Iran may have slaughtered 30,000 protesters in 48-hour intense crackdown - Jacob Laznik, Miriam Sela-Eitam

 

​ by Jacob Laznik, Miriam Sela-Eitam

If the estimates are true, the only comparable massacre in history databases would be the murder of 33,000 Jews in the Babyn Yar massacre during the Holocaust outside of Kyiv in 1941.

 

Fires are lit as protesters rally on January 8, 2026 in Tehran, Iran.

(photo credit: Anonymous/Getty Images)

 

As many as 30,000 people may have been killed across Iran during a two-day crackdown on January 8 and 9, TIME reported on Sunday, citing two senior Health Ministry officials and a separate compilation of hospital data shared with the publication. The figures have not been independently verified and far exceed numbers publicly cited by authorities.

The number, if true, would massively increase the death toll from previously believed estimates. Days after the alleged massacre, Iran International estimated around 12,000 deaths from the two-day period.

The officials said the scale of killing overwhelmed the capacity to handle the dead, exhausting body bag stocks, and prompting the use of eighteen-wheeled trailers to move bodies. TIME reported that security forces used rooftop snipers and trucks mounted with heavy machine guns after authorities cut communications. An Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps official warned on state television that anyone entering the streets should not complain if a bullet hit them, according to the report.

A hospital-based count shared with TIME listed 30,304 deaths as of Friday, January 9, said Dr. Amir Parasta, a German-Iranian ophthalmologist who compiled the data. “We are getting closer to reality,” he said, while adding that the tally likely excludes cases from military hospitals and unreachable areas. Public health specialists quoted by TIME cautioned against over-extrapolating from hospital records but said the internal figures point to mass killing over a short period.

If numbers are accurate, massacre in Iran parallels Holocaust's Babyn Yar

Experts struggled to find historical parallels for so many people shot to death in such a brief span. TIME noted that the only comparable event to the two-day period in Iran in online mass killing databases involved the execution by gunfire of some 33,000 Jews during the Holocaust at Babyn Yar outside Kyiv on September 29 and 30, 1941.

Members of the Iranian police attend a pro-government rally in Tehran, Iran, January 12, 2026. (credit: STRINGER/WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY) VIA REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS)

Iran's Islamic Regime death toll numbers mitigate truth, impact of massacres

The government’s internal two-day count, as described to TIME, dwarfs a figure of 3,117 announced on January 21 by hardline officials who report directly to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

While the true number of the dead in the protests is unknown, a US-based Iranian rights group, HRANA, confirmed 5,459 deaths as of Saturday and was investigating more than 17,000 additional cases.

On Sunday, Iran International estimated that at least 36,500 Iranians have been killed by the regime since the beginning of the protests, citing new documentation and eyewitness accounts from medical staff, families of the deceased, and others.

The Daily Mail, citing Iranian-German Professor Amir-Mobarez Parasta, produced a similar estimate, stating that the death toll may be sitting at over 33,000, with 97,645 people wounded.

Both Iranian International and Parasta noted that the regime has reportedly started carrying out executions across the country.

Several of the dead were reportedly shot in the head after being admitted to the hospital for medical treatment, per images released from local morgues and seen by Iran International.

A group of medical personnel confirmed to Iran International that “lethal shots were fired at the injured.”

Accounts gathered by TIME described the internet blackout’s role in obscuring the toll, with images of bodies trickling out via illicit satellite connections. Early on into the protests, the regime conducted a near-total internet shutdown across Iran.

Shortly afterwards, hospitals in Tehran were crowded with wounded and dead, while conditions inside Iran’s digital iron curtain left families unable to verify the fate of relatives.

The crackdown unfolded as opposition figures urged mass turnout. Throughout the protests, Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi’s calls for united protests have been widely circulated.

International bodies have since moved to address alleged abuses, with the UN Human Rights Council extending an independent probe into the violence.

"The 30,000 verified deaths are almost certainly an underestimate," Columbia University researcher Les Roberts told TIME, noting that crisis mortality counts often omit victims who never reach hospitals or are buried outside official channels.

Paul B. Spiegel of Johns Hopkins praised the rapid hospital data collection under dangerous conditions but cautioned that intimidation, disrupted record keeping, and parallel military medical systems can skew tallies. Both experts said only transparent access to hospital logs, civil registries, and burial records would clarify the true toll.

“According to Israeli officials, the night of January 8 on the streets of Iran was the deadliest in the history of the Islamic Republic—and among the deadliest worldwide in a generation,” N12 News reporter Amit Segal posted to X/Twitter on Sunday morning.

According to Israeli officials the night of January 8 on the streets of Iran was the deadliest in the history of the Islamic Republic—and among the deadliest worldwide in a generation.

The regime murdered thousands, possibly tens of thousands.

A massacre on an almost…

— Amit Segal (@AmitSegal) January 25, 2026

“The regime murdered thousands, possibly tens of thousands,” he wrote. “A massacre on an almost unimaginable scale.”

Jacob Laznik, Miriam Sela-Eitam

Source: https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-884443

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Damascus acting with US backing to control Jabal al-Druze in southern Syria, official says - Miriam Sela-Eitam

 

​ by Miriam Sela-Eitam

Citing the official, KAN reported that American support is conditional on Sharaa's actions not harming Israel's national security.

 

People stand next to a destroyed tank turret, following deadly clashes between Druze fighters, Sunni Bedouin tribes and government forces, in Syria's predominantly Druze city of Sweida, Syria July 25, 2025.

