Israel, Hezbollah closest to war since ceasefire as group's disarmament lags - analysis - Amichai Stein

 

by Amichai Stein

“Hezbollah is rebuilding far more quickly than the Lebanese Army can disarm it,” Western intelligence sources told The Jerusalem Post last week.

 

Supporters of Lebanon's Shiite terror group Hezbollah attend the funeral of terrorists killed in recent Israeli attacks, in the southern city of Nabatiyeh on November 2, 2025.

(photo credit: MAHMOUD ZAYYAT/AFP via Getty Images)

 

Israel and Hezbollah are closer to war than they have been since the ceasefire agreement signed a year ago. Both sides currently understand the rules of the game, and yet those rules are becoming more dangerous by the day.

Two months after the Lebanese government decided to disarm Hezbollah, it appears the plan is not proceeding as intended.

“Hezbollah is rebuilding far more quickly than the Lebanese Army can disarm it,” Western intelligence sources told The Jerusalem Post last week.

Lebanese army's attempts to disarm Hezbollah slow-going

There have been occasional attempts by the Lebanese army to confront the organization and act against its weapons stockpiles, but the pace is described as very slow.

That impression is shared by Israelis and their American counterparts, who feel that even if the government in Beirut has good intentions, nothing is happening on the ground: Hezbollah is managing to smuggle missiles out, recruit fighters, and rebuild bases.

Lebanese army vehicles move along a road near the Ain al-Hilweh camp for Palestinian refugees in Lebanon's southern city of Sidon on September 13, 2025, (credit: MAHMOUD ZAYYAT/AFP via Getty Images)

“They simply aren’t doing enough,” senior American officials told the Post. President Donald Trump’s envoys, Morgan Ortagus and Tom Barrack, reprimanded the Lebanese, warned them they would be left alone, and cautioned that without Hezbollah’s disarmament, no funds would flow for the country’s reconstruction. There was even an Israeli request to slow the tempo of strikes, but none of this has helped much.

It’s not only that the Lebanese Army can’t keep up; it’s also unclear how eager it is to act. “We must remember there are Shi’ite elements within the Lebanese Army whose last wish would be to confront their brethren in Hezbollah,” an Israeli source told the Post.

On Sunday, Defense Minister Israel Katz threatened to ramp up Israel’s activities in Lebanon, and an anonymous official warned the Lebanese press that Beirut was once again in the crosshairs. It’s important to say that even if Hezbollah responds, it is not the same terror organization it once was. Still, it seems Israel has decided, for now at least, to raise the temperature gradually.

Clearly, if Hezbollah takes action against Israel, Israel has an operational plan for a broad response. Still, until that moment, the Jewish state does not want to overreact and endanger assets, those being its five outposts and its freedom of action, and risk losing both.

Amichai Stein

Source: https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-872495

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