Mordechai Kedar: Jordan and Radical Islam

by Mordechai Kedar

Read the article in Italiano (translated by Yehudit Weisz, edited by Angelo Pezzana)

Ever since December 2010, when the phenomenon known as the "Arab Spring" began in Tunisia, there has been one motto that passes, like a leitmotif through each Arab domain: "The people want to overthrow the regime". This motto is on all the posters used in the demonstrations, on the walls of buildings, on flyers that are handed out in the streets; the spokesmen of the various opposition groups and the demonstrating throngs cried it out hoarsely and repeated it again and again, as an unvarying mantra. This slogan may have been the most obvious rhetorical feature of public discourse in the Arab world during the past year and a half, because it signified the events that led to the collapse of the regimes in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen and apparently in Syria as well. The intensity and strength of the use of this slogan was an indication of the height of the flames singing the feet of the seats of government in these states.

Jordan has managed until now to remain untouched by these problems, and King Abdullah II knew how to navigate matters of the kingdom in a way that such that the waves of the revolution that were washing the rest of the Arab world did not yet wash over his kingdom. In an article that we published here four months ago, we dealt with the problem that the Jordanian monarchy has with the Palestinian majority in Jordan. Within the past few weeks - mainly since the victory of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, Tunisia and Morocco - a different sort of problem is now becoming apparent: the problem of radical political Islam.

This problem is not new, because radical Islamist groups have existed in Jordan for many years, however the monarchy knew how to put them in their place using a combination of the carrot and the stick: prison and torture on one hand, while allowing political and public activities on the other. But the political activity of the Jordanian opposition was always placed within the administrative frameworks of the state, meaning the monarchy made sure that their influence remained marginal. The principal framework is the law of elections, which undergoes basic and frequent changes, in order to make sure that the results of the "democratic" elections will create a feeling of openness, pluralism and legitimacy, but at the same time will preserve the status quo and prevent too great a change to the balance of political power.

Elections in Jordan have always been a source of tension between the regime and the political bodies for three main reasons: a) the natural public expectation that as a result of the elections an effective parliament will result, that will have genuine authorities, but this has never happened, because the laws of parliament can not contradict the decisions of the king and certainly can not remove him from his throne; b) the elections are supposed to reflect the attitudes of the population and its cross section of political opinion and social and cultural attitudes, and this doesn't happen either; c) parliament represents mainly the traditional trends and interests of the Bedouin tribes which are a minority among the population, and marginalizes other groups, including those with modern viewpoints.

Approximately two weeks ago parliament passed a new law dealing with elections that raised the number of representatives from 120 to 140 and determined that every voter would be able to choose two representatives: one from his local area and one from a national list, which is limited to only 17 seats. This significance of this apportionment is that local tribes will continue to have more political weight and the general, national ideological lists will have less weight. The increase in the number of seats intended for women from 12 to 15 arouses much criticism from all directions: the modernists and women's organizations want more seats, while the Islamists want a smaller number of seats allocated to women. The election law has not yet been enacted because the king has still not approved it, and apparently will not approve it because of public opposition.

However this hasn't succeeded in silencing the opposition: last Friday huge demonstrations were held in several of the cities of Jordan, demanding constitutional changes that would reflect the will of the street to allow the election of a parliament with real authorities and to establish a fair and effective government. These demonstrations streamed into the streets after Friday prayers, apparently under the influence of the sermons delivered by the clerics. We saw this phenomenon in Egypt in January of 2011, and in Syria during March and April of 2011: The mosque and Friday sermons serve as the match that ignites the barrel of gunpowder filled with the rage of the public and the will of the people to radically change the corrupt and illegitimate regime. The miserable economic situation in Jordan adds fuel to the fire, and strengthens the feeling of marginalization felt by not a few sectors.

Zaki Bani Irshid, the general supervisor of the Muslim Brotherhood movement in Jordan, said during a demonstration: "The time has come for us too in Jordan to be happy like the Egyptian people are happy", while Ali Abu al-Sukkar, head of the Shura Council, the council of the "Islamic Action Front", that represents the Muslim Brotherhood, said openly and brazenly to the media: "Just as the will of the Egyptian people was victorious, thus the will of the Jordanian people will be victorious and the aspirations to see real reforms will be realized. Today, the voice of the Jordanian citizen echoes throughout all districts, as he emphasized that he will not be put off, nor will he accept partial solutions, trickery or manipulation regarding the public's expectations to see real improvement in governmental systems."

The message expressed through these words is that just as in Egypt the public succeeded to overthrow Mubarak and to set up a representative of the Muslim Brotherhood at the head of the pyramid of power, thus it must be in Jordan. There can not be a clearer or sharper message than this. The interesting thing about this demonstration is that leftist groups also took part in it, and this too is reminiscent of Egypt, because in the first phase of the demonstrations in Egypt, all of the groups who opposed Mubarak were united.

Slogans that were heard in the demonstrations were also interesting: people called the parliament (majlis al-nuab - House of Representatives) the pejorative "majlis al-doab" House of the Worms, and there were signs saying: "Start the Countdown", "Victory to the Will of the People", "Congratulations to Egypt", "Where is the Corrupt One? the Reforms Will Sweep You Away". "The Cost of Living is not Reasonable", "The Prices are on Fire and the Citizen is Worried". The king, recognizing the danger inherent in Friday demonstrations, with slogans and signs of this sort, froze the election law and sent it back to the House of Representatives to increase the number of seats for the national lists at the expense of the locals, and thus "threw a bone" to the demonstrators.

