by Emil Avdaliani
Over the past several years, the world has watched Russia prop up its position in Syria, Venezuela, and other locales. Less attention has been paid to Moscow’s ambitions on the vast African continent.
 |
| Vladimir Putin at the Cape of Good Hope, South Africa, photo via Office of the President of Russia |
BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 1,223, July 10, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Both China and Russia have increased their influence on the African
continent through money, diplomacy, and other measures – efforts that
go directly against US interests. Washington has paid little attention
to Africa and will find it difficult to compete with Moscow and Beijing,
particularly as other geopolitical theaters require its immediate
attention.
Over the past several years, the world has watched
Russia prop up its position in Syria, Venezuela, and other locales.
Less attention has been paid to Moscow’s ambitions on the vast African
continent.
Russia recently won over the Central African
Republic (CAR), a country strategically located between the Muslim north
and Christian south. Beyond the advantage of its geographical location,
CAR possesses sizeable stores of oil, diamonds, gold, and uranium
resources.
The US largely disregarded this development, but
it warrants attention. Moscow’s efforts in Africa are not limited to
CAR, and there are signs that its involvement in the continent is set to
widen. Indeed, it has been reported that in October of this year, Putin
and Egyptian President Abdel Fatah Sisi will convene 50 African leaders
at the first-ever Russian-African Summit in Sochi.
There have been reports in the media that Russia
intends to increase its presence in at least 13 African countries.
Moreover, Russia is increasingly stepping in with trade and business
agreements, military sales and cooperation, and political and
paramilitary support.
For example, Russia deployed private military
contractors to CAR to deliver arms, train government forces, and provide
personal protection to the president. Similar steps were taken in Libya
and in Sudan, where Russian advisers supported Bashir. In May, Moscow
announced plans to deploy technical experts to the Republic of the Congo
to train local forces to use Russian military equipment.
For Moscow, the African continent is not only an
emerging nuclear energy market but also a growing agricultural export
ground for Russian wheat.
On a larger level, notwithstanding Moscow’s
partial failures in Sudan and South Africa, its moves on the continent
have been largely successful so far. They come amid a geopolitical
vacuum in Africa created by the declining interest of both Europe and
the US in the continent. Russia needs influence in Africa, as the
continent is poised by 2050 to have 25% of the world’s population of
working age and the greatest store of rare earth materials outside
China. Also, Africa’s 54 countries make up the most important voting
bloc in the UN, which can give Moscow additional leverage. Hence Russian
minister of foreign affairs Sergei Lavrov’s frequent visits to the
African states.
Russian interests in Africa can be characterized
as imperial in the economic sense. Geopolitical support for various
states and their at times embattled leaders gives Moscow a vast
opportunity to gain a rich raw resource base. This approach is not that
different from what European countries, the US, and China have done
across the continent. Africa is large and rich, but it is also
militarily and economically unstable. This makes it a geopolitical
opportunity.
Russia might still be utilizing the ideological
concepts of Pan-Africanism and African nationalism to generate deep
connections between African postcolonial activists and
Moscow’s internationalist agenda. Russian interests in Africa relate
primarily to the tradition established during the Cold War, when Moscow
expanded its influence on the continent through military sales, economic
incentives, and the export of Communism ideology.
But there has been a grand geopolitical shift in
Moscow’s position that has caused it to increase its efforts in Africa.
Ever since its 2014 annexation of Crimea, which distanced it from the
West, Russia’s geopolitical thrust has shifted elsewhere to leverage its
failing position on the Ukrainian front. By intervening in Syria on
Assad’s behalf, Moscow was hoping to force the West to drop its support
for Ukraine in exchange for Russian concessions in Syria.
The same is playing out in Venezuela, and Russia’s
African economic and diplomatic offensive might be a part of a similar
strategy: to gain influence in regions important to the West in order to
develop a more balanced geopolitical position against Washington and
other western countries.
Competition over Africa’s major resources and the
search for geopolitical allies reflects, and is a part of, a larger
battle playing out in the world. In Eurasia, the US is facing China and
Russia, and the African continent is gradually becoming a similar stage
for competition among those three players.
Chinese influence in Africa is well known, and is
mainly characterized by a large resource pool. But it also indicates
that in the scramble for African resources, China and Russia are
challenging the West. This is troublesome for Washington as the US still
does not have an effective strategic policy to oppose Moscow and
Beijing in Africa. China and Russia once again find themselves aligned
against America, and this trend underlines their deep cooperation.
Although it is fashionable to portray the
partnership between Moscow and Beijing as a mere alliance of
convenience, its potential should not be underestimated. The two
undermine US influence across the continents. We will likely see even
greater competition in Africa in coming years and larger infrastructure
projects pulled off by Moscow and Beijing.
It is possible that the US will pay more attention
to Africa by trying to entice the Christian south and some states in
the Muslim north via direct economic incentives and/or proxy diplomacy.
However, considering the problems the US is experiencing simultaneously
in Eurasia against Russia, China, Iran, Turkey, and others, its
attention is likely to remain elsewhere for the foreseeable future.
Source: https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/russia-china-influence-africa/
Follow Middle East and Terrorism on Twitter
No comments:
Post a Comment