by Yoav Limor
Lady Luck smiled on Bat
Yam on Sunday. Take away a fraction of the passengers' vigilance and
this morning's headlines would have tallied a terror attack's casualties
and fatalities. The bomb in question was a relatively small one, but in
the confinements of a crowded bus the blast would have been lethal.
It is highly likely
that this was not the work of a lone individual. Unlike the majority of
terror attacks that have taken place over the past few months in Judea
and Samaria, Sunday's attack appears to be the work of a terror cell:
someone had put the explosive device together and someone had smuggled
it into Israel, plant it on the bus and flee.
This was the work of at
least two people, perhaps more, and perhaps they were part of a larger
infrastructure, a cell which is planning future attacks. The immediate
concern of security forces on Sunday was that the device might have been
one in a series of bombs set to explode in different locations across
the country.
The defense
establishment has been hunting for a lead since Sunday afternoon. If the
explosives were detonated using a cell phone, than a possible lead is
already evident; and while the details themselves are under a gag order,
the nature and composition of the explosives are a lead in and of
themselves.
Between these leads,
the available intelligence and potential arrests and interrogations,
authorities will get to the bottom of this incident quickly.
The last time we saw an
explosion aboard a bus -- on Nov. 21, 2012, the last day of Operation
Cast Lead -- the perpetrator was arrested at his home, in the
Palestinian village of Beit Liqya, near Ramallah, the very same day.
On one hand, such swift
action is an indication of the Shin Bet's reach inside the Palestinian
territories. On the other hand, Sunday's attack was a Shin Bet failure.
The investigation into the explosion in Bat Yam will have to determine
why the preparations leading up to the attack were not discovered.
Unlike in cases
involving a lone terrorist whose actions are nearly impossible to
predict, a terror cell has several members and many potential
intelligence "suppliers." A cell means chatter, and chatter provides
intelligence that in turn provides opportunities to foil attacks.
Regardless of the
ongoing investigation, Sunday's attack once again presented Israel with
the question of what exactly is going on in Judea and Samaria. The
situation has yet to escalate to an intifada, but nevertheless, the
situation on the ground today is thoroughly different than the one that
presented itself merely six months ago.
Even if the latest
string of terror attacks is nothing more than a coincidental grouping of
sporadic incidents, as the Shin Bet and the military claim, it is
obvious that something is going on. The intelligence indicates that the
overall picture is changing.
This picture, however,
remains unclear. Israel says that not only is the Palestinian Authority
not responsible for these attacks -- it has no interest in them, as the
Palestinian people do not want any escalation that might result in a
"Palestinian spring," which would only leave them worse for wear.
Still, the alarm bells are sounding more often and this trend is only likely to grow, presenting us with a new situation.
Yoav Limor
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=6753
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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