Security forces that accompanied the demonstration were not armed, however their presence in full uniform was conspicuous. The message that they sent was that as long as the demonstrations stay within the accepted norms they will be permitted to continue. Against this background it is important to note that for a long time in Jordan there has been sharp criticism against the cruelty with which the security forces act towards groups of radical Islamists, who call themselves "Salafia Jihadia", and whose goal it is to fight with the force of jihad, to return Muslim society to the good times, pure values and proper rulers that it had in the seventh century.

A 16-year-old youth, Layth al-Kalaulah, who apparently participated in the demonstration against the regime last weekend, was caught by an arm of the security force and underwent investigation under torture that included putting out burning cigarettes on his body. He is a resident of the city al-Salt, in the Jordan Valley, where there is activity of the Salafia Jihadia, and apparently the young man was a member of this group. This is not the first case that Jordanian security forces are accused of torture: In recent years the UN and a number of human rights organizations published reports on the use of systematic torture in Jordanian prisons on those who opposed the regime. Confessions were extracted from them illegally, and those responsible for the torture are not usually brought to justice.

It must also be noted that in Egypt a grievous event happened a number of months before the demonstrations broke out in January 2011, in which a youth in Alexandria was tortured to death, and this caused a stream of thousands of demonstrators to crowd into the streets. In the opinion of observers, this event strengthened the negative feeling of the population towards the regime, because photographs of the youth "before" and "after" were circulated in the various media and reached the masses. In Syria too, in the beginning of the events in March 2011, photographs of children and youths who had been tortured by the regime were distributed via the social networks, and these photographs poured oil on the fire of the demonstrations.

Al Jazeera, which broadcast live coverage of the demonstrations in Jordan last Friday, finished the report with this sentence: "The people want to reform the regime", which is clearly a variation of the sentence "The people want to topple the regime". In this way, almost overtly, Al Jazeera exploits the internal tensions in Jordan and tries to ignite the domestic front in this state as well, after the great success that this Qatari channel has already scored in setting afire the streets of Tunisia, Egypt, Libya Yemen and Syria. The king will need great wisdom to be able to stand up against the rising waves of opposition, from within as well as from the direction of Al Jazeera, the jihadi channel of the Emirate of Qatar, whose rulers suffer from severe megalomania.

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Dr. Mordechai Kedar (Mordechai.Kedar@biu.ac.il) is an Israeli scholar of Arabic and Islam, a lecturer at Bar-Ilan University and the director of the Center for the Study of the Middle East and Islam (under formation), Bar Ilan University, Israel. He specializes in Islamic ideology and movements, the political discourse of Arab countries, the Arabic mass media, and the Syrian domestic arena.

Translated from Hebrew by Sally Zahav.

Links to Dr. Kedar's recent articles on this blog:

• The Brothers and the Muslms
• What's Next for Saudi Arabia?
• An Open Letter to President Asad
• The Suffering of Africa - Sins of Europe - Guilt of Israel
• What Drives Turkey?
• Engulfed by Fear
• The Syrian Crisis Spills Over into Lebanon
• The Frustrated Intellectual
• Syria, Iraq, the Gulf and the Iranian Tentacles
• The Failure of the Palestinian Venture
• Is Islam the Solution?
• Radical Islam in Africa
• What's Really Going on in Gaza?
• The Alternative Homeland
• The Real Thing
• The Division of Syria
• The Death Throes of the Lion
• An Old Governmental System in Formation
• Frustration and Extortion
• Thank You, Hamas
• Drums of War in the Gulf
• 2011: The Year of the Arab Winter
• And This is the Gate of Heaven
• In the Shadow of the Rising Islamic Crescent
• Who Stole My Revolution
• The Noose Tightens
• The Desert of Death
• Jihad Forever

Source: The article is published in the framework of the Center for the Study of the Middle East and Islam (under formation), Bar Ilan University, Israel. Also published in Makor Rishon, a Hebrew weekly newspaper.

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HRW: Jordan Turning Away Palestinian Refugees from Syria

by Ruth Eglash

Human Rights Watch report finds that Jordanian authorities have been singling out Syrians of Palestinian origin, sending them to holding facilities; reports of sharp spike in flow of refugees, 2,300 in one day.

Jordanian authorities have been turning away Syrian refugees of Palestinian heritage or threatening to deport those who have arrived in Jordan from Syria over the past year, according to a report released Wednesday by Human Rights Watch (HRW).

In addition, reports coming out of northern Jordan suggesting a sharp spike in the number of Syrians seeking refuge over the last few days, with more than 2300 arriving Tuesday, Arab media outlet Al-Jazeera reported Wednesday.

While local residents have been attempting to assist those who have already crossed the border, providing them with makeshift tents and other supplies, the Jordanian authorities are struggling to get a handle on this growing crisis.

“The situation in Syria is out of control,” a local analyst, who frequently assists HRW, told The Jerusalem Post in an interview Wednesday. “The crisis is becoming a religious, regional conflict and it does not seem like there will be a solution found anytime soon.”

Meanwhile, said the analyst, who preferred to remain anonymous, “Jordan must take in these refugees for humanitarian reasons even though we cannot afford to let them set up home permanently here because we just do not have the resources.”

He said that many of those arriving do not have official papers or identification, either because they left their homes in a hurry or because they destroyed them while escaping from Syria.