(photo credit: REUTERS/Khalil Ashawi TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY)

 

The Syrian government is acting in coordination with the United States, under the impression that the US supports Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa's actions to take control over Jabal al-Druze, a Syrian defense official told Israeli broadcaster KAN News on Saturday.

Citing the official, KAN reported that American support is conditional both on Shaara's actions not harming Israel's national security and that there be no further massacres of the Druze currently living in the area, such as in the case of Sweida in July 2025.

Members of the community in Swieda told The Jerusalem Post in October that 2,500 people were murdered by the Syrian Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham Sunni-Islamist group (HTS) and state-backed Bedouin groups.

More than 250 people, including women and children, were abducted in the violence. A further 291,000 others were displaced, according to the community.

The official noted that Syria's government has yet to decide on re-entering Sweida, explaining that "it will happen sooner or later, hopefully through dialogue and understanding."

A druze fighter stands at a roundabout draped with the Druze flag and a portrait of a local leader, in the predominantly Druze city of Sweida in southern Syria, in July, after a ceasefire in the southern province halted a week of sectarian bloodshed. (credit: Shadi al-Dubaisi/AFP via Getty Images)

Syrian gov't extends ceasefire with Kurds

However, tensions in Syria are far from over. The ceasefire between the Syrian government and the Kurdish-led, US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which expired on Saturday night, was extended by another 15 days, Syria's Defense Ministry said in a post to X/Twitter that evening.  

The extension comes to support an ongoing US operation to transfer Islamic State detainees from SDF prisons in Syria to Iraq, the ministry explained.

بيان بشأن تمديد مهلة وقف إطلاق النار 15 يوماً #الجمهورية_العربية_السورية #وزارة_الدفاع pic.twitter.com/Egrh1Ga4mo

— وزارة الدفاع السورية (@Sy_Defense) January 24, 2026

The ceasefire was agreed upon last week, after government forces rapidly seized swathes of northern and eastern territory from the SDF. With the ceasefire, Shaara offered an ultimatum: lay down arms and come up with a plan to integrate with Syria's army, or the fighting would resume.

According to Reuters, a Syrian official said on Saturday that the SDF had not responded to the government's attempts to reach out. Meanwhile, the SDF accused the government of moving towards escalation in a "systematic manner" through military build-ups.

The SDF said in a statement that the agreement had been reached through international mediation, "while dialogue with Damascus continues."

Danielle Greyman-Kennard and Reuters contributed to this report. 

Miriam Sela-Eitam

Source: https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-884451

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Iran security forces shoved wounded protesters into body bags, executed live patients in hospitals - Omid Habibinia

 

​ by Omid Habibinia

In a shocking revelation, the Iran Human Rights Documentation Center has reported the case of a young, wounded protester who survived by pretending to be dead inside a body bag.

 

People gather during protest on January 8, 2026 in Tehran, Iran.

(photo credit: Anonymous/Getty Images) 

Disturbing reports have surfaced as Iranian internet access is gradually restored following days of total communication blackouts. An increasingly horrifying picture of atrocities virtually unparalleled in the 21st century is being revealed, further intensifying public fear, anger, and revulsion.

For more stories from The Media Line go to themedialine.org

According to sources, numerous injured protesters were not taken to hospitals but to forensic morgues while they were still alive and transported by truck to a hangar facility in Kahrizak. Among them, several were still breathing.

In a shocking revelation, the Iran Human Rights Documentation Center has reported the case of a young, wounded protester who survived by pretending to be dead inside a body bag. He heard gunshots being fired at wounded civilians who moved or moaned while being held in body bags. Fearing he would be next, he remained motionless in the bag for three days, until a crowd of families stormed the site in search of their loved ones, enabling him to escape. 

A forensic medicine specialist from Tehran told The Media Line that the level of brutality displayed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in killing wounded protesters, who were piled atop one another in hospital corridors, was so extreme that many healthcare workers suffered severe psychological shock. They witnessed how wounded individuals who were still alive were transferred to morgues and placed in body bags. He also said he had heard from other physicians that wounded patients were killed by IRGC forces. 

Professor Amir Mobarez Parasta, who has investigated the massacre of protesters in Iran on Jan. 8 and 9, states that half of those killed never reached hospitals and that many other deaths were never officially recorded in medical facilities. He also confirms reports of protesters being found alive inside body bags. 

IRGC commander Hossein Salami tours the new ''missile city'' at an undisclosed location in Iran, January 11, 2025 (credit: IRGC/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS)

Healthcare professionals observed bodies with essential medical equipment still attached, such as oxygen tubes, electrodes, and ECG monitoring leads. They concluded that these individuals had been forcibly transferred to morgues while under medical treatment and left to die.

They further pointed to the absence of official medical death reports for some protesters who died in hospitals, as well as to “numerous cases in which individuals with multiple gunshot wounds were left without any medical attention among the dead protesters.”

Nurse confirms wounded are executed 

The Media Line obtained a message from a nurse who confirmed that patients were being systematically executed. The nurse was later killed.  

The note read: “I saw it with my own eyes; they came and took the wounded away. There was even someone in the operating room—I heard they even delivered finishing shots (execution shots). Taking someone out of the operating room means they intend to kill them. We are all the 'walking dead' now. I cannot describe the level of shock we are in. I’m not afraid of them killing me. My only reason for wanting to stay alive is to be there for the wounded. I cannot describe the level of shock we are in. But I want to stay alive just to attend to the wounded. You cannot imagine how many injured people we have here.”

