by Dr. Alon Levkowitz
Pyongyang is changing its strategy towards Seoul in order to earn credit that it can use to ease sanctions without sacrificing deterrence.
Medals of the XXIII Olympic Winter Games 2018 in Pyeongchang South Korea, image via Wikimedia CC
BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 707, January 4, 2018
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The
good news is that the 2018 Winter Olympics, which will be held in
PyeongChang, South Korea, might serve as a venue for confidence-building
measures towards negotiations between South and North Korea. The bad
news is that North Korea has no intention of giving up its nuclear and
missile capabilities. Pyongyang is changing its strategy towards Seoul
in order to earn credit that it can use to ease sanctions without
sacrificing deterrence.
On February 9, 2018, the Winter Olympic Games will
begin in PyeongChang, South Korea. South Korean President Moon Jae-in
has said he hopes Pyongyang will overcome the various political and
security issues and join the Games. The Olympics could set the scene for
confidence-building measures (CBM) that ease tensions on the Korean
Peninsula ahead of restarting negotiations between Pyongyang and Seoul.
The door to the Winter Olympics was left open for
Pyongyang, even after it missed the deadline. In a speech at the start
of 2018, Kim Jung-un stated that barring unexpected developments, North
Korea will indeed send a delegation.
According to analysts, North Korea’s participation
in the Games would be part of a “peaceful offensive” strategy that is
itself part of a dual strategic policy: on the one hand, to strengthen
North Korean deterrence against Washington; and on the other, to promote
the “pacific” side of North Korea to gain credit in Seoul and
Washington without giving up the nuclear arsenal.
For South Korea, as for any state that wins the
right to host the Olympics, the event serves as a venue in which the
hosting country can present to the world its economic, technological,
sports, and tourist attractions, as well as its cultural achievements.
The global media coverage of the Games gives the state an opportunity to
project a positive “brand.” Seoul hopes the PyeongChang Games will
allow it to present South Korea in its best light – without focusing on
the nuclear or missile crisis with North Korea.
One of Seoul’s biggest concerns is that Pyongyang
will not abide by the Olympic spirit of peace among nations and might
conduct long-range missile (ICBM) or nuclear tests either before or
during the Games. If it does so, Pyongyang will seize global attention
and embarrass both Washington and Seoul. For the time being, Pyongyang
plans to attend the Games because it believes it is in North Korea’s
interest to be there, but in the case of Kim Jong-un, anything can
change at any moment.
President Moon offered to postpone the upcoming
South Korean military exercise with US forces in the region in order to
ease tensions on the Peninsula. US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson
stated a few times that Washington is willing to come back to the
negotiations table with Pyongyang. North Korea did not respond to any of
these offers.
Washington and Seoul are extending a hand to
Pyongyang, but at the same time, they have begun to prepare the military
option, and Washington passed new economic sanctions on North Korea at
the UNSC. Moscow and Beijing, which have not supported increasing
sanctions in the past, did not veto them this time – but it is by no
means assured that they will fully implement them, as they have failed
to do so in the past.
If the economic sanctions on North Korea are fully
implemented, the economy will be downsized in the long run and
Pyongyang will be forced to respond. It will provoke or offer tactical
concessions, but has no intention of giving up its nuclear or missile
capabilities.
Another deterrent layer is the messaging of
President Donald Trump and National Security Advisor General HR
McMaster, who have stated that the military option is on the table. The
mixed signals sent by the US raise concerns in the region that either
Pyongyang or Washington will misunderstand the other and a conflict will
erupt unintentionally.
The PyeongChang Winter Olympics could conceivably
be the venue for the beginning of incremental change in the Korean
Peninsula – but Pyongyang is playing a different ballgame. Its main
rival is Washington, not Seoul.
Kim Jung-un hinted in his New Year speech that
Pyongyang has reached its final goal of obtaining credible nuclear
deterrence versus the US. North Korea will now seek ways to negotiate
with Washington on a new agreement that will ease the sanctions by
offering tactical concessions without sacrificing its nuclear and
missile capabilities. Attending the 2018 PyeongChang Olympics is a way
for Pyongyang to begin to pursue this strategy.
Whereas over the past few months, Pyongyang has
ignored offers by President Moon, it will be now willing to entertain
offers to begin negotiations. Kim understands that in doing so, he can
maximize profits without paying much of a price.
BESA Center Perspectives Papers are published through the generosity of the Greg Rosshandler Family
Source: https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/2018-winter-olympics-north-korea/
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Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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