by Yaakov Lappin
Israeli air power now has capabilities beyond any yet seen in military history.
Two Israeli F-35 “Adirs” fly in formation
and display the US and Israeli flags,
Dec 6, 2016. USAF
photo by 1st Lt.
Erik D. Anthony via Wikipedia
BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 649, November 21, 2017
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Israeli
air power now has capabilities beyond any yet seen in military history.
Its aerial strike capabilities are likely to prove decisive to the
outcome of any military action taken against Iran in Syria.
Iran has big plans to create a military outpost in
Syria, right on Israel’s doorstep. From there, the Islamic Republic
could threaten and attack Israel in the future.
Israel is currently employing two tools to try and
prevent this from happening: diplomacy and deterrence. Diplomatically,
Jerusalem is reaching out to global powers and the international
community, informing them of the consequences of Iran’s actions in a bid
to create pressure on Tehran. To achieve deterrence, Israel is making
clear to Iran and its agents that it has no intention of allowing them
to proceed with their plans.
But what can Israel do if these prevention efforts
fail, as they might? In such a scenario, Israel would have to fall back
on military action. Some of that action would likely involve Israel’s
new aerial strike capabilities.
These recently developed capabilities might well
surpass any display of air power seen in military history thus far. They
are based on an ability to use precise intelligence, combined with
precision-guided weaponry, to destroy up to several thousand targets in
just a matter of hours.
This is a tool that the Israel Air Force, together
with the Military Intelligence Directorate of the Israel Defense Forces
(IDF), has been developing quietly over recent years. It is a
game-changing capability that significantly boosts Israeli deterrence
against its enemies. It also boosts actual war fighting capabilities,
should these be called upon.
In recent weeks and months, there have been
indications that Iran is testing the waters in Syria. It is seeing how
far it can go, and how far it can push Israel’s red lines.
In November, a Western intelligence source shared satellite imagery with the showing a new Iranian base being built south of Damascus.
The facility can house hundreds of personnel and vehicles. It is a mere
50 kilometers from Syria’s border with Israel, and represents the tip
of the iceberg of Iran’s plans for Syria.
This month, during a visit to London, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the BBC in
an interview that the Iranians “want to bring their air force there,
right next to Israel, they want to bring Shi’ite and Iranian divisions
right next to Israel. They want to bring submarines. So we will not let
that happen, we will resist it.”
Israel’s Kan News broadcaster also
recently reported Iranian plans to set up a division in Syria made up of
5,000 soldiers, air force bases containing Iranian fighter jets, and
Iranian naval bases on the Syrian coastline.
Iran has already deployed to Syria thousands of
Shiite militia members recruited from across the Middle East. They have
been armed and trained by the Iranian Republican Guards Corps and the
elite overseas Iranian Quds Force.
The Iranians also run militia units made up of
Syrian recruits. The Commander of the Quds Force, Qassem Solemani, was
recently photographed in eastern Syria with members of one such militia,
the al-Baqr Battalion. The Iranians also helped build up other Syrian
military forces, like the 313 Battalion.
At the same time, Iran appears to have stepped up
efforts to create missile factories on Syrian soil, which it can use to
arm its chief Shiite proxy, Hezbollah. One of these factories was
reportedly struck by Israel last month.
As ISIS crumbles and the remainder of the Syrian
Sunni rebels face defeat in Syria, Iran, which runs Assad’s ground war,
will be free to shift the focus of its Syrian presence towards Israel.
Israel is prepared to deal with this threat
militarily if necessary, though the intelligence challenge would be
considerable. Many of the targets in question would not be clear-cut
Iranian military entities, but rather proxies and militias attempting to
disguise themselves or embedded into the local environment. Still,
Israel’s intelligence capabilities should be up to the job of detecting
and monitoring the targets and passing them on to the air force.
So far, Israel has used its precision strike
capabilities for pinpoint attacks on targets that are part of the
Hezbollah–Iran weapons program. But these same strike capabilities can
be activated on a grand scale. The same air power can also be directed
against the Assad regime, which the Iranian axis has fought for years to
rescue and preserve.
In theory, Israel could inform Iran that its
treasured Assad regime would be in jeopardy if Israel’s red lines are
crossed in Syria.
Needless to say, any major escalation in Syria
would almost certainly draw in Hezbollah in Lebanon as well, as the two
fronts are interlinked. The Syrian-Lebanese border has become more of an
imaginary line on a map than a real international boundary, as
Hezbollah moves weapons and fighters across it on a regular basis. Any
escalation on the Syrian front could easily activate the Lebanese front.
The stakes in Syria are very high, and Israel
remains committed to the objective of preventing conflict on its
northern fronts. So far, it has succeeded in this goal.
Russia has thus far appeared to help restrain its
radical allies in Syria, but its role in any potential escalation
remains unclear.
But should Iran ignore all of Israel’s warnings,
Israel’s new air power will likely prove decisive to the outcome of
military action in this arena.
This article was published by i24NEWS on November 14, 2017.
BESA Center Perspectives Papers are published through the generosity of the Greg Rosshandler Family
Source: https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/iran-doorstep-israel-readies-air-power/
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Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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