by Seth J. Frantzman
Iraqi Kurdish leaders are seeking greater influence in Baghdad as Prime Minister Ali al Zaidi forms a new government amid rising regional tensions.
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The Kurdish leadership in the Kurdistan Regional Government of northern Iraq is seeking to work with the new prime minister of Iraq.
The autonomous Kurdistan Region is deeply divided in its politics. The two parties, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), are based in different regions and led by different families.
The KDP is run by the Barzani family and is dominant in Erbil and Dohuk in the western part of the Kurdistan Region. The PUK is run by the Talibani family and is dominant in the eastern areas near Iran and in the city of Sulimaniyeh.
The KDP, the larger party, has been unhappy in the past with its ability to influence Baghdad. This feeds a perception that the PUK, which is considered to have warmer ties with Iran, is able to navigate in Baghdad more easily, because Baghdad is dominated by pro-Iranian Shi’ite political parties.
A new Baghdad, a new page for Kurdish leadership
Now that businessman Ali al-Zaidi has been named as the prime minister in Baghdad, the Kurdish leadership would like to turn a new page. KRG President Nechirvan Barzani is reaching out to Baghdad. His relative, KRG Prime Minister Masrour Barzani, is also playing a key role in those efforts.
“Kurdistan Region President Nechirvan Barzani is respected by allies and adversaries alike,” Kurdistan Region-based news channel Rudaw Media Network reported. “When news broke of a drone attack targeting his residence in the northern city of Duhok near the Turkish border on March 28, many world leaders expressed relief that he was not present at the time of the incident. Iran, the United States, the United Nations secretary-general, and Gulf states all condemned the attack. In the United Arab Emirates, he is personally received by President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan when he visits, and over the years, he has built close ties with Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.”
“With Iraq and the Kurdistan Region increasingly caught in the crossfire, the 59-year-old President Barzani appears to be lending a helping hand to Baghdad’s incoming prime minister as he tries to navigate these delicate times and works to form a new cabinet,” the report said.
This matters because Iraq is a key country in the region. Even though Iran has deep influence in Iraq these days, if we look at the arc of history, Iraq has a major role to play.
First of all, Iraq sits on an ocean of oil, and it continues to develop new oil fields. While much of its oil currently cannot be exported due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Iraq is exporting oil via the Kurdistan Region and also via Syria. This means Iraq may help pioneer new oil routes in the region.
In the 1950s, Iraq was a key player in the region when it was dominated by statesman Nuri al-Said and King Faisal II. Faisal II was related through his father to the leaders of Jordan.
Under the Saddam Hussein regime in the ’70s and ’80s, Iraq became an economic and military power. It had a relatively advanced healthcare system and had rapidly industrialized.
War with Iran and then the invasion of Kuwait, however, led to disaster. The Saddam regime was overthrown in 2003, and this led to Iranian influence growing in Iraq.
Iran's current views on Iraq
Iran views Iraq as a “near abroad,” meaning that it wants Iraq to be weak and divided and filled with pro-Iranian militia. The US and its partners in the region – including Turkey, Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan – want a stable Iraq.
As such, the US and Iran have both backed the new prime minister of Iraq. Zaidi is a kind of unknown quantity who emerged suddenly after five months of deadlock in Baghdad since the election last November.
For the Kurdistan Region, these are important times. It has suffered about 840 attacks by Iran and Iranian-backed militias. The attacks have targeted Kurdish Iranian groups and the US and UAE consulates.
US forces have largely withdrawn from Syria and most of Iraq and are now concentrated in the Kurdistan Region. The US, however, appears to be drawing down funding for the Kurdish Peshmerga.
The KDP and PUK understand they need to seek a future in talks with Baghdad and the region. As such, leaders in Erbil, capital of the Kurdistan Region, have been working with Turkey, the UAE, and other states.
There is a lot of political discussion taking place in the Kurdistan Region.
“Three Kurdish opposition parties said in a joint statement on Wednesday that they were not represented by the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) during a meeting with Iraq’s Coordination Framework,” Rudaw reported Thursday. “The Kurdistan Islamic Union (KIU), the Stance Movement (Halwest), and the Kurdistan Justice Group (Komal) issued the clarification after claims circulated on PUK-affiliated media and an X account linked to senior PUK member Darbaz Kosrat Rasul, who attended Wednesday’s meeting, stating he had represented ‘the majority of Kurdish parties’ at the Coordination Framework’s Supreme Committee session.”
This is important for the KDP and talks with Baghdad. Kurds are expected to receive five ministries in the new government. They also hold the presidency of Iraq. The new president is a member of the PUK.
The KDP will expect compensation in the form of ministries. The KDP has said it would end a boycott of parliament sessions in Baghdad.
Kurdish parties seek more influence in Baghdad
As the Kurdish parties seek more influence in Baghdad, Iran is showing it will continue attacks on Kurdish Iranian opposition groups in Iraq. Recent attacks targeted Komala and PDKI, two Kurdish groups.
“Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched a new drone attack targeting a Kurdish opposition group in the Kurdistan Region, the dissident group said in a Thursday statement, despite reports that the United States and Iran are inching closer to an understanding that could end the regional war and pave the way for broader nuclear negotiations,” Rudaw reported Thursday.
The new attack targeted the PDKI on Wednesday evening. It struck near Koya, where PDKI has a facility. Koya is a town roughly halfway between Erbil and Sulimaniyeh.
The PDKI often has been closer to the KDP, and they share origins going back a century. Kurds have been fighting for independence since the 1940s. They fought in Iran and later in Iraq, and these struggles are linked.
Today, Kurds are seeking more representation in the new Iraqi government. They also want an end to the attacks by Iran and Iranian-backed militias.
Many issues are at stake. As the Iraqi government forms, it will be important to pay close attention to whether Zaidi will seek to stabilize Iraq, or whether he will continue to be hostage to Iranian maneuvers.
Seth J. Frantzman
Source: https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-895460
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