The Saudi solution: The army that could defeat the Houthis - analysis - Mark Lavie

 

by Mark Lavie

A renewed Saudi offensive could neutralize the Houthis and set the stage for a broader Middle East realignment

 

MEMBERS OF Houthi security forces patrol the site of a demonstration, attended by predominantly Houthi-supporting protesters, in solidarity with Palestinians, in Sanaa, Yemen, on July 11.

(photo credit: KHALED ABDULLAH/REUTERS)

 

There’s a Mideast army that can crush the Houthi terrorists of Yemen, stopping their lethal attacks in vital Red Sea shipping lanes and their missile strikes on Israel. The Houthis are much more dangerous than a frequent aggravation in Israel; a single ballistic missile triggers air raid sirens and Israeli anti-missile systems, sending millions into bomb shelters in the middle of the night.

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More important is the disruption to world shipping from Houthi missile attacks on ships in the Red Sea. In the past month, Houthi terrorists have sunk two ships, killed several sailors, and taken others captive. In response, shippers send their vessels the long way around Africa, bypassing Egypt’s Suez Canal and Israel’s port of Eilat, adding millions to costs and weeks to deliveries.

All this is because of an Iran-backed gang of violent extremists with no more than 20,000 armed fighters overrunning half their own country, the half that happens to control the Bab el-Mandeb straits at the end of the Red Sea.

Despite a ceasefire with the US, the Houthis continue their attacks on cargo ships in the Red Sea, as well as their missile attacks on Israel, which is not covered by the ill-advised American truce. In response, Israel has carried out dozens of airstrikes on targets in the Houthi-controlled part of Yemen, blasting seaports and military installations. 

Iranian weapons were intercepted on their way to the Houthi terrorist groups. (credit: X/CENTCOM)

But air strikes are just a first stage. Ground troops are needed. A large, well-equipped military, ready to move, could take care of that problem once and for all. This military has 480,000 soldiers on active duty and another 325,000 reservists. It has an annual budget of about $70 billion, a large fleet of advanced attack aircraft, nearly 1,000 tanks, and thousands of armored personnel carriers. Israel, right? No, it’s Saudi Arabia next door to Yemen.

Saudi Arabia has about four times Israel’s population, nearly three times Israel’s defense budget, three times as many regular army soldiers, and nearly as many reservists. That’s not to say it’s a better army than Israel’s, but it’s bigger. Big enough for the tasks at hand. 

We usually hear about the Saudi military only when the US announces its latest multi-billion-dollar arms deal with the kingdom, and Israel and its backers stand up and scream. But in the end, all that advanced military equipment is there and ready to go if Saudi Arabia has the motivation to use it. Saudi Arabia already fought the Houthis once. Cross-border clashes erupted in 2009 and continued off and on for a decade. 

The Houthis fired missiles at Saudi Arabia, including one that hit the main airport, and the Saudis sent some forces into Yemen to try to root out the Iran-backed terrorists. The Saudis withdrew, tails between legs, after a ceasefire agreement in 2018. The defeat wasn’t for lack of firepower. The Saudi failure reflected a lack of commitment. 

So what has changed? What would motivate the Saudis to try again and go all-in this time? Quite a bit: Iran, Saudi Arabia’s archenemy, has been significantly weakened in its wars against Israel, losing its proxies in Lebanon and Gaza and suffering a humiliating defeat from Israeli and American airstrikes on its homeland. In parallel, a new axis is forming in the Mideast, complicating the old picture of Saudi-led Sunni Muslims against Iran-led Shiites: Turkey is making a play as a regional power alongside Iran. Turkey is a once-secular Sunni nation led into extreme Islamism by its strongman president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. This presents both a danger and an opportunity for Saudi Arabia and its forward-looking leader, Mohammed bin Salman. 

Iran's continued backing of terror groups

On the one hand, Iran continues to arm the Houthis, while the Turkey-Iran axis presents a threat to Saudi Arabia’s other front. On the other hand, it’s a chance for MBS, as the Saudi crown prince is known, to assert Saudi leadership in the region as a counter to the new axis. Why would he do that? Why not just leave well enough alone and just watch potential threats that might or might not explode in his face? Because he can, MBS wants to make an impact. And here’s where Israel comes in. 

For Saudi Arabia to assume a positive regional posture, MBS must agree to join the historic Abraham Accords, peace agreements between Israel and several Arab nations near Saudi Arabia. That would create a coalition as the clear leader in the region. For that to happen, the war in Gaza needs to end. Considering the potential benefits to Israel of a Saudi-led, moderate Arab force to replace the Iranian terror front, ending the war should be Israel’s top priority instead of the unattainable ”total victory” and endless, fruitless hostage “negotiations” with Hamas terrorists who have no interest in letting the Israelis dig out of the international mudslide they’ve triggered. 

One price of Saudi involvement would be a “political horizon” for the Palestinians, a nod in the direction of a Palestinian state. Israel’s current leadership would never agree to that, though the Palestinians have proven repeatedly that they don’t want a state that lives in peace with Israel. They want a state that lives in peace without Israel. So that horizon is so far off that even the Hubble Space Telescope couldn’t spot it. 

A moderate, Saudi-led coalition could take over the rehabilitation of Gaza and control of the terrorists. That could even lead to a permanent solution between Israel and the Palestinians, imposed by the coalition, hopefully with Israel’s cooperation. The first step in this process would be the elimination of the Houthi threat and the reunification of Yemen under Saudi protection.  Not bad for a first step

Mark Lavie

Source: https://www.jpost.com/international/islamic-terrorism/article-862891

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