by Barry Rubin
Secretary Kerry Meets With Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu (June 27, 2013).
War without end. That is what the
Obama Administration promises the U.S., Israel, and the Palestinians. If
the current Obama-Kerry plan for an Israel-Palestinian deal is
implemented, scores of Americans would likely die. This was revealed
recently by Secretary of State John Kerry, particularly in a speech at
the Saban Forum.
By the way, the Saban Forum Speech was made appropriately on December 7th,
the anniversary of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor. The former head
of the Saban Center has also been chosen as negotiator.
The Obama Administration plan is very simple, assuming that everything goes smoothly–which of course it will not.
According to the plan, the United
States would gradually create and maintain the agreement by policing an
independent Palestinian state. Israel would be protected by the U.S.
forces, and Palestine would be protected from Israel by them. And that’s
part of the problem, because the Palestinians would stage a huge number
of protests against and complaints regarding Israel’s actions, likely
demanding more concessions.
In addition, the Palestinians,
particularly Hamas, would see the new Palestinian state as perpetually
victimized. They would mobilize any Arab forces they could to back their
complaints. It would be a nightmare. But what the wrong-headed people
in the Obama Administration do not understand is that they would be
under constant challenge. They do not understand that no matter what
they say, Hamas, Fatah, Iran, Syria, al-Qa’ida, the Muslim Brotherhood,
and the Salafists –and most likely Saudi Arabia–will never accept an
Israeli state.
In other words, if Americans are on
the ground, they will be targeted. Now the question is what will they
do? Will they “protect” Israel? And what is the definition of protecting
Israel? If Palestinians ignore that they are attackers, then it is a
controversy. Israel does not deserve “protection.” And what about gaps
in this protection or disagreement among the observers?
In his Saban speech, Kerry said, “…Our
commitment to Israel’s security spurred the U.S.-Israeli development of
ballistic missile defense technologies to keep Israelis safe from
rockets and missiles. Those systems and newer technologies continue to
protect Israelis from the range of threats that they still face today.”
What about a large stream of
cross-border attacks? Will Americans attack Palestinians if they violate
the agreement? May I point out that at various times Iraqi, Hamas, and
Hizballah rockets have landed on Israel with no U.S. defensive action.
Again, the most important point is not Iranian nuclear weapons but
routine policing of a Palestinian state, not to mention Israel’s
Lebanon-Syria border.
Are we to believe that American
helicopters, airplanes, and ground soldiers would attack when the whole
effort of this exercise had been to avoid military commitments? How many
years would this neo-mandate continue? Will the United States
intimidate certain countries if necessary? Remember that the United
States didn’t even support the military government in Egypt. So will it
defend Egypt in the Sinai, which is in cooperation with Israel?
The United States may suffer a great
number of casualties over time. Note the 3,400 deaths of Western
coalition soldiers in Afghanistan so far. Are Western forces willing to
sacrifice more than 300 soldiers a year? In 2010, IED attacks in
Afghanistan wounded 3,366 U.S. soldiers. And that was in just one year
of the war.
And of course Americans are going to
accidently kill Palestinians, both fighters and unarmed civilians. As of
February 2013, between 17,000 and 19,000 civilians died in Afghanistan.
This then would create a blood-feud. And by the way, many of these
people will blame Israel.
Think along the lines of Afghanistan.
The U.S. has informed President Karzai that it is withdrawing its
forces. Karzai is not happy with that, and he wants to reject the deal.
Again, can Israel rely on American defense even if it accepts it?
Recently, the United States has
betrayed the following countries; Egypt (wanting to support a Muslim
Brotherhood government); Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey (supporting
their side in the Syrian civil war). And it has left a mess in Iraq. Do
you think at this moment Israel is going to trust the United States at
the peak of distrust in modern times? Consider this too, what will
happen when the U.S. soldiers come back in body bags? How long will the
U.S. commitment last before dumping an independent Palestinian State on
Israel? How long will the American people accept photos of dead
Palestinians, much less dead Israelis?
Remember clearly that there will be
Turks, Iranians, Arabs, Islamists, and Palestinians who will not to
accept the solution or who will continue fighting. And sooner or later,
the United States would leave the new state and leave Israel with a
mess.
Since this will cost a great number of
American fatalities; money, conflicts of agreement, interpretation, and
prestige in the Middle-East; and constant American interventions, such a
solution will not work. I cannot conceive that people do not look
forward in this way and rather seem to be guided by wishful thinking
that the conflict will end suddenly.
It is no accident that Israel has
never been willing to trust its security to a third party. This is a
roadmap for increased conflict.
For example, is the U.S. air force
going to bomb a building in Gaza that is an open headquarter for Gaza
rocket and terrorist attacks? Will it aggressively go after foreign
fighters, even if those foreign fighters have attacked Americans? Will
it send them to Guantanamo Bay? Will it respond to criticism in the UN?
May I point out that U.S. counterterrorism policy has not been very
aggressive of late.
Think about Benghazi.
The United States will then have two choices:
- The U.S. helps Israel, albeit with constant opposition, and alienates the Arab and Iranian and Turkish world.
- The United States will gradually get tired of the burden and walk away from it.
In other words, Israel would not benefit from what can only be called “ObamaStrategicCare.”
If you like it, no matter what you’ve
heard, you can keep your strategic patron or plan, you can keep your
ally (Obama), and you’ll save money. No one will be able to take that
away from you.
Barry Rubin
Source: http://www.gloria-center.org/2013/12/arab-israeli-conflict-the-neo-mandate-solution/
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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