Another problem, he pointed out, is that many Jordanians, who married Syrians, including those with Palestinian backgrounds, are suddenly seeking Jordanian citizenship for spouses and that could eventually cause a demographic problem for Jordan. The population balance between Jordanians with Palestinian heritage and those without is a contentious issue in the Hashemite Kingdom.

According to the HRW report released Wednesday, since mid-April Jordanian authorities have been singling out Syrians of Palestinian origin, sending them to holding facilities in or around the town of Ramtha. In the meantime, other Syrian refugees have been allowed to move freely in Jordan if they have a local guarantor.

Official figures suggest that some 27,000 Syrian asylum seekers have been registered in Jordan since March 2011 but this does not include the hundreds of Palestinians who have fled Syria and have been registered by the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), the HRW report said.

“To its credit, Jordan has allowed tens of thousands of Syrians to cross its borders irregularly and move freely in Jordan, but it treats Palestinians fleeing the same way differently,” commented Gerry Simpson, senior refugee researcher and advocate for Human Rights Watch. “All those fleeing Syria – Syrians and Palestinians alike – have a right to seek asylum in Jordan, move freely in Jordan, and shouldn’t be forced back into a war zone.”

From mid-June 2012, the New York-based HRW interviewed more than a dozen Syrian-Palestinians now in Jordan. Although they had entered the country in a similar fashion to thousands of other Syrians, without passing through the official border crossing, these families were singled out and detained for months with no possibility of release. There were even some claims of individuals or families being forcibly returned to Syria.

Even though the report quoted Dr. Sa’d al-Wadi al-Manasir, the general secretary of Jordan’s Interior Ministry, as denying that any of the refugees had been sent back to Syria or that Syrians of Palestinian heritage had been singled out for different treatment, the organization interviewed more than a dozen Syrian-Palestinians who contradicted those claims.

One man, who crossed the border last March, said he was forced to cross back into Syria on two occasions and threatened with deportation. Eventually, he was allowed to stay but he told HRW: “They told me I couldn’t stay in Jordan and refused to say why. They drove me back to the barbed wire where I had crossed and forced me at gunpoint to cross back into Syria.”

The man reported walking only 15 meters into Syria but returning and then being taken back to the army’s barracks for interrogation. Another young man of Palestinian heritage, who crossed the border with his wife and two young children, also said that the family had also been driven back to the where they had crossed over and told they could not stay in Jordan.

“We could hear shooting on the other side of the border so I lay down in front of the car with my children and said we were not going back. My wife fainted. Then without any explanation, they put us back into the car and drove us to the [refugee] center in Beshabshe,” he told HRW.

Ruth Eglash

Source: http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=276261

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The Centrifuges Continue to Spin

by Boaz Bismuth

As part of its "Great Prophet 7" exercise on Tuesday Iran launched dozens of surface-to-surface missiles with ranges of up to 1,300 kilometers (807 miles) in efforts to prove just how far its weapons can go and that it possesses response capabilities. Iran is trying to prove its might not only with conventional missiles but with its potential nuclear capability as well. The objective of the missiles Iran showcased — for the benefit of the West and Israel in particular — is to bring Tehran to its goal of long-range nuclear capability.

On Sunday, a European embargo on Iranian oil exports went into effect. Tehran is trying to put on a "business-as-usual" façade, but the fact is that despite its denials, it has decreased its oil production, which constitutes a blow to the economy. Iran's oil minister Rostam Ghasemi claims that Iran has found alternative buyers for its oil, but, following in Europe's footsteps, India, South Korea and Japan have decided to trim their Iranian oil imports by 20 percent. Western diplomats have reported in recent months that the Iranian economy was ailing, and that it would only get worse from here.

But the ailing economy does not influence the centrifuges in Natanz and Fordo. The nuclear facilities do not stop, even during nuclear talks with the West. These talks have so far done nothing more than add stamps to participants' passports: Geneva, Vienna, Istanbul, Baghdad and Moscow have been the destinations over the last three years. Plenty of trips and meetings, but "no results" as was reported in the French weekly L'Express.

"[Russian President] Vladimir Putin has no interest in resolving the Iranian issue," one French diplomat involved in the talks was quoted as saying. Perhaps that is why after the latest round of talks between Iran and Western powers in Moscow, the world decided to stop lying to us about the talks' potential. "The talks have been productive" we were told after Istanbul (in March) and Baghdad (in May), but after Moscow they were finally called a "failure."

David Ignatius, a senior columnist for The Washington Post, believes that the technical nuclear talks held in Istanbul on Wednesday will fall apart. The gap between the two sides is too wide to be bridged. Iran has no intention of giving up uranium enrichment, or relocating its already enriched uranium to another country or decommissioning the nuclear facility in Fordo — the West's main demands.

This week, Iranian parliament members urged their government to take a stronger stance against the West, to punish the U.S. and its allies and to withdraw from the nuclear proliferation treaty, thus severing its cooperation with the IAEA. All of which, according to Ignatius, could expedite a possible U.S. military response.

On Tuesday it was reported that U.S. forces in the Persian Gulf were reinforced.The increased U.S. presence was one of the reason for Iran's missile show. What Iran didn't put on display, and no less dangerous, are the centrifuges that continue to spin. Because while we've been busy with our own internal affairs, this is what has been going on in Iran.

Boaz Bismuth

Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=2176

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Israelis Have a Legal Right to Settle all Judea and Samaria

by Edna Adato

Committee headed by retired Supreme Court justice, tasked with examining the legal status of outposts, concludes that international law does not preclude Israeli construction on land owned by the state • Committee declares that communities built with government assistance were implicitly authorized.

