by Dr. Ofer Israeli
Unless a proper strategy is adopted, the deal might let Iran produce dozens of nuclear bombs within a decade or two. But the deal's adverse effects will be felt much sooner. Iran's immediate rise as a fierce adversary will likely result in far-reaching strategic changes in region and beyond. It is safe to assume that the deal will trigger a nuclear arms race in the region.
The nuclear deal between Iran and the West is a great Iranian success story. The provisions stipulated in the July 14 agreement were made possible thanks to the masterful haggling of the Iranian negotiators, who made sure to incorporate foreign policy, public diplomacy and international crisis management into one overarching negotiating strategy. The world powers were brought to their knees in Vienna, but those who will have to live with the agreement's consequences are Israel and the other nations in the region.
Soon after the deal was announced, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said that after 12 years of negotiations, Iran's right to nuclear enrichment was finally recognized by the world powers. Rouhani's statement suggests that Iran will continue to pursue a military nuclear program. With the lifting of sanctions, it will rake in billions of dollars that, together with the ineffective and limited inspection regime run by the International Atomic Energy Agency, will help Iran realize its goal -- becoming a regional power that has nuclear capabilities.
Unless a proper strategy is adopted, the deal might let Iran produce dozens of nuclear bombs within a decade or two. But the deal's adverse effects will be felt much sooner. Iran's immediate rise as a fierce adversary will likely result in far-reaching strategic changes in region and beyond. It is safe to assume that the deal will trigger a nuclear arms race in the region.
Saudi Arabia, the largest and most important Arab state in the Persian Gulf, will feel compelled to obtain nuclear weapons. Using its massive cash reserves, it will develop an indigenous nuclear program or buy off-the-shelf nuclear warheads from Pakistan, as Islamabad is indebted to Riyadh, which funded a major part of the Pakistani nuclear program. Egypt and Turkey might also opt for a nuclear program as a means of preserving their regional status and checking the threatening Shiite empire, whose rise will be facilitated by the international powers.
Without the sanctions, the Iranian economy will thrive. A tremendously prosperous Iran will use its regional tentacles to destabilize other countries in the region, even more so that it does today. Nations that currently enjoy relative stability, like Jordan, will have to remain on guard to make sure Iran does not meddle in its affairs and topple the regime. Meanwhile, Iran's regional allies -- like the Syrian regime and Hezbollah -- will try to leverage the deal to increase their clout, relying on the increase in military and monetary support from Teheran.
Decision-makers in Washington, led by President Barack Obama, expect the nuclear deal to defuse tensions in the region and help stabilize the war-torn region. But the reality might be very different and may ultimately prove challenging to the moderate Arab states. Likewise, Jerusalem may have to face challenges unlike it has ever seen before. When all is said and done, rather than extract itself form the region, the U.S. may be drawn back. This time around, though, it may find itself knee-deep in the region's affairs.
Dr. Ofer Israeli is a senior adviser on international strategy and teaches foreign policy decision-making at the Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy and Strategy at the Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya.
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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