Death toll estimates may be far higher than imagined

Some estimates suggest that the death toll may be far higher than initial figures.

Multiple reports from cities across Iran in recent days indicate that some families have buried the bodies of their loved ones at home, while others, out of fear of abduction by security forces, have kept severely wounded individuals hidden.

Horrifying videos have reached viewers outside Iran in recent days, after circulating through various clandestine channels from cities across the country, showing an extensive and sustained massacre of protesters on Iran’s streets. Adding to the horror of this unprecedented bloodshed in Iran’s recent history are numerous reports of execution-style shots fired at wounded protesters lying in the streets.

On Friday, an intensive care unit nurse in Iran told The Media Line that she had personally seen multiple bodies bearing not only gunshot wounds to vital organs but also to the head, clear evidence that security and military forces, after shooting protesters and knocking them to the ground, approached them and killed them at close range.

Many protesters who took to the streets on Thursday, Jan. 8, and Friday, Jan. 9, say that the intent of the military forces, who from Thursday night onward had deployed heavy machine guns and armored vehicles throughout the streets, was neither to disperse nor even to injure demonstrators, but rather to kill them.

Sahar Motallebi, an Iranian physician who has provided online medical assistance to the wounded inside the country, states: “There are cases in which bullet entry wounds are visible on the forehead, with blood patterns running horizontally, indicating that the shot was fired while the individual was lying down. The presence of catheters on these bodies also shows that the person had been in an operating room or under medical treatment. These findings are consistent with reports from Sina Hospital, where a large number of wounded patients were abducted by security forces after undergoing surgery.”

An Iranian protester who recently fled the country to a neighboring state told The Media Line that the scale of live fire in the streets of Tehran—particularly in the western and eastern districts—with clear intent to kill, was so extensive that it resembled a civil war. Many of these streets, he said, were filled with bodies.

Although no large-scale street demonstrations have been reported in recent days—largely due to an undeclared state of martial law following the brutal crackdown—Iranians have chanted slogans against Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during the funerals of those killed. In some areas, residents have also shouted slogans from rooftops at night. 

Nationwide protests in Iran began on December 28, 2025, after economic frustrations linked to inflation, rising prices and a collapsing currency ignited demonstrations which increased throughout the country and became increasingly aimed in opposition to the regime.

Internet blackouts, conflicting sources, complicated media reliability 

Estimates of casualties vary widely due to internet blackouts and conflicting sources. Official Iranian state media reported about 3,117 deaths, including civilians and security forces, while activist groups and independent tallies place confirmed deaths at several thousand more, with some estimates exceeding 5,000 or even suggesting the toll could be far higher, potentially over 30,000, with many thousands injured or detained. 
 

Omid Habibinia is an investigative journalist for over 36 years in multi-media platforms. For seven years served as a senior international correspondent and breaking news editor for Iran International, London. Habibinia was a political prisoner during the 1988 mass execution of political prisoners in Iran.

Source: https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-884437

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Board of Peace explained: How it works and who is running it - Shimon Sherman

 

​ by Shimon Sherman

Above the General Board is the Executive Committee, the primary strategic and decision-making organ, chaired by Trump, who retains veto power.

 

U.S. President Donald Trump participates in the Board of Peace charter announcement and signing ceremony during the World Economic Forum at the Davos Congress Center in Davos, Switzerland, Jan. 22, 2026. Credit: Daniel Torok/White House. 

President Donald J. Trump signed the charter for the Board of Peace on Thursday at the World Economic Forum in Davos, marking the formal commencement of Phase 2 of the administration’s Gaza peace initiative.

According to the Trump administration, the signing ceremony, attended by regional leaders and global financial executives, transitions the focus of the U.S. strategy from the current ceasefire toward “demilitarization, reconstruction and civil administration” of the Gaza Strip.

Phase 2 establishes a new governing framework for the enclave, intended to replace Hamas and previous international aid structures with a centralized board of stakeholders. Under the terms of the charter, the Board of Peace is now the self-appointed primary authority responsible for directing reconstruction funds and overseeing the transition to a civilian government.

“The whole architecture of the current Trump plan is a very impressive effort which is unprecedented in many ways,” Col. (res.) Eran Lerman, vice president of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS), told JNS. “There have been ideas in this direction of an international oversight for many years, and this implementation is by far the most concrete and advanced of any of those programs.”

Lerman added, however, that the plan is in very early stages and “for now it only exists on paper.”

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International oversight

The newly established Board of Peace is organized into a tiered hierarchy of multiple levels of oversight committees. At its base sits the General Board of Peace, a plenary body composed of heads of state.

While invitations have been extended to more than 60 nations, including everyone from the pope to Belarusian dictator Aleksander Lukashenko, only 35 countries have so far accepted membership. Notably, most European countries, including the United Kingdom, France and Germany, have declined a position on the board, leading to significant dominance of the Middle Eastern Arab states on the Board of Peace.

This assembly serves as the foundational body for the initiative’s international legitimacy, though the charter explicitly grants the chairman-for-life, U.S. President Donald Trump, sole authority to invite new members and appoint his own successor. Under the terms of the charter, while nations may accept a three-year rotating term at no cost, a $1 billion cash contribution to the Board’s fund secures a permanent seat.