Retired Supreme Court Justice Edmond Levy, who heads a committee tasked with examining the legality of Jewish construction in Judea and Samaria, declared on Tuesday that Israelis have a legal right to settle the region.

"According to international law, Israelis have a legal right to settle all of Judea and Samaria, at the very least the lands that Israel controls under agreements with the Palestinian Authority," Levy stated. "Therefore, the establishment of Jewish settlements [in Judea and Samaria] is, in itself, not illegal."

The committee was established by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in efforts to determine and cement the legal status of the outposts in Judea and Samaria, with an emphasis on communities that were not built on privately owned Palestinian land but their status was still in doubt due to legal bureaucracy.

The committee issued its report on Tuesday, which was subsequently handed over to Attorney-General Yehuda Weinstein. In the report, Levy wrote that "upon completing the committee's tasks, and considering the testimonies heard, the basic conclusion is that from an international law perspective, the laws of 'occupation' do not apply to the unique historic and legal circumstances surrounding Israel's decades-long presence in Judea and Samaria."

"Likewise," the report said, "the Fourth Geneva Convention [relative to the Protection of Civilian Persons in Time of War] on the transfer of populations does not apply, and wasn't intended to apply to communities such as those established by Israel in Judea and Samaria."

In the part of the report that criticizes Israel's actions, the retired justice wrote that "dozens of new neighborhoods have been erected, without government authorization and at times without a contiguous link to the mother community. Several were built outside the legal jurisdiction allotted to the community. This prevalent phenomenon has required large amounts of funding therefore the committee finds it hard to believe that it was done without the government's knowledge."

In conclusion, the report stated that "we have discovered a phenomenon within the Israeli settlement enterprise in Judea and Samaria that does not befit a country that upholds the rule of law. From now on, it must be made very clear to the proponents of the settlement enterprise and to the political echelon that they are to operate only within the confines of the law, and the various law enforcement institutions must decisively enforce the law in the future."

The committee's recommendations include the following: The government must clarify its position on the issue of Israeli settlement in Judea and Samaria to prevent varying interpretations of its policy; a new community will only be built after the government or an authorized ministerial committee has approved it; the expansion of a community outside the bounds of its authorized jurisdiction must first be approved by the defense minister or a ministerial committee on settlements, in coordination with the prime minister.

On the other hand, the committee declared that the encouragement provided by the government to the settlement enterprise constituted authorization. According to the committee, communities that were built on land owned by the state, or privately owned Israeli land, with the help of government bodies could not be classified as "unauthorized" due to the absence of an official government decision to authorize them. The very assistance provided by the government in their establishment constitutes implicit authorization.

Under these circumstances, the report concluded, the evacuation of such communities would be impractical and another solution, such as compensation or land swap, should be implemented. Therefore, the committee recommends in its report, the government should avoid issuing demolition orders for these communities because it is the government itself that created this situation in the first place.

Another recommendation was that the government should speed up the examination of the communities whose status isn't defined. The committee suggested that the government define these disputed communities' status in terms of evacuations or demolitions only after a thorough investigation and a full legal proceeding. In order to ease the lives of the residents, the committee suggested the establishment of special courts in Judea and Samaria specifically to settle land disputes.

To prevent uncertainty and to promote stability, the committee encouraged Israelis and Palestinians to record their land purchases within an agreed upon time frame of between four and five years, after which anyone who did not complete the process would lose rights to property. The committee further proposed that Israelis would only be allowed to purchase land in Judea and Samaria under the auspices of an authorized body.

Edna Adato

Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_article.php?id=4945

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Iraq is Blowing Up

by Max Boot

I take no joy from being proven right, but it appears that I–and other advocates of a continued American military presence in Iraq–were right to warn of the dangers of withdrawal. The Associated Press reports from Baghdad:

June was the second-deadliest month since U.S. troops withdrew from Iraq in mid-December as insurgents exploited the political struggles between the country’s ethnic and sectarian factions. More significant than the numbers was the fact that insurgents appeared able to sustain the level of violence over a longer period than usual. There was a major deadly bombing or shooting rampage almost every three days, many targeting Shiite pilgrims.

The violence has brought the weakness of Iraq’s security apparatus into sharp focus even as deepening political divisions dim the prospects that the country will emerge as a stable democracy after decades of war and dictatorship.

Indeed, 50 more Iraqis died on Tuesday in a fresh round of bombings.

Not all is gloom and doom to be sure. The New York Times reports, for example, on the opening of new Western-style shopping malls in Baghdad. But with violence levels rising and with Prime Minister Maliki increasingly accumulating dictatorial powers–the two trends are related because the more the political system breaks down, the more likely it is that various parties will resort to violence–the outlook for Iraq is a good deal less bright than it was a year ago when it appeared likely there would be a residual American troop presence past 2011.

Max Boot

Source: http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2012/07/03/iraq-is-blowing-up/

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Prescription for Geopolitical Disaster

by Max Boot

We interrupt our commentary on the looming defense sequestration–which Defense Secretary Leon Panetta has called a potential “disaster”–to note that our most stalwart ally, Great Britain, is also hollowing out its armed forces.

The honorary colonel of the Royal Regiment of Fusiliers, which is set to lose a battalion as part of the continuing downsizing, has written a letter to the chief of the general staff blasting the decision: “If challenged or scrutinized by, for example the media, it cannot be presented as the best or most sensible military option.” In all, five British infantry battalions are being eliminated, with the loss of 12,000 soldiers.

