by Gordon G. Chang
China, by Thursday, could have a new leader. Or a new round of purges.
Tellingly, the most senior of the nine officers axed on the 17th was General He Weidong, the second-ranked vice chairman of the Commission and Xi Jinping's No. 1 loyalist in the PLA. The general had gained prominence as Xi's top enforcer in the military.
Gen. He was not the only officer who backed Xi and has now been taken out of the military's leadership ranks. Moreover, it is difficult to identify any Xi adversary who was purged in the last 18 months.
It is unlikely, at a time Xi Jinping appears to be fighting for political survival, that he would remove his most important supporter in the military. It is far more probable that Xi has lost control of the People's Liberation Army, especially because the removals strengthen Gen. Zhang, Xi's adversary.
China, by Thursday, could have a new leader. Or a new round of purges.
On October 17, China's Ministry of National Defense announced that the Communist Party's Central Committee and Central Military Commission had, after investigations, removed nine senior officers from their posts in the People's Liberation Army.
The stunning announcement occurred on the eve of the long-delayed Fourth Plenum of the Party's 20th Central Committee, scheduled to start tomorrow, October 20, and continue for four days. On the agenda are crucial economic matters, including the country's 15th Five-Year Plan, which covers the rest of the decade, 2026-2030.
Analysts are also looking for hints whether the Party, at the plenum, will announce changes in its leadership.
If Xi Jinping, the Party's general secretary and chairman of its Central Military Commission, was responsible for the just-announced removals of the flag officers, he will undoubtedly emerge from the plenum as strong as ever, perhaps even stronger.
If, as is more likely, Xi's enemies arranged the removals, China will almost certainly have a new leader soon. Xi's position would be untenable.
Who, then, was responsible for the announced changes?
Both the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times reported that Xi was the one who removed the nine officers.
That conclusion, at least at first glance, seems logical. After all, Xi has been powerful for a long time, so it is natural that journalists ascribe every significant action in China to him. In fact, at one time he had almost complete control over the People's Liberation Army, which reports not to the Chinese state but to the Communist Party. Xi's major reorganization of the PLA, conducted in the middle of last decade, and his periodic "corruption" purges gave him the opportunity to install loyalists.
"In most systems, repeated purges of senior military leaders would trigger crisis or resistance," Craig Singleton of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies told the Times. "Xi's ability to churn and burn through top generals without sparking significant institutional pushback reveals the strength, not fragility, of his rule."
Xi may be purging his own people, but that is not the most likely explanation. Beginning July 9, 2024, PLA Daily, the Chinese military's main propaganda organ, ran a series of articles praising "collective leadership," a clear criticism of Xi's demand for complete obedience.
These articles were written by those aligned with the No. 1-ranked uniformed officer, Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Gen. Zhang Youxia, and could not have appeared if Xi were in complete control of the military. Zhang is known to be a political enemy of Xi.
Tellingly, the most senior of the nine officers axed on the 17th was General He Weidong, the second-ranked vice chairman of the Commission and Xi Jinping's No. 1 loyalist in the PLA. The general had gained prominence as Xi's top enforcer in the military.
Gen. He was last seen in public on March 11. On Friday, the Defense Ministry reported that he had been expelled from the Party pending ratification at a plenary session of the Central Committee, and his case had been transferred to a military procuratorate "for review and prosecution."
On October 18, PLA Daily issued an editorial stating Gen. He and the eight others had been "disloyal." The publication indirectly referred to them as "hidden tumors."
Gen. He was not the only officer who backed Xi and has now been taken out of the military's leadership ranks. Moreover, it is difficult to identify any Xi adversary who was purged in the last 18 months.
"The continuation of the purges is hard to explain if Xi dominates the political system because his supporters are now being purged," Charles Burton of the Prague-based Sinopsis think tank told this author in July, after a previous round of firings. "Sometimes the simplest explanations are the most credible. The simplest explanation is that Xi's enemies—not Xi himself—removed Xi's loyalists."
The People's Liberation Army is the most important faction in the Party. "Mao Zedong famously said, 'political power grows out of the barrel of a gun,' a principle that may now be turned against Xi Jinping," Burton, also a former Canadian diplomat in Beijing, remarked on Friday.
"In the armed forces, dissent is growing amid his regime's economic and social failures," Burton continued, referring to Xi. "The Fourth Plenum poses a direct threat to his leadership. Even if he survives this meeting, the internal pressures suggest his grip on power is more fragile than ever."
Throughout this year, there have also been reports of continuing struggles in Communist Party civilian circles.
It is unlikely, at a time Xi Jinping appears to be fighting for political survival, that he would remove his most important supporter in the military. It is far more probable that Xi has lost control of the People's Liberation Army, especially because the removals strengthen Gen. Zhang, Xi's adversary.
"Party elders believe they cannot allow the leadership struggle to continue beyond the Fourth Plenum," Blaine Holt, a retired U.S. Air Force general who follows Chinese politics, told Gatestone after the Defense Ministry's announcement.
China, by Thursday, could have a new leader. Or a new round of purges.
Either way, there will be blood on the floor, at least figuratively.
- Follow Gordon G. Chang on X (formerly Twitter)
Gordon G. Chang is the author of Plan Red: China's Project to Destroy America, a Gatestone Institute distinguished senior fellow, and a member of its Advisory Board.
Source: https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/21996/xi-losing-control-of-china
No comments:
Post a Comment