Above the General Board is the Executive Committee, the primary strategic and decision-making organ. Chaired by President Trump, who retains absolute veto power, this committee is tasked with “operationalizing” the Board’s vision. Key members include U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who serves as the diplomatic lead, and senior adviser Jared Kushner, the principal architect of the administration’s “New Gaza” vision.

They are joined by U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, former British Prime Minister Tony Blair and private equity executive Marc Rowan of Apollo Global Management. Rounding out the committee are World Bank President Ajay Banga and U.S. Deputy National Security Advisor Robert Gabriel, providing a mix of institutional financial weight and operational strategy.

The final tier is the Gaza Executive Board, which functions as the direct link between the high-level strategists and the administration on the ground. The Executive Board includes many of the lower-level members of the Executive Committee in addition to regional players such as Egyptian intelligence chief Hassan Rashad; UAE Minister of State for International Cooperation Reem Al Hashimy; Ali al-Thawadi, a senior aide to the Qatari prime minister; and Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan.

Rounding out the Executive Board are Dutch diplomat Sigrid Kaag and Israeli-Cypriot real estate developer Yakir Gabay, who is expected to oversee the physical implementation of reconstruction projects.

On the ground administration

Directly bridging the gap between the Executive Board and the local administration is Nickolay Mladenov, the newly appointed high representative for Gaza and director of the Executive Board. A Bulgarian diplomat and former U.N. special coordinator for the Middle East peace process, Mladenov is tasked with the daily synchronization of governance, reconstruction and security efforts between the civil authorities in Gaza and the Executive Board.

“Most Israelis respect and trust Nikolay Mladenov. We came to know him when he was U.N. envoy,” Lerman observed. “He has a deep understanding of the Israeli position and has a deep criticism of the Palestinian Authority and its corruption. We have no difficulty accepting this appointment.”

Meanwhile, the civil administration of the Gaza Strip has been assigned to the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG), a 15-member body of Palestinian technocrats. Under the terms of its mandate, the NCAG is responsible for restoring public services, managing infrastructure projects, and overseeing civil institutions.

The committee is chaired by Ali Shaath, a Gaza-born civil engineer who previously served as the Palestinian Authority deputy minister of planning and international cooperation, as well as the undersecretary for the ministry of transport and communications. Shaath belongs to a prominent Gazan clan with deep historical ties to Fatah.

Several key members of the NCAG have extensive histories within the Palestinian Authority’s administrative and security sectors. The interior and internal security portfolio is held by Sami Nasman, a veteran officer of the P.A.’s General Intelligence Service and a lifelong Fatah member.

Nasman, who was sentenced to 15 years in absentia by a Hamas-run court in 2016 for allegedly destabilizing the Strip, is tasked with managing Gaza’s local policing. Other members with P.A. backgrounds include Adnan Abu Warda (Justice), a former judge in the P.A.’s Supreme Constitutional Court, and Osama Al Saadawi (Housing), a former P.A. minister of state for entrepreneurship and empowerment.

The National Committee’s economy and trade portfolio is held by Ayed Abu Ramadan, the current head of the Gaza Chamber of Commerce. Abu Ramadan has also served as the director of the Palestine Islamic Bank, a financial institution that has historically had proximity to Hamas-controlled financial structures. Israeli security monitors have expressed concern that the Palestine Islamic Bank has facilitated transactions for Hamas-affiliated businesses.

While the NCAG is presented as a technocratic body, Hamas leadership in Cairo has publicly instructed its own administrative agencies to prepare to cede civil power to the committee, while simultaneously maintaining that its “military” wing will not be subject to the committee’s jurisdiction.

While the NCAG has responsibility over civil administration, the security and demilitarization component of the Trump plan is led by the International Stabilization Force (ISF), commanded by U.S. Maj. Gen. Jasper Jeffers. Jeffers, who recently served as a monitor for the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire in Lebanon, is authorized to oversee security operations and the dismantling of military infrastructure.

However, the ISF currently operates without a standing army. President Trump has confirmed that no U.S. combat troops will be deployed to Gaza, and several potential contributors, including Azerbaijan, have declined to participate. While countries such as Italy and Indonesia remain in discussions regarding troop contributions, no commitments have been finalized.

“The ISF has no committed forces and exists only on paper,” Lerman explained. He went on to note that while Jeffers “has a very impressive record,” he is “operating by himself.”

Lerman added that “even if some troops were committed, I find it very difficult to believe that the ISF will at any point be in the position to march in and actively disarm Hamas. At this stage, the ISF is not a paper tiger but just a paper document.”

The ‘New Gaza’ plan

Beyond the various administrative structures, the Trump administration is seeking to couple this effort with a broad reconstruction plan. The economic and structural blueprint for the enclave’s future was presented by senior adviser Jared Kushner, who outlined a multi-phased redevelopment project estimated to require at least $25 billion in initial funding.

The “New Gaza” master plan, designed in part by Gabay, envisions the transformation of the Strip into a free-market economic hub by 2035. The plan’s stated goals include lifting Gaza’s Gross Domestic Product to $10 billion and raising the average annual household income to more than $13,000.

Central to the proposal is the creation of a Coastal Tourism Zone along Gaza’s Mediterranean shoreline. Renderings displayed at Davos featured approximately 180 mixed-use high-rise towers, including luxury hotels, villas and commercial spaces.

