by Yoram Ettinger
President Obama's March
2013 visit to the Middle East, including Israel, could signal a
significant policy-change from his June 2009 visit, which excluded
Israel. On the other hand, the introduction of the John Kerry (State
Department) — Chuck Hagel (Pentagon) — John Brennan (CIA) team of "Palestine Firsters" may suggest that the March visit could merely be a tactical-change in pursuit of the same policy.
The 2009 visit was
driven by an assumption that a newly-elected charismatic U.S. President
could turnaround the U.S. economy and reform U.S. healthcare, while
simultaneously implementing U.N.-like multilateralism, lowering the U.S.
unilateral profile, transforming the world from confrontation to
engagement, mollifying the Muslim World, coax Iran into abandoning its
megalomaniac aspirations and resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict. The 2009
visit reflected a worldview focusing on the Palestinian issue as the,
supposed, core cause of Middle East turbulence, the crown jewel of
Islamic policy-making, an essential link in forging an anti-Iran Arab
coalition and the crux of the Arab-Israeli conflict. Israel was
perceived as a secondary ally, at best, and a burden, at worst.
However, the Middle
East has defied Obama's assumptions and worldview. None of Obama's
Middle East goals were achieved, highlighting the increasingly violent
and unpredictable anti-U.S. Islamic Street,
totally independent of the Palestinian issue. The tumultuous Islamic
Winter — from the Atlantic Ocean to the Persian Gulf — has further
accentuated Israel as the only stable, predictable, commercially and
militarily capable, innovative, democratic and unconditional ally of the
U.S.
The March 2013 visit to
Israel will take place as the threats to critical U.S. interests —
which are endangering the entire Free World — are intensifying daily.
The Iranian nuclear sand clockis running out, causing panic among U.S. Arab allies, exposing the futility of diplomacyand
sanctions. The lava on the Islamic Street threatens to sweep Jordan,
Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and additional members of the dwindling
club of pro-U.S. Arab regimes, ridiculing the "Arab Springers." Iraq is
disintegrating, becoming an Iranian subsidiary and an arena for global
terrorism, rather than an island of free election, mocking the delusion
of Arab democracy. Egypt has been transformed from a pro-U.S. outpost
into a chief catalyst of the anti-Western transnational Muslim
Brotherhood revolution. In contrast with the "Palestine Firsters," Arab
leaders are preoccupied with their tectonic homefront and the lethal
Iranian threat, not with the Palestinian issue, which has never been
their top concern, irrespective of their rhetoric.
The March 2013 visit to
Israel will take place at a time when the stormy Arab Winter clarifies
that the win-win U.S.-Israel strategic cooperation does not evolve
around the Palestinian issue, but around mutual regional and global
threats. Thus, while the threats to U.S. targets on the mainland and
abroad are mounting and U.S. power-projection is declining, Israel
emerges as the only effective battle-tested allywhich can pull the hottest chestnuts out of the fire, for the U.S., without American boots on the ground.
In the face of dramatic
threats in 2013, President Obama could facilitate a dramatic
enhancement of the mutually-beneficial bilateral strategic cooperation.
For example, the upgrading of Israel's port of Ashdod into a home port
for the Sixth Fleet; the relocation of advance aircraft, missiles, tanks
and counterterrorism systems, from Europe to Israel, for U.S. use in
case of emergencies in Jordan and the Gulf area. U.S. focus on mutual
threats, rather than on the Palestinian issue, would reassure Riyadh and
deter Tehran.
The March 2013 visit
follows the Jan. 22, 2013 Israeli election, which was dominated by "It's
the economy, stupid!" The Israeli constituent is skepticalabout
the "peace process" and the land-for-peace formula; does not trust
Mahmoud Abbas; and is weary of further "painful concessions." The only
national security challenge which concerns most Israelis is the Iranian
nuclear threat.
In 1981, President
Reagan pressured Prime Minister Menachem Begin brutally against bombing
Iraq's nuclear reactor, lest it trigger a regional war. Israel defied
the U.S., which thanked Israel following the 1991 Gulf War "for sparing
the U.S. a nuclear confrontation." Will President Obama attempt to
handcuff Israel, or will he leverage Israel's experienced hands to spare
the U.S. and the Free World devastating consequences?!
President Obama may
decide to ignore Middle East reality, subordinate U.S.-Israel relations
to the Palestinian issue, and pressure/entice Israel into further
concessions. He should note the negative results of U.S. pressure on
Israel. For example, Israel's unprecedented November, 2009 ten-month
construction freeze in eastern Jerusalem, Judea and Samaria radicalized
Mahmoud Abbas' position. Israel's unprecedented concessions at Camp
David, in July, 2000, triggered the Second Intifada's unprecedented wave
of terrorism. The U.S. pressure to allow Hamas' participation in the
Jan. 2006 election resulted in two wars in Gaza. According to Max
Fisher's 1992 biography, "Quiet Diplomat,"
President Eisenhower admitted that "I should have never pressured
Israel to evacuate the Sinai," which fueled President Nasser's
anti-American radicalism.
Yoram Ettinger
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=3407
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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