by Prof. Eyal Zisser
Russia's success stemmed from a cynical alliance of interests with Iran and Turkey, three countries barely able to conceal their distrust and even hostility toward the others.
In
the past week, Russian President Vladimir Putin has twice reiterated
his declaration of victory in Syria. He did so while meeting Syrian
President Bashar Assad on Monday, and on Wednesday during his meeting
with the presidents of Iran and Turkey.
Putin, however, knows very well that
winning the battle is one thing and that establishing peace and
restoring stability to a war-torn country is something else entirely.
Victory on this front requires more than bombers and cruise missiles,
not to mention Iranian fighters. To succeed in the war's aftermath,
Putin will need Turkey's goodwill and a certain degree of cooperation
from rebel groups, those which somehow survived the Iranian-Russian
onslaught.
The job is particularly complex, not just
because of the plethora of players active in the Syrian arena – among
them Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and, of course, Israel – but mainly due
to the fact that Russia's success stemmed from a cynical alliance of
interests with Iran and Turkey, three countries barely able to conceal
their distrust and even hostility toward the others. It seems the only
thing these three allies, or at the very least their leaders, have in
common is their unbridled hatred for the United States, against which,
even more than against Islamic State, they joined hands in Syria.
Putin, therefore, wants to strike while the
iron is still hot – while the sides can still be swayed by his military
achievements on the battlefield – and concoct a deal to end the war. To
be sure, as long as the coals continue to burn in Syria, Russia's
ultimate victory in that country is unassured.
Within the parameters of Putin's deal, each
side is supposed to give their fair share. The rebels will have to
accept that Assad will remain in power; because Putin does not have the
intention, the will or the ability for that matter, to replace him.
Assad, for his part, will have to come to terms with the continued
existence of rebel-controlled enclaves and recognize them as partners in
managing the everyday affairs of the local populations there.
Israel, too, is being asked not to
interfere and even accept Iran's continued presence in Syria. In return,
the Russians have agreed to keep the Iranians away from Israel's border
on the Golan Heights; and it is safe to assume they will still turn a
blind eye to Israel's ongoing activity against national security threats
on its northern front. It was to this end that Putin spoke with
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday, as the Russian president
considers Israel a partner whose agreement, even if provided under a
modicum of protest, is essential to the Russian plan.
Only the Americans are on the outside
looking in. Washington has a military presence in Syria and its
agreement will be needed for any peace deal. The problem is the lack of
clear policy behind this military presence. It is pointless, therefore,
to talk to the Americans. Putin will hope to sell his postwar plan to
U.S. President Donald Trump when they find the time to speak by phone –
if the American president can pay attention long enough.
Prof. Eyal Zisser
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/opinions/splitting-the-spoils/
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