The inland areas are designated for residential neighborhoods, industrial complexes and data centers, spanning more than 25 square kilometers (around 6,200 acres). Supporting infrastructure projects include a new seaport, an airport, a freight rail line connected to a regional logistics corridor, and a “trilateral crossing” at Rafah to facilitate the movement of goods between Gaza, Egypt and Israel.

The reconstruction is set to begin with a 100-day “reconstruction sprint” focused on southern Gaza. The plan prioritizes the development of “New Rafah,” which is slated to include more than 100,000 workforce housing units, medical facilities and schools, with a target completion date for initial phases within three years.

To fund these projects, the U.S. administration has announced an international investment conference to be held in Washington in the coming weeks, where the Board of Peace hopes to secure significant commitments from the private sector and regional stakeholders.

Jerusalem’s concern

Jerusalem has maintained a complex response to the launch of the Board of Peace, rooted primarily in a lack of strategic coordination between Washington and the Prime Minister’s Office. On Jan. 17, the Prime Minister’s Office issued a formal statement asserting that the announcement regarding the Gaza Executive Board “was not coordinated with Israel and runs contrary to its policy.”

This friction was exacerbated by the unilateral nature of the Davos signing, which proceeded despite Jerusalem’s requests for further clarification on the board’s mandate and specifically its oversight of Israeli security interests.

A central point of Israeli contention is the inclusion of al-Thawadi and Fidan on the Executive Board due to Turkey’s and Qatar’s long-term support for Hamas. Government officials have argued that including nations that have historically hosted Hamas leadership effectively bolsters the terror group’s political standing. Prime Minister Netanyahu echoed these concerns in the Knesset, vowing once more on Jan. 20 that “there will be no Turkish or Qatari soldiers in the Gaza Strip.”

A primary concern within the Israeli security establishment is the requirement to begin reconstruction while Hamas remains partially armed.

In a recent analysis for the JISS, Col. (res.) Professor Gabi Siboni and Brig. Gen. (res.) Erez Winner wrote that the plan’s success depends on “steadfast adherence to Hamas’s disarmament, strict enforcement at every stage, and preventing any attempt by Hamas or regional actors to undermine its implementation.”

They argued that a transition to civilian-led reconstruction while terror tunnel networks are still being mapped creates a risk where the “start of the reconstruction process” begins before Hamas’s “military” capabilities are fully dismantled.

“Trying to move this plan forward without disarming Hamas is like producing Hamlet without the prince. Without that key element there is no plan and there is no normal future for Gaza,” Lerman said.

The return of the last remaining hostage, Border Police Master Sgt. Maj. Ran Gvili, also continues to serve as a nonnegotiable prerequisite for Israel’s full participation in the plan. Under what has been termed the “Ran Gvili Clause,” the Israeli government has signaled it will not allow the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG) to fully function or reopen the Rafah crossing until Gvili’s remains are returned.

The Hostages and Missing Families Forum released a statement on Jan. 14, urging the prime minister to honor his private commitment that “Israel would not proceed to phase two of the deal until Gvili is brought home,” arguing that moving forward without his return would surrender Israel’s most significant source of leverage.

Analysts have further questioned the plan’s long-term viability, given the radicalized state of the Gazan population.

Michael Milshtein, head of the Palestinian Studies Forum at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies, has pointed out that current data shows support for “armed struggle” remains as high as 70%.

He suggested that social engineering projects through raw economic incentivization, such as the U.S. administration’s focus on $40 billion in investment, may fail to achieve de-radicalization.

Milshtein criticized the “misplaced belief that reality and public perception can be engineered mechanically, that economic incentives alone can reshape existence, and that these are reliable foundations for policy, a belief that was one of the core failures exposed on October 7.”

This assessment suggests that without a fundamental shift in Gazan civil discourse, the “New Gaza” vision may face a persistent internal threat that no amount of capital can neutralize. 

 

Shimon Sherman is a columnist covering global security, Middle Eastern affairs and geopolitical developments. With a focus on investigative journalism and expert interviews, his work offers critical insights into the most pressing issues shaping international relations and security.

Source: https://www.jns.org/board-of-peace-explained-how-it-works-and-who-is-running-it/

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Anti-ICE agitators adopt Palestinian tactics, including martyrdom - David Marcus

 

​ by David Marcus

Alex Pretti brought gun and extra ammunition before allegedly intervening in immigration arrest

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The highly organized groups of agitators in Minneapolis, coordinated online to harass federal immigration agents (or anyone in an SUV it seems), have begun to employ tactics that any Israeli would recognize from decades of terrorism in their country.

The basic idea employed by both the Minnesota leftists and Hamas, is to be as menacing as possible to authorities, including through acts of violence, and then, when the authorities strike back, to claim victimhood and martyrdom.

The tragic and needless death of Alex Pretti on Friday morning, was a terrible example of this phenomenon, one that, sadly and unconscionably, is being not just tolerated by Minnesota officials, but shamelessly encouraged.

This undated photo provided by Michael Pretti shows Alex J. Pretti, the man who was shot by a federal officer in Minneapolis on Saturday, Jan. 24, 2026.  (Michael Pretti via AP)

The video of the shooting is vague, and it will take time and testimony to piece together the chain of events that led to Pretti’s death. But there are a few facts that seem clear, and they all point to an organized effort to antagonize and provoke law enforcement.

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Pretti left home Friday with a gun and extra ammunition and a plan to impede federal agents, which is exactly what he seemed to be doing when he allegedly intervened in the arrest of a suspect.

