by Seth J. Frantzman
The question now in Gaza is whether the death of Sinwar and the fighting in Jabaliya will hand Hamas a defeat that will change things strategically.
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The IDF continues operating in Jabaliya, a neighborhood and suburb of Gaza City in northern Gaza. The area is home to a large number of Palestinian civilians who remained in the area throughout the war and also returned over the last year.
It is estimated there are hundreds of thousands of Gazans in northern Gaza, out of a population of some 2 million in the whole of Gaza. How many of those people are in Jabaliya is unclear, but it appears to be many thousands.
Jabaliya mission led to Sinwar’s end
The IDF began operations in Jabaliya for at least the third time in a year when the 162nd Division was sent into the area on October 6. The 162nd was pulled out of Rafah and sent north to complete this task.
This movement of IDF troops set the stage for two important incidents. First, it led to the killing of Yahya Sinwar, who was killed by troops searching Tel al-Sultan ten days after the Jabaliya operation began. Second, it has led to the demand by Israel that civilians evacuate large areas of northern Gaza.
It's unclear if the Jabaliya operation helped lead to Sinwar's finding. It’s possible he felt he could wander around more openly because he believed the IDF was shifting forces to northern Gaza and was focused on Lebanon.
What matters is that Hamas continues to lose ground. On the other hand, Hamas continues to control large parts of Gaza. Reports on October 21 paint a picture of a Hamas that can still engage in hostage deal talks.
Who represents Hamas in Gaza? Probably Yahya Sinwar's brother. However, Hamas also has many leaders abroad, most of whom live in Qatar and Turkey. Today, more Hamas leadership lives in countries that are considered US allies. Turkey is a NATO ally, and Qatar is a major non-NATO ally.
Hamas wants war to continue
“Senior Hamas official Khaled Meshaal has reiterated the steadfastness of the Palestinian resistance movement in its struggle against the Zionist regime until the liberation of Palestine,” Iran’s IRNA reported on October 21.
This illustrates that Hamas members in Qatar and Turkey are pushing for the war in Gaza to continue. Iran’s foreign minister recently visited Turkey, and he met with Hamas members while he was there. Turkey backs Hamas, and coordination may be taking place at high levels between Ankara and Tehran to back Hamas and figure out the next steps in Gaza.
Meshaal’s statement likely dovetails with this. “Meshaal, who is also serving as the head of Hamas outside Palestine, while delivering a speech in honor of Martyr Yahya Sinwar, the head of the political bureau of the resistance movement, said that the option of resistance is there until the liberation of Palestine,” IRNA reported in Iran.
“During the Al-Aqsa storm operation, we lost a large number of resistance leaders in Gaza, the West Bank, and abroad, as well as the residents of the camps and this movement has always presented its leaders on the path of martyrdom, pride, liberation of the land and the freedom from the Israeli occupation, headed by Ahmed Yassin, who was assassinated by the Zionist regime in 2004,” Meshaal said.
This means that Hamas abroad is preparing for a long war and seeks to replace Sinwar. Publicly, Hamas wants to show that the group will not agree to a ceasefire or a deal.
Meanwhile, in Gaza, Hamas is losing out in Jabaliya. “Over the past day, IDF troops dismantled terror infrastructure and tunnel shafts and eliminated terrorists in the area of Jabaliya. IDF tanks, in cooperation with the IAF, eliminated several terrorists that posed a threat to the troops,” the IDF said on October 21. The IDF continues to grind down the terrorists.
The IDF’s goal in Gaza is to remove Hamas's terrorist infrastructure and find the remaining Hamas fighters.
It appears Hamas returned to northern Gaza several times, even after the IDF fought in Jabaliya in December 2023 and again in the first half of 2024. Hamas keeps returning and recruiting. It is also innovating new ways to kill Israeli soldiers.
The head of the 401st Armored Brigade, Col. Ehsan Daxa, was killed on October 20. This is a serious loss and it follows other losses in Gaza, which shows that Hamas is still a threat.
The war continues
The question now in Gaza is whether the death of Sinwar and the fighting in Jabaliya will hand Hamas a defeat that will change things strategically. Israel has been fighting a tactical war in Gaza, where numerous victories take place, but Hamas is not entirely defeated.
The absence of a clear day-after strategy also leads to a sense among Hamas leaders abroad that they can hang on and survive. With the death of Sinwar, there are also questions about the ability to free hostages.
For most of the year, the war in Gaza was fought on two tracks, one of talks in Doha or Cairo about hostages and another of tactical battles in Gaza. It’s not clear if the pressure on Hamas or reduction of its capabilities has led to flexibility on the hostages.
Without Sinwar in charge, it should be possible to do more work on freeing the hostages.
The question after Jabaliya is cleared of terrorists is whether there is a next step and a willingness to exploit the death of Sinwar for leverage. Hamas leaders abroad appear to be saying that they won’t budge.
With most of them living in Western allies, it is harder to foresee them being eliminated. This gives them confidence to continue to survive and “win” simply.
Seth J. Frantzman
Source: https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-825478
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