This is part of a bigger drawdown ordered by the Cameron government, which as the Wall Street Journal noted last year, means that “the number of personnel will fall around 10 percent, and about 40 percent of tanks will be retired and the country will lose its aircraft carriers, leaving it with no carrier-strike capability for almost 10 years, until a new carrier comes into service.”

Why should this be of concern to Americans? Because Britain is one of the few allies we can count on in a crunch. In the future, however, even if it wants to fight alongside our forces, it will have scant capability to do so. We will be increasingly on our own in the world–at the very time when our own resources are in rapid decline. This is a prescription for geopolitical disaster.

Max Boot

Source: http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2012/07/03/prescription-for-geopolitical-disaster/

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Israel Takes Out Strategic Insurance Against any Egyptian Threat to its Global Shipping Lanes

by Leo Rennert

Israel and China have signed an agreement to build a railway connecting Israel's southernmost port of Eilat with its Mediterranean ports at Ashdod and Haifa.

The joint multi-billion dollar project will give commercial shipping a ready detour around the Suez canal for vessels heading from the Med to major sea lanes in the Indian Ocean and to ports of call in eastern Africa and southern Asia. And vice versa.

However, there's more to the joint venture than mutual commercial interests, important as they are - China, an emerging world power, wants to expand global trade routes; Israel, with its booming high-tech sector, has similar objectives.

For Israel, the strategic value of this railway project may be even more important than its commercial benefits. In one stroke, it gives Israel a direct link for cargos headed to Eilat from the Indian Ocean via the Red Sea and thence to the Gulf of Aqaba and then, via the new railway, on to Europe, northern Africa and beyond via Ashdod and Haifa. The Suez canal is taken out of the picture should Egypt -- now ruled by the Muslim Brotherhood -- entertain notions of blockading Israeli shipping.

Which, strategically speaking, is not a threat to be taken lightly. The 1967 war between Israel and Egypt was triggered in part by President Nasser's blockade against Israeli shipping via the Straits of Tiran -- a vital seaway between the Gulf of Aqaba and the Red. Sea. Later, the 1979 peace treaty between the two countries was drafted so as to stipulate that the Straits of Tiran are international waters open to one and all.

Israel's minister of transport Yisrael Katz headed a 12-member delegation that traveled to Beijing for the signing ceremony. Part of the 20 billion shekel tab would be assumed by the China Development Industrial Bank -- with Israel heading the operational side. Chinese companies expect to win most of the construction projects.

Prime Minister Netanyahu declared the planned railway a national priority project. The 180-kilometer line is expected to cut travel time between Tel Aviv and Eilat to two hours -- a new catalyst for development of the Negev, which along with the Galilee is expected to become an increasing focus for economic and population growth for Israel in coming years.

But the strategic element stands out, as Israel puts more weight on security in a turbulent region -- made even more turbulent and uncertain by ominous results stemming from the "Arab spring."

As Dr. Aaron Lerner, director of Independent Media Review Analysis, puts it: "What country in the region would have the chutzpa to interfere with the operation of a transportation system with a Chinese government connection?

In Beijing, a special dinner given by the Chinese government for the signing ceremony, the food was kosher -- in deference to Shaul Bitterman, who represents Chinese companies in Israel. Bitterman is an Orthodox Jew. A nice symbolic touch to the growing Chinese-Israeli partnership

Leo Rennert is a former White House correspondent and Washington bureau chief of McClatchy Newspapers.

Source: http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2012/07/israel_takes_out_strategic_insurance_against_any_egyptian_threat_to_its_global_shipping_lanes.html

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Arab Sudan Feels the Pain of Oil Embargo

by Stephen Brown

While oil-producing Arab countries have used the oil weapon to threaten and impose their will on other states, such as the West during the 1973 Arab-Israeli War, Arab Sudan is discovering what it is like to be on the other end of the gun.

A dramatic drop in revenues caused by an oil embargo placed by South Sudan against its northern neighbor has resulted in demonstrators taking to the streets the past two weeks in Khartoum, Sudan’s capital, to protest the skyrocketing rise in living costs. Due to substantial revenue loss, the Khartoum government was forced to cut subsidies for basic commodities like fuel and sugar to save “the country’s ailing economy from collapse due to a budget deficit of $2.4 billion US dollars.”

And while hundreds of protesters have been arrested in Khartoum, the demonstrations are reported to be spreading to regional centers. The latest wave of anti-regime protests occurred last Friday after prayer at the mosques. The police used “tear gas, batons and rubber bullets” to brutally break up the demonstrators, some of whom were arrested. One activist group claims nearly 1,000 Sudanese have been detained by the security forces following the street unrest that began June 16 and show no signs of abating.

“The heavy-handed approach adopted by Sudanese security forces is disproportionate and deeply concerning,” commented State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland in a June 26 statement, and calls for “the immediate release of those detained for peaceful protest.”

The wave of demonstrations and economic problems facing the government of Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir, who is wanted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes in Darfur, are largely of its own making. South Sudan, the country responsible for the damaging embargo, was carved out of Sudan a year ago, becoming the world’s newest nation, after decades of devastating civil war with Khartoum. Sudan is mostly Arab and Islamic. It tried to Arabize and Islamicize by force the largely animist and Christian black African south and even declared jihad against its fellow southern citizens in 1989 to accomplish this unwanted goal.