It is reasonable to assume that Pretti brought the gun and extra clips in anticipation of a potential confrontation with law enforcement. Can we know that for sure? No. Is it more likely than not? Absolutely.

(Fox News; DHS)

The key point here is that no matter how much one may cherish the Second Amendment, nobody has a right to carry a gun while committing a felony, because to do so obviously puts everyone involved in harm’s way.

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Pretti’s defenders are disingenuously arguing that he was merely enjoying his rights as a gun owner while protesting, which would be perfectly fine, except there was no protest. Instead, he was involved in direct, illegal action to interfere with the feds.

This is why reports, from all sides, say that the crowd of hundreds did not gather until after the shooting, which is exactly what happened in the case of Renee Good, who was also breaking the law with a deadly weapon, in that case, her SUV.

A Border Patrol member pepper sprays observers after getting into a car accident on Blaisdell Avenue on Jan. 21, 2026 in Minneapolis, Minn. (Stephen Maturen/Getty Images)

The tactic here is clear as day: organize hordes of people to harass federal agents all day, then cross the line into breaking the law in order to create a flash point, even if that means people have to die.

NOEM SAYS MINNEAPOLIS SUSPECT COMMITTED ‘DOMESTIC TERRORISM,’ ACCUSES WALZ, FREY OF INCITING VIOLENCE

This is straight out of the Palestinian playbook: cause just enough harm to provoke a reaction, then claim the reaction is disproportionate and evil, as in, "We just sent a suicide bomber, you used missiles, no fair!"

Let’s be clear, if you choose to fight with federal agents while they attempt to arrest a criminal and you bring a gun to that fight, you stand a very, very good chance of getting shot. 

But this was more than just a bad decision by Pretti. These types of actions have been cynically sanctioned by local elected officials such as Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey, Gov. Tim Walz, and state Attorney General Keith Ellison.

MINNESOTA AGITATORS STALK, PELT BORDER PATROL AGENTS WITH FOOD AND SPIT AT GAS STATIONS, DHS SAYS

To date, none of them have firmly told citizens to stop organizing to impede federal agents. It's hard not to come to the conclusion that the deaths are good politics for them in their one battle after another against President Donald Trump.

Frey, and Walz and Democrats in general will hide behind the well-worn phrase, "peaceful protest," but will never say exactly what peaceful protest includes.

Mayor Jacob Frey and Governor Tim Walz split image. (Getty Images)

Does peaceful protest include storming churches? Does it include using your car to hinder investigations? Does it include carrying a gun while committing a felony? They won’t address any of this, and the only reason why, not that makes any sense, is that they like the results.

MOB VIOLENCE IN MINNESOTA ISN’T FREE SPEECH — IT’S GROUNDS FOR THE INSURRECTION ACT

After the death of Good, conservatives pleaded with Democrats to tell their followers to stand down from illegally impeding agents. We warned, very specifically, that it would cause more death. But Frey and Walz just didn’t care.

CLICK HERE FOR MORE FOX NEWS OPINION

Sadly, we were right. 

One lesson that Israel has learned in fighting an enemy that wants to or is willing to die, is that the reaction to Israelis defending themselves is widespread moral outrage and condemnation. The other lesson is that they have to do it anyway.

This is the conundrum that the Trump administration finds itself in today. They could throw in the towel and leave the Twin Cities to their own devices, but doing so would be the end of federal law.

No, the administration must hold firm, in the face of public outrage, in the face of midterm worries, and in the face of the shameless harassment of their agents.

It is up to Minnesotans if they wish to create more martyrs to their cause, and sadly, given the support for lawlessness seen from Frey and Walz, we can expect more, sooner rather than later.

 

David Marcus is a columnist living in West Virginia and the author of "Charade: The COVID Lies That Crushed A Nation."

Source: https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/david-marcus-anti-ice-agitators-adopt-palestinian-tactics-including-martyrdom

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Why Saudi Arabia is Embracing Anti-Semitism Again - Tikvah

 

​ by Tikvah

Now that Saudi Arabia does not perceive Iran as a threat, they are not so interested is "making nice" with Israel? Seems that way...

 

In June 2025, American B-2 bombers destroyed Iran's nuclear facilities in Operation Midnight Hammer. Five days before the strike, Middle East expert Hussein Aboubakr Mansour made a counterintuitive prediction: devastating Iran wouldn't lead Arabs to embrace Israel. And that’s exactly what’s happened. 

Seven months later, Mansour sat down with Jonathan Silver to explain how he sees his prediction taking shape. Saudi Arabia hasn't just declined normalization—it's begun weaponizing anti-Zionism against the UAE, the first Abraham Accords signatory. 

Mansour explains how a "dual vacuum"—the collapse of Iran's axis of resistance and America's retreat from regional leadership—has unleashed fierce competition among Middle Eastern states. Each now competes using distinct advantages: Saudi symbolic authority, UAE logistical power, Qatari narrative control, Turkish military force, and Israeli escalation dominance. This makes anti-Zionism strategically valuable and will intensify anti-Semitism in Western institutions as wealthy powers vie for influence. Mansour offers a sobering assessment of the Abraham Accords and how this may affect world Jewry. 

