aspirations?
The
Russians don't have an abundance of partners, so they are in no rush to
let go of their alliance with the Iranians. Without the land forces
Tehran sent to Syria, the Russians would have never succeeded in turning
the war around and salvaging the Assad regime, which was headed for a
near-certain fall.
Even after
Russia declared "victory" a number of times, and thinned its own
presence in Syria, it still relies heavily on Iran's forces. Perhaps the
Russians are starting to understand that in the Middle East, the real
trouble comes when you declare a victory, and that without the Iranians
they don't stand a chance of imposing their will on Syria.
On top of
that, there is also the financial aspect. Iran is a substantial
commercial partner for Russia, and Russia's hopes of tapping Syria's
energy reserves (as a way of compensating itself for the massive
investment in the war there) will never materialize without Iran's
approval.
However, it
would be a mistake to infer that the Russia's and Iran's interests
don't overlap. Their alliance rests on immediate gains rather than
ideological kinship. During the few years that they have been
collaborating in the Syrian civil war, they have had quite a few
disagreements. For example, when the Russians drafted a constitution for
a future federal Syria state, it was met with immediate resistance, not
just from Assad but also from Iran. Tehran objected to the idea of
federalization or granting autonomy to this or that territory within
Syria, and the hostile response was an embarrassment for the Russians.
Moreover,
Moscow understands that Iranian adventurism could drag the entire region
into a general clash, which could deprive the Russians of their Syrian
loot while bringing the U.S. into the mix in full force. Such a scenario
would completely undo all of Putin's gains in the Middle Eastern front,
and therefore, the Kremlin has every reason to be wary.
Keep in
mind that despite Russia's ambition, and despite that fact that it sees
itself as a "first fiddle" in the rapidly changing world, the Russians
still lag far behind the U.S. in every practical parameter, starting
with the economy (the U.S.'s GDP is 10 times that of Russia) and ending
with military power.
The
Russians' goal is still as it always was, to restore the country's
former glory. And perhaps this is the key to distancing them from the
ayatollahs. Russia would consider abandoning Iran only if whatever they
are offered as an alternative contains the ultimate temptation –
recognition of Russia as a superpower. Such a change can only be
effected by one man, and his name is Donald Trump.
Ariel Bolstein
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/2018/02/16/the-art-of-the-possible/
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Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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