About two million people died in the ensuing, horrific conflict, mostly in the south, while millions of black African southerners became refugees. Besides religious hatred, the African southern Sudanese were also victims of northern Arab racism that saw tens of thousands of their number “legally” enslaved.Sudan, along with Pakistan and Iran, are Islamic states and slavery is legal under the sharia law code that rules their societies. One former black southern Sudanese slave, Francis Bok, a Dinka who was captured at age seven in an Arab slave raid and served a brutal Sudanese Arab master for ten years as an animal herder, told his story here in FrontPage Magazine of his years of slavery and escape to freedom to the United States.

The conflict between north and south actually began almost immediately after Sudan became independent in 1956. The first phase of the war lasted until 1972 when a truce was declared. War started up again in 1982 and continued until 2005 when the George Bush-sponsored Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) ended hostilities and led to the creation of South Sudan. But the CPA did not see the end of conflict in Sudan as Khartoum also had begun a brutal war in Darfur. Sudan is still waging war against its other black African citizens in Darfur and the Nuba Mountains, conflicts that have caused further tens of thousands of deaths and millions of refugees and earned it the nickname “the warfare state.”

However, when South Sudan became independent in a blaze of colorful celebration in 2011, it took 75 percent of the country’s oil with it. But the landlocked nation had no choice but to continue to ship its oil through its former tormenter’s territory to Sudan’s port on the Red Sea for sale to customers abroad. What caused South Sudan’s new president, Salva Kiir, to cut off the oil, however, is that his government believed Sudan’s transit fee was, at $36 per barrel, ridiculously high.

“Khartoum was asking $36 per drum, which is very unusual and not practicable,” said Anne Itto, Deputy Secretary of South Sudan’s ruling Sudan People’s Liberation Movement party (SPLM). “If South Sudan ever accepts to pay such rent, it is like giving our oil away, as well.”

Another factor that contributed to South Sudan’s decision to embargo the north was that the Kiir government, based in its new capital of Juba, believed Khartoum was stealing oil from the pipeline for its own use. Khartoum’s economic war against the new state also involved reneging on a currency agreement when the two countries split. Sudan was supposed to wait six months to introduce a new currency but did so within a month, which left South Sudan with $700 million of the old currency, the Sudanese pound, which it could not convert.

Juba’s oil embargo on Sudan has also hit its own economy hard, depriving it of 98 percent of its income. But it is determined to stick to its guns and not be subjected to any more of Khartoum’s shoddy treatment. It appears South Sudan is planning to build its own oil pipeline to the Kenyan port of Lamu, avoiding the northern route altogether. Lamu is undergoing reconstruction for this purpose. The Japanese corporation Toyota has said it has developed a plan for the Kenyan pipeline, and a Japanese army engineering unit has arrived in South Sudan to build roads and for other humanitarian projects.

Since independence, South Sudan has built strong relationships with its black African neighbors Kenya, Uganda and Ethiopia. And it should continue to do so, since a speech ICC-wanted war criminal Omar al-Bashir made last April at a rally indicates he has learned nothing after losing half of his country and remains unrelenting in his hostility towards South Sudan. Bashir virtually declared war on South Sudan when he said: “Either we end up in Juba and take everything or you end up in Khartoum and take everything.”

Sudan also recently would not accept the African Union roadmap for peace with South Sudan at ongoing negotiations in Ethiopia. No major issues, such as border security, could be agreed upon. The border between the two countries continues to be a war zone where conflict could break out at any time. Sudan has also continued its bombing raids on South Sudan and has ethnically cleansed the Abyei border region of about 100,000 Dinka tribesmen who have only now cautiously begun to return home.

In the face of such statements, hostility and military aggression, it appears that, like with the Palestinians, one can “peace process” with the Sudanese all one wants, but peace will never arrive, since they don’t want it. So in the end, if the demonstrations in Sudan grow and spread, South Sudan should not end its embargo, even if an agreement can be reached, since its oil weapon could be the deciding factor in making Bashir vulnerable to a regime change, which would only benefit everyone in the region.

Stephen Brown

Source: http://frontpagemag.com/2012/stephenbrown/arab-sudan-feels-the-pain-of-oil-embargo/

Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.

The Last Chance to Stop Iran’s Nuclear Quest?

by Ryan Mauro

The European Union’s embargo on Iranian oil went into effect on Sunday, July 1. Other countries cut back their imports. The regime admits it’s feeling the sting but is boisterously defiant. These sanctions are the toughest yet but they will only succeed in stopping Iran’s nuclear program if the regime’s very existence is threatened. The key question now is whether it is too late for sanctions to work.

The pain caused by these sanctions should not be dismissed. Estimates vary as to how much of the regime’s revenue comes from oil exports, with some saying its 50% and others putting it as high as 85%. No matter what the truth is, the Iranian economy was a shambles before these sanctions began. In 2010, the regime had to cut funding to Hezbollah by about 40% because of financial restraints. Plus, rising domestic consumption takes away from Iran’s oil exports more and more each year. Some studies forecast that Iran would have to cease all oil exports in order to accommodate its own oil needs by 2015.

Iran’s exports began collapsing immediately after the U.S. began planning sanctions on foreign companies involved in the regime’s oil trade. The regime is suffering from a 40% decline in oil exports already. Iran has already lost at least $10 billion as its output is at its lowest level in 20 years. Inflation is above 20% and the Iranian people are, unfortunately, under tremendous stress. “Little by little, even fruit is becoming a luxury,” said one shopkeeper in Tehran.

The Obama Administration is being criticized for issuing exemptions from sanctions to Iran’s top 20 oil buyers. However, in fairness, the “stick” of possible sanctions and “carrot” of possible exemptions forced these countries to reduce their purchases.