 Chapters:  

00:00 - Introduction  

04:19 - The Abraham Accords and Israel's Outsider Status  

12:22 - The Shift to Post-Liberalism in U.S. Foreign Policy  

15:50 - The Dual Vacuum: Iran's Collapse and America's Retreat 

 19:01 - Syria, Yemen, and the Saudi-Emirati Rivalry 

 21:41 - Comparative Advantages: How Middle Eastern States Compete  

27:17 - Saudi Arabia's Symbolic Power and Palestinian Instrumentalization  

29:38 - The Qatari Narrative Empire and Western Institutions  

38:41 - Iran's Future: Two Scenarios for the Region  

41:38 - Israel's Path Forward: Breaking Regional Assumptions  

48:30 - The Growing Utility of Anti-Zionism in the U.S.  

 

Tikvah

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q4wAW3mM6oo

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Follow the flow: Inside Iranian narco-trafficking in Iraqi Kurdistan - explainer - Obsidian Research Bureau

 

​ by Obsidian Research Bureau

In recent years, the Sulaymaniyah governorate in eastern Iraqi Kurdistan has become a hub for Iranian narco trafficking.

 

Kurdish internal security forces stand guard after seizing a quantity of captagon pills in Qamishli, Syria, March 25, 2025.

(photo credit: orhan qereman/reuters)

The Kurdistan Region of Iraq has always been a major node for regional and international trade, heading both east and west. But, in recent years, the Sulaymaniyah governorate in eastern Iraqi Kurdistan has become a hub for Iranian narco trafficking. The trafficking of heroin from Afghanistan heading to Europe through Turkey is not a new problem, but in recent years, the trafficking of synthetic drugs, such as Crystal Methamphetamine and Captagon, has dramatically increased.

The flow of narcotics between Iran and the Sulaymaniyah governorate of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) has evolved from a secondary transit concern into a critical regional security crisis. Sulaymaniyah serves as a primary gateway for the "Balkan Route" and the flourishing synthetic drug trade, driven by economic desperation, geopolitical maneuvering, and the porous nature of the Zagros Mountains.

Iranian narcos

Synthetic drug production and trafficking in Iran involves a complex overlap of small-scale local "cooks," cross-border smuggling networks, and alleged high-level involvement from state-embedded actors. While the Iranian government officially maintains a strict anti-drug stance, frequently carrying out mass seizures and executions, international observers and intelligence reports highlight a different reality behind the scenes.

The most significant entity linked to large-scale synthetic drug activity is the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). While the IRGC officially combats trafficking, they have been repeatedly accused by the US Treasury, the UN, and independent investigators of facilitating the transit of narcotics by "taxing" shipments in exchange for safe passage. The IRGC controls Iran’s borders and ports.

In 2012, the US Treasury designated IRGC-Qods Force’s General Gholamreza Baghbani as a narcotics trafficker, alleging he allowed Afghan traffickers to move drugs through Iran in exchange for moving weapons to the Taliban.

Kurdish internal security forces display seized captagon pills in Qamishli, Syria, March 25, 2025. (credit: REUTERS/Orhan Qereman)

Profits from the drug trade are reportedly used to fund regional proxies like Hezbollah (which has its own extensive history with Captagon and synthetic drugs) and militias in Iraq and Syria.

Historically, Iran was a major producer of "Shisheh" (crystalline methamphetamine). However, following a domestic crackdown and tighter regulations on precursor chemicals (like pseudoephedrine), production has largely shifted. Much of the methamphetamine now found in Iran, and trafficked out of Iran, is produced in Afghanistan using the Ephedra plant.

While the raw "liquid meth" or plant-based ephedrine often comes from Afghanistan, it is frequently refined into high-purity crystal form in laboratories within Iran’s border provinces, such as Sistan-Baluchistan and Khorasan. In urban areas like Tehran, synthetic drugs are also produced by decentralized, small-scale criminal networks. These criminal groups often focus on the domestic market, where methamphetamine has become the second most popular drug after opium.  Many of these local operations survive by bribing low- and mid-level law enforcement, allowing them to operate in plain sight within impoverished neighborhoods.

Recent reports from 2024 and 2025 (such as those from the Institute for Science and International Security) have raised concerns that IRGC-affiliated universities and research centers are exploring the large-scale synthesis of pharmaceutical-based agents (PBAs) like fentanyl and medetomidine. The concern is that these are being developed not just for the illicit market, but as potential "incapacitating" chemical weapons for military use.

Sulaymaniyah governorate

The 500-kilometer border between Iran and the Kurdistan Region, specifically the stretches near Sulaymaniyah, is defined by rugged, mountainous terrain that is notoriously difficult to police. For centries this border has been the lifeblood of local economies through the kolbar system: Kurdish porters who carry goods on their backs across mountain passes.

While the majority of kolbar activity involves legitimate consumer goods (electronics, cigarettes, food) to circumvent sanctions and high taxes, the infrastructure they provide has been co-opted by the Iranian narco traffickers. Small-scale smuggling routes are now integrated into larger, hierarchical networks that transport high-value narcotics.

To understand the narcotics landscape between Iran and Sulaymaniyah, we must look at the specific geography of the "Green Corridor" and the chemical shift toward synthetic drug production.

The border between the Iranian province of Kurdistan (Sanandaj) and the Iraqi governorate of Sulaymaniyah is a sieve of informal crossings. Trafficking logic follows the path of least resistance, favoring mountain passes over official border gates.

