by Jonathan Spyer
BEHIND THE LINES: Iraq is already part of the northern crescent of threats facing Israel. The US presence, broader policy regarding Iran makes Israeli action in Iraq more complicated than in Syria.
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DEMONSTRATORS CLIMB a structure during an anti-government protest in Baghdad, last week.
(photo credit: THAIER AL-SUDANI/REUTERS)
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A previously unknown Iraqi Shia militia calling itself Ktaib al-Sabiqoun issued a warning to Israel this week. In grammatically challenged Hebrew, the statement read, “If you bomb us, we will bomb you.” It is likely that this statement was in fact issued by one of the established pro-Iranian militias. It is common practice for these organizations to adopt and discard new names when engaging in areas beyond their usual zones of activity.
Ktaib al-Sabiqoun’s warning comes in the wake of a recent comment by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
hinting that during the recent fighting in Gaza, Iran sought to send an
armed drone toward Israel from “Iraq or Syria.” The statement also
coincides with growing concerns in Washington regarding the increasing
intensity of the Shia militias’ campaign against the US presence in
Iraq, specifically in the area of drone attacks. At the public level in
Iraq, meanwhile, protests took place this week against the ongoing
murder campaign by the Shia militias against Iraqi civil society
activists and oppositionists.
All
these sets of events are linked. The Iranian strategy for Iraq is
clear, and resembles in its essentials the project already close to
completion in Lebanon. It is exemplified by the targeting of the three
enemies noted above – namely Israel, the US/West, and the domestic
opponents of Iran’s local proxies.
The
intention, along the lines of what has already been achieved in
Lebanon, is that the formal structures of representative government
should remain, but should be emptied of any meaningful content.
Political military structures in the service of Iran will enjoy freedom
of action and will possess military capacities superior to those of the
nominal forces of the state.
The
latter, meanwhile, will themselves be thoroughly penetrated by the
Iranian power structure. Political forces hostile to this project will
be disposed of, or intimidated into, silence. The territory of the
country will then be used both for the transportation of men and
materiel in the direction of Israel, and for the deployment of missiles
capable of reaching the territory of the Jewish state. The Iranian
intention, as seen in Lebanon, Syria and Yemen, is not to create a
strong, coherent client state in Iraq. Rather, Tehran wants fragmented,
dysfunctional structures within which the only powerful, cohesive
element is the Iran-supported force itself.
At
present in Iraq, this project is underway but is not yet near
completion. A significant barrier to the realization of Tehran’s goals
is the remaining US military presence in the country. There are strong
indications at present that the long smoldering Shia militia campaign
against the US is set to increase in intensity. The intention is to
pressure the US into departure.
In
the latest incident, a rocket was fired at the Ain al-Asad base last
week. US personnel are stationed at the base. Following the incident,
Iraqi authorities arrested Qasim Muslih, commander of the Shia militias
in Anbar Province. In response to the arrest, the militias then
conducted a show of strength against the Green Zone, the center of the
international presence in Baghdad. Heavily armed Shia militiamen
traveling in military vehicles seized control of entry and exit points
to the zone, holding them for several hours before dispersing.
A
number of articles in the US media in recent days have noted growing
concerns in the US defense establishment regarding the tempo of militia
attacks using drones or missiles against US facilities and personnel in
Iraq. The Daily Caller political-opinion website quoted “security
sources” who reported that the Pentagon intends to ask President Joe
Biden for permission to carry out counter strikes against militia
targets in Iraq. According to the report, the White House currently
insists on green-lighting all US responses to militia attacks, and “The
Administration is looking hard at a broad range of responses to Shi’ite
militia aggression against Americans in Iraq.”
AGAINST
THE background of the militia campaign, popular protests against the
militias and their campaign of assassinations resumed this week.
Gathering under the slogan “Who killed me?” demonstrators in Baghdad on
May 25 protested the killing of civil society activist Ihab al-Wazni in
the majority Shia town of Karbala on May 9.
According
to one demonstrator interviewed by the Middle East Center for Reporting
and Analysis (MECRA) in Baghdad, “Al-Wazni is dangerous for them and
their interests, so they killed him to protect themselves. These groups
are always out there with guns, and they are continuing targeting
people, and they are the only ones permitted to hold weapons. They are
responsible for killing demonstrators and activists. The forces that are
coming on the streets are supported by Iran and they are taking orders
from them.’”
Another
protester, Ali al-Khafaji, told MECRA, “Agents have come from east of
the border to destroy Iraq.... Wilayi (Pro-Iranian) militias and hired
killers from Iranian intelligence are the ones who came from the east...
Iranian Revolutionary Guards and Iranian Ministry of Intelligence.
These two entered Iraq to make bloodshed here and to destroy it.”
Since
large-scale protests began in October 2019, around 600 demonstrators
have been killed. An additional 82 Iraqis have lost their lives in
targeted killings. At least one demonstrator was killed when security
forces opened fire on the crowd in Tahrir Square on May 25. Participants
cl
aimed that the police commanders who gave the order to open fire are
themselves members of the Badr Organization, a pro-Iran militia with a
strong presence in the Iraqi police and security forces.
It
is unclear if determined US action against the threat of the Shia
militias will take place. The administration is engaged in negotiations
on the nuclear issue with Tehran. It is likely that the determination to
sign a new deal as soon as possible will prevent a determined and
comprehensive response.
For
Israel, events in Iraq are of deep relevance. Iran has already deployed
missiles in the deserts of western Iraq, in the hands of its militias,
which have Israel within range. The Iranian-made Zolfaqar missile has a
claimed range of 750 km. (466 miles), putting Tel Aviv within its range
if it is deployed in western Iraq. The distance from al-Qaim on the
Iraqi-Syrian border to Tel Aviv is 632 km (393 miles).
In
the event of the “1st Northern War,” as Israeli defense planners call
the scenario of a general war between Israel and Iran with its proxies,
Iraq would play an important role in the transfer of weaponry. The Shia
militias would be used to provide additional manpower for the Iranian
side, as seen in the Syrian civil war. Missiles would almost certainly
be launched from Iraqi soil.
Hence,
whatever the origins and the seriousness of Ktaib al-Sabiqoun’s
message, and the statement by Netanyahu that preceded it, Iraq is
already part of the northern crescent of threats facing Israel. The US
presence and broader US policy regarding Iran makes Israeli action in
Iraq more complicated than similar actions in Syria, or potentially in
Lebanon. As Israeli planners assess the Gaza events of recent weeks in
light of the key scenario of a future war from the North, the growing
threat from Iraq is likely to be a significant factor in their
deliberations.
Jonathan Spyer
Source: https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/the-growing-threat-facing-israel-from-iraq-670071
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