Japan received an exemption for cutting back its Iranian oil imports by 15-22%. Singapore, which only gets about 1% of its oil from Iran, was exempted but its imports are on a “very sharp downward trend.” Turkey’s state-owned oil company, Tupras, reduced imports in May by 20%. The remaining buyers of Iranian oil are likely to sense this dependency and, with the strong hand at the negotiating table, demand price cuts.

This approach was less successful with China, India and South Korea. China, for example, cut its oil imports from Iran by about 50% earlier this year over a dispute over prices. Its level of imports has gone back to normal in the past three months. The six-month exemption means that China will be buying about 500,000 barrels of oil from Iran every single day until then. India only cut its imports by 11%. South Korea originally said it would end all imports of Iranian oil on July 1 because it couldn’t get insurance for its tankers. Iran is offering to use its own tankers to transport the supply and South Korea is considering it.

There are other loopholes in the sanctions. For example, Genesis Assets Managers, which invests in a company with a portfolio entirely based on business with Iran, has escaped punishment. The Iranian Bonyads pose a bigger problem, as the Money Jihad blog explains. These are tax-exempt charities partially owned by the regime that are under the direct supervision of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. They control 20-40% of Iran’s entire GDP but are off-limits from sanctions because of their charitable work. There is no transparency and donations made to them, either in the form of goods or in cash, sustain the regime and could be easily diverted to paying its security services, sponsoring terrorism or its WMD programs.

Iran is trying to display strength. It boasts that it has $150 billion in foreign reserves and is earning revenue from increased exports of electricity to Turkey and Iraq. The Tehran Times reports that the price of oil rose 9% because of the embargo, but the India Times says oil prices actually dropped on July 2.

One concern is how Iran will react to the embargo. The regime needs major oil revenue. If it must sell less, then it needs to get a higher price per barrel. Iran must also hope that higher oil prices will pressure countries to reverse course and increase their imports again. One way to do this is through conflict. A terrorist strike on Saudi oil fields, for example, would accomplish this. The Saudis and the United Arab Emirates paved the way for the sanctions by increasing their output and Iran clearly threatened them in return.

The Iranians should be expected to strike at the Arab countries and perhaps even in the West. The Iranian parliament is now discussing legislation authorizing the regime to intercept any oil tanker transiting the Strait of Hormuz from a country taking part in the sanctions. The Saudis have prepared for this scenario by reviving an old pipeline so they can sell oil through the Red Sea if necessary.

Confrontation is on the way, not only because it is in the regime’s nature, but because it needs it.

Ryan Mauro

Source: http://frontpagemag.com/2012/ryan-mauro/the-last-chance-to-stop-iran%E2%80%99s-nuclear-quest/

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Radical Islam Spreading in Spain

by Soeren Kern

The report, which examines some of the main Islamist groups operating in Spain, shows that the common thread linking all the groups together is their mutual desire to establish an Islamic Caliphate.

Two Islamists have been arrested in Spain on charges of torturing and murdering two fellow Muslims for "abandoning radical Islam."

The arrests came just days after Spanish newspapers reported that jihadists in Spain are travelling to Syria to help overthrow the government there.

Spanish authorities say the incidents -- on top of many others in recent months -- point to the accelerating spread in the country of radical Salafi Islam, which Spain's National Intelligence Center, the CNI, in a leaked secret report -- corroborated by the Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies, an organization tied to the Spanish Ministry of Defense, in its own recently published a 43-page report entitled, "Islamist Movements in Spain" -- states is increasingly posing the greatest threat to national security.

Rachid Mohamed Abdellah and Nabil Mohamed Chaib, both of whom are Spanish citizens of Moroccan origin, were jailed after being questioned by Judge Eloy Velasco at the National Court (Audiencia Nacional) in Madrid on June 28.

Police say the two men, aged 25 and 30 respectively, are members of an Islamist cell based in the city of Melilla, a Spanish exclave on the northern coast of Morocco. They are accused of torturing and murdering two other members of the cell who "adopted Western behavior and tried to disengage from radical Islam." Spanish authorities say the murders were meted out according to Islamic Sharia law, which calls for the killing of "infidels."

Spanish Interior Minister Jorge Fernández Díaz said the suspects are "capable of carrying out especially brutal attacks," and share "the same radical orthodoxy" of the Islamists who carried out the March 2004 Madrid train bombings in which 191 people were killed and 1,800 wounded.

At a news conference following the arrests, the Director General of Spanish Police, Ignacio Cosidó, said: "They were part of an extremely radical group, and had committed a double murder of two members of their own organization who had shown signs of wanting to leave. Their ideology is clearly jihadi and they believe in terrorism as a means to achieve their objectives. Therefore, they posed a threat of the highest order."

Abdellah and Chaib were arrested Melilla neighborhood of Cañada de Hidum after an extended confrontation with police, who, pelted with rocks and bottles by local Muslims, were forced to call for reinforcements.

Spanish police further state that the cell was composed mainly of Spanish citizens of North African origin living in Melilla, and Moroccans living in Farkhana, Morocco. The suspects were engaged in recruiting and indoctrinating Muslim youths for training in jihadist camps or war zones in places such as Afghanistan. The cell was notable for its secrecy and for the adoption of strong internal security measures aimed at keeping its activities clandestine.

Members of the cell were forced to live a life of submission to the Takfiri branch of Islam, a violent offshoot of fundamentalist Saudi Salafism, that seeks to establish an Islamic Caliphate [empire] in the Middle East and large parts of Europe. Among other beliefs, Takfiris consider violence to be a legitimate method to achieve their religious and political goals.

