by Dan Margalit
Any visit by an
American president to the Middle East is a very important diplomatic
event. Such visits are carefully orchestrated and are intended to send
international messages, even if not explicitly. This is certainly the
case with U.S. President Barack Obama's upcoming visit to the region.
Four years ago, Obama visited the Middle East and was satisfied with
giving an ill-conceived speech in Cairo, without bothering to land in
Israel.
One of the aspects of
Obama's planned trip is the impact it will have on Israeli coalition
talks. The White House is aware of the arithmetic difficulties that
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces in forming the next coalition
and is closely monitoring Netanyahu's priorities.
Talk about Obama's
upcoming visit will boost those favoring the renewal of negotiations
between Israel and the Palestinians. It is reasonable to assume that
Obama would not have agreed to come to Jerusalem and Ramallah without
securing promises of at least a rhetorical return to the negotiating
table.
The Americans believe
that Netanyahu would not want to greet Obama with a coalition of only
Shas, Habayit Hayehudi and Kadima (with United Torah Judaism supporting
the government from outside). In this regard, the announcement of
Obama's visit at this time is meant to encourage Likud-Beytenu to have
someone from the Center-Left in the coalition when the American
president comes to town.
In some ways, Obama's
upcoming visit strengthens Yesh Atid and Hatnuah in their coalition
talks with Likud-Beytenu on the issue of setting a diplomatic agenda
that includes the resumption of negotiations with Palestinian Authority
President Mahmoud Abbas. But this issue has not been a major bone of
contention in the coalition talks, as Netanyahu knows there will be a
need to repeat the familiar refrain "two states for two peoples" when
the U.S. ups its pressure during Obama's second term.
Obama wants to visit
Israel after the formation of the next government. In the wrestling
match of coalition talks, an idea was raised on Tuesday night that I
first presented in a column the day after the election, which is that
the coalition should be formed in two stages. In the first stage,
Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid would give Netanyahu the narrow majority
required to pass an equitable enlistment law and also perhaps the next
state budget. After this, Shas would join the government and receive
ministerial portfolios that had been promised to it in advance and held
in reserve.
The multi-stage
establishment of a coalition has been a legitimate political technique
since Menachem Begin first used it 35 years ago. The option remains on
the table.
Dan Margalit
Source:http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=3389
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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