by Seth J. Frantzman
Why would a high-ranking member of the Hamas terrorist group suddenly decide to leak these key details on the same day that ceasefire talks are ongoing?
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The same day that ceasefire talks took place in Doha, a report emerged on the BBC that suggested Hamas had “lost control over most of Gaza.”
The timing of the report leads to questions. According to the report, “A senior officer in Hamas’s security forces has told the BBC the Palestinian armed group has lost about 80% of its control over the Gaza Strip and that armed clans are filling the void.”
However, if Hamas has lost control why is it able to negotiate from a position of strength in Qatar and continue to hold onto demands it has made for the last year?
The report said that the source of the claims is a “lieutenant-colonel” in Hamas’s “security forces.” Why would a high-ranking member of Hamas suddenly decide to leak these key details on the same day that ceasefire talks are ongoing?
The talks are aimed at presenting Hamas's proposals to continue its rule in Gaza. The report would seem to weaken the Hamas position. However, the report could also strengthen the view of some Israeli officials that Israel has won in Gaza. If Hamas says it has collapsed, why not take its word for it and end the war and claim victory? Could the Hamas officer thus be leaking details that Hamas wants to be leaked?
The report said that the Hamas member said the group’s “command and control system had collapsed due to months of Israeli strikes that have devastated the group’s political, military and security leadership.”
Nearly all Hamas leaders killed?
The Hamas member claimed that 95% of Hamas leaders have been killed. “There’s barely anything left of the security structure.” How does Hamas continue to hold around 35%-40% of Gaza and rule over 2 million people?Hamas also claimed it could deliver the hostages, according to reports of a possible deal. How can both things be true, that Hamas has no control, but controls 2 million people and the hostages?
“Criminal gangs are everywhere, society is collapsing,” the source claimed. “About the security situation, let me be clear: it has completely collapsed. Totally gone. There’s no control anywhere,” he said.
How is this possible? If there was a complete breakdown, wouldn’t we see video of it and evidence? He claimed that people had looted a Hamas security headquarters. Wouldn’t there be a video of this?
The Hamas source told the BBC that gangs or armed clans were taking over. This would dovetail with reports that Israel has backed militias and gangs in Gaza. Therefore, if Hamas is defeated and falling apart, why doesn’t the IDF simply sweep Hamas aside now? Instead, Israel is considering a new ceasefire that would appear to preserve Hamas in power.
The BBC report went on to claim that “six armed groups affiliated with powerful local clans have emerged as serious contenders to fill the void, according to the officer.” The report then mentioned Yasser Abu Shabab, who it says is backed by the Palestinian Authority. He is a militia leader who is also apparently accepted by Israel. “Israel confirmed last month that it was supplying him with weapons,” the BBC said. The report then portrayed this man as a potentially “unifying figure.”
This then leads to the second part of the article. After the anonymous source said that Hamas had collapsed, the article explained that Abu Shabab is “working to coordinate with other armed groups to form a joint council aimed at toppling Hamas.”
The article then portrayed Abu Shabab as also in touch with Egypt and he “maintains good ties with Mohammad Dahlan’s camp.” Dahlan is a former Fatah leader of Gaza who fled in 2007 and has reportedly resided in the UAE over the years.
This article is interesting because it appears to do two things at once. It claims that Hamas is collapsing and seems to raise up Abu Shabab as a new face of the resistance against Hamas in Gaza. It portrays Shabab as linked to Egypt, the PA and Dahlan. Via Dahlan, one could then extrapolate that he is potentially backed by Gulf countries.
However, at the same time, Hamas leaders in Doha are in talks about a ceasefire. How can both things be true at the same time? How can Hamas be collapsing but also in talks?
Hamas doesn’t appear under pressure in the talks. Hamas seems to know that Israel won’t go into the remaining 35% of Gaza that Hamas controls. These are the central camps and Gaza City and Mawasi areas. Israel has never entered these areas during the war for fear of harming hostages.
This gives Hamas an area to recuperate. Is there evidence that Hamas's rule in those areas has collapsed? So that, there is not. This raises questions about the motive of the source who spoke to the BBC and the motive of the article in portraying Abu Shabab as on the verge of apparently challenging Hamas for the rule of Gaza.
Seth J. Frantzman
Source: https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-860232
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