The arrests come just days after the Madrid-based newspaper El País reported that jihadists from Ceuta, another Spanish exclave in northern Morocco, have been travelling to Syria to help overthrow the regime of Bashar Assad. The report states that one of the jihadists, a 33-year-old taxi driver, Rachid Wahbi, was killed just days after arriving in Syria.

Spanish police say the jihadists, many of whom are Spanish citizens, have been travelling from Ceuta to Málaga and then on to Madrid, from where they board flights to Istanbul. Once in Turkey, they make contact with jihadists who facilitate their entry into Syria.

Police believe the jihadists from Ceuta involve Takfiris who, in the Los Caracolas district of the city, attend a mosque considered the most radical of the 33 mosques in Ceuta because of its links to Salafism. Spanish police say the jihadists also meet regularly in homes in the Condesa neighborhood of Ceuta, where they watch videos on jihad.

Separately, nine Islamists accused of planning terrorist attacks aimed at "liberating" Spain for Islam were found not guilty by the National Court in Madrid in April 2012.

Spanish public prosecutors had said the men -- Salafi-Jihadists who belonged to an Islamist cell known as the "Army of the Messiah" (Ansar al-Mahdi) -- sought to "free" the cities of Ceuta and Melilla from Spanish rule to begin the Islamic re-conquest of Spain.

Spanish prosecutors said the jihadist cell operated out of the Darkawia mosque in the El Príncipe Alfonso neighborhood of Ceuta. The ringleader of the group, a Moroccan imam named Mohammed Abdessalam, was alleged by prosecutors to have "preached the most extreme version of Islam."

Prosecutors said the jihadists had been plotting a series of bombings in Ceuta -- in the city's main port, in churches and in other infrastructure.

In its ruling, however, the court said that although prosecutors proved that the Islamists were "jihadists who worshiped martyrdom," there was a lack of incontrovertible proof that the men were "planning to attack Spanish interests." The ruling added: "Terrorism is more than the expression of radical ideas. Freedom of expression and dissemination of ideas, thoughts or doctrines is a feature of the democratic system which we must protect even for those who disagree and advocate changing it."

The ruling came on the heels of the CNI's leaked secret report, which warned of "alarming symptoms" of the presence in Spain of members and cells of the Islamist group Takfir wal-Hijra, which subscribes to the "most radical and violent version of Salafi-Jihadism."

Takfir wal-Hijra doctrine promotes "jihad without rules" by condoning non-Muslim practices, such as drinking alcohol and drug trafficking, as a cover for extremist activities. According to CNI, the group aspires to subjugate the entire planet under a "global caliphate ruled exclusively by Islamic Sharia law." Members of the group are now firmly established in Barcelona, Madrid, Málaga and Valencia, among other Spanish cities.

The CNI document further states that police have detected Takfir activities in four mosques in Barcelona and two mosques in Valencia. The mosques are "led by radical imams from Algeria and Morocco," and are centers for "proselytization and recruitment of new members using religious instruction as a decoy."

The report of the Spanish Ministry of Defense examines some of the main Islamist groups operating in Spain, such as Takfir wal-Hijra, Tablighi Jamaat, and the Muslim Brotherhood, Justice and Charity from Morocco, concludes that radical Islam is on the rise in Spain. It also shows that the common thread linking all the groups together is their mutual desire to establish an Islamic Caliphate.

The document also states: "The wide range of freedoms in countries like Spain, such as the freedom of expression and association, and the extensive judicial protections, paradoxically represent an advantage for Islamist movements to disseminate messages opposed to democracy or messages that promote radicalization…Jihadist groups can disseminate a range of principles contrary to our democratic and constitutional values, or contrary to the integration into the society of residence, in addition to implementing feelings of marginalization or victimization, that could serve as a breeding ground for jihadist recruitment."

A recent survey conducted by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior provides additional insights into the beliefs of Muslims in Spain. Entitled "Values, Attitudes and Opinions of Muslim Immigrants," the report shows that more than half the Muslims in Spain consider themselves to be "very religious." Only 12% say they are non-practicing.

More than 80% are opposed to banning the burka and only 39% say they are opposed to establishment of Islamic Sharia law courts in Spain. More than 60% of those surveyed say they obey instructions from the imams at their local mosques.

In March, Spanish authorities arrested a radical Islamic preacher for calling on Muslims to use physical and psychological violence to "discipline" errant wives who refuse to submit to Islamic Sharia law or obey their husbands.

Spanish public prosecutors say Abdeslam Laaroussi, a charismatic imam from Morocco who preaches at a large mosque in Terrassa, an industrial city 30 kilometers north of Barcelona, is guilty of "incitement to violence against women" for "providing concrete examples of the manner in which wives should be beaten, how to isolate them inside the family home and how to deny them sexual relations," the last of which would not appear to require extensive instruction.

Police say witnesses provided them with recordings of sermons Laaroussi preached in downtown Terrassa at the Badr Mosque,where more than 1,500 people attend prayers services each Friday, and where he instructed his listeners to "hit women with the use of a stick, the fist or the hand so that no bones are broken and no blood is drawn."

Laaroussi has refused to cooperate with police or provide evidence: he says he does not recognize the legitimacy of the Spanish state.

Soeren Kern is Senior Fellow for European Politics at the Madrid-based Grupo de Estudios Estratégicos / Strategic Studies Group. Follow him on Facebook.

Source: http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/3140/radical-islam-spain

Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.