• The Penjwen-Bashmakh Hub: The Bashmakh border crossing is the official gateway, but the surrounding district of Penjwen is the actual staging ground. Smugglers use the dense forests and steep valleys to move goods. By 2025, Penjwen recorded a 300% increase in narco trafficking cases.
• The Southern Flank (Halabja/Hawraman): To the south of Sulaymaniyah, the Hawraman mountain range provides high-altitude cover. This route is favored for smaller, high-value shipments of Crystal Meth (Shabo) because the terrain is inaccessible to heavy vehicles, requiring only human couriers (kolbars) or drones.
• The Northern Divert (Raperin): In the north of the governorate, near the Qandil Mountains, routes often intersect with areas controlled by various non-state armed groups. These "political" routes are often used for bulkier shipments of Captagon moving from Iraq and Syria back into Iran for regional distribution.

Iran remains the primary transit point for Afghan opiates. Heroin and opium enter Iran via its eastern border and are moved across the country to Sulaymaniyah. From here, they are trafficked toward Turkey and onward to European markets. Sulaymaniyah’s proximity to major Iranian cities such as Sanandaj and Kermanshah makes it a traditional hub for these shipments.

But the most alarming trend in recent years is the explosion of crystal methamphetamine. Crystal meth has flooded Sulaymaniyah as it is trafficked into Europe and the Gulf states. UNODC reports from late 2024 and 2025 indicate that Iraq is transitioning from a transit zone to a consumer market. There is increasing evidence of "conversion labs" near the border, where chemical precursors, often smuggled in from Europe, are used to refine meth on-site to reduce the risk of long-distance transport.

The most significant development in 2024–2025 is the transition from importing finished drugs to domestic refining within the border areas. Traffickers have realized that moving liquid precursors is less risky than moving finished crystal meth. Traffickers are increasingly setting up "kitchen labs" in the rural outskirts of Sulaymaniyah and the surrounding villages.

Unlike Western meth, which relies on diverted pharmaceuticals, the meth coming through Iran often uses the Ephedra plant, which grows wild in the region. This makes the supply chain nearly impossible to cut off at the chemical source. Precursors like P2P often enter the KRI via legitimate industrial channels (cleaning supplies, plastic manufacturing) before being diverted to illegal labs near the Iranian border.

While Syria remains the primary producer of Captagon, Iranian-linked networks have begun utilizing the Sulaymaniyah route to move these amphetamine-type stimulants (ATS) toward the Gulf States.

The traffickers’ tactics combine traditional and modern methods bypass traditional border security.

• Aerial Smuggling: In 2025, Iranian and Iraqi officials reported an increase in the use of drones and paragliders to transport high-value packages of meth and heroin over the mountains, avoiding land-based checkpoints.
• Militia Involvement: Reports suggest that various armed groups and "shadow" networks, some with alleged ties to regional political factions and the IRGC, facilitate the movement of drugs. These groups provide "protection" for shipments in exchange for a share of the profits, which helps fund their operations amid tightening international sanctions.
• Corruption: The high profit margins of narcotics allow traffickers to bribe underpaid border officials on both sides, ensuring that "green lanes" are kept open during specific windows of time.

The local social impact 

The influx of drugs has had a devastating impact on the social fabric of Sulaymaniyah and its border towns like Penjwen. Once considered a "clean" transit point, Sulaymaniyah now faces a public health crisis. Local authorities in 2024 reported a fourfold increase in drug-related arrests compared to previous years. In border districts, the drug trade provides a lucrative, albeit dangerous, alternative to the stagnant formal economy. This creates a "narco-economy" where local youth are recruited as couriers, further destabilizing the region.

The response to this crisis has been divided for various reasons. On the one hand, there is high-level diplomatic cooperation; on the other, deep-seated institutional friction.

In late 2025, the Iraqi Interior Ministry and Iranian anti-narcotics directorates began conducting more frequent joint raids. One notable operation in December 2025 resulted in the seizure of 64 kg of high-purity narcotics in the Iranian city of Abadan, which is near the border with Iraq's southernmost Basra province.

Both Iran and the KRI maintain strict "war on drugs" policies, with Iran frequently employing the death penalty for traffickers. However, these punitive measures have failed to address the root causes: poverty and the high demand for narcotics in Europe and the Gulf states.

Effective policing is often hampered by the complex relationship between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in Erbil, the local PUK-led administration in Sulaymaniyah, and the central government in Baghdad. Disagreements over border control jurisdiction frequently create security vacuums that traffickers exploit.

As of 2026, the Kurdish security forces of the Asayish and the Peshmerga are struggling with three main tactical and technological gaps:

• Commercial Drone Detection: Small commercial drones are now used for "scouting" ahead of kolbars. If a drone sees a security force patrol, the couriers stash the drugs in pre-arranged mountain caches (marked by GPS) and retreat.
• Large Drone Detecting and Interception: Larger drones are being used to transport shipments over unpassable border terrain and also internally to circumvent security checkpoints.
• Penetration of Encrypted Finances: Payments for large shipments are rarely made in cash. The use of Hawala (traditional trust-based banking) has been augmented by Tether (USDT) and other stablecoins, making it difficult for regional authorities to freeze the assets of "Narco-Lords" operating from within Iranian or Iraqi cities.

The Iran-Sulaymaniyah narcotics corridor is a microcosm of the broader challenges facing the Middle East: the intersection of economic sanctions, the "meth-ification" of global drug markets, and the use of illicit trade to fund non-state actors. While security operations have become more frequent, the mountainous terrain and the immense profitability of the trade suggest that Sulaymaniyah will remain a central node in the regional drug ecosystem for the foreseeable future. 

Obsidian Research Bureau

Source: https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-884440

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