by Yaakov Lappin
While Russia will not be able to satisfy everyone, it does understand that it will need to leave each side with “half of its desires”
Vladimir Putin and Benjamin Netanyahu, photo via Office of the President of Russia
BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 1,135, April 8, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Russia holds the cards
in Syria. Jerusalem and Tehran must spell out their desires for the
Syrian arena to Moscow, who in turn must find a way to leave each side
with “half its desires.”
Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu and Russian
President Vladimir Putin have been engaged in a flurry of discussions
recently, at least some of which are likely tied to Iranian activities
in Syria.
The meetings come in the shadow of recent reports
of a major Israeli airstrike on March 28 that targeted an Iranian
weapons warehouse near the northern Syrian city of Aleppo. The strike
reportedly resulted in large blasts and casualties.
Russia leads a pro-Assad military coalition in
Syria, of which Iranian forces are a central part. It also maintains a
deconfliction channel with Israel to avoid unintended clashes between
its air force and the Israeli Air Force, both of which are active in the
Syrian arena.
Putin has also attempted to play the role of
mediator between Israel and Iran, seeking to douse the shadow war raging
between them on Syrian soil. Israel, for its part, is determined to
disrupt Iran’s plan to turn Syria into a war front against it.
Netanyahu flew to Moscow last Thursday for a
meeting with Putin, just five days before Israel’s April 9 elections. On
April 1, Netanyahu and Putin held a phone conversation to talk about
“military cooperation issues,” according to the Kremlin, as well as
“pressing bilateral issues” and “the situation in the Middle East
region.”
On February 27, the two leaders met in Moscow to
discuss Syria. Netanyahu said the two sides reached an agreement on how
to coordinate between their militaries. They also apparently agreed on a
goal of getting “foreign troops” to leave Syria, according to
Netanyahu.
While Russia will not be able to satisfy everyone,
it does understand that it will need to leave each side with “half of
its desires,” Professor Uzi Rabi, director of the Moshe Dayan Center for
Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University, said.
To achieve this, Moscow will get every actor to
spell out “what is really important to it, and here, Israel has an
opportunity to define the range and perimeter of Iran’s actions in
Syria,” he added. “In general, this is a new situation that the region
is not used to. The Russians are managing this game with many bargaining
chips, and Israel will have to adapt itself to the new rules of the
game.”
Doron Itzchakov, a research associate at the
Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, agreed that the current
situation is good for Moscow.
“The Russian interest is to position itself as the
‘final judge’ in Syria, and this situation, in which Netanyahu runs to
Putin and the Iranian side runs to him, is comfortable for them. They
are comfortable with being the ones balancing the scales,” he said.
Iran, for its part, will be closely monitoring
Israel’s contacts with Russia and will adapt its policies in Syria
accordingly. “The Iranians will be watching out for Russia’s policy in
Syria, to see how they need to change their tactics. Iran has no plan to
release its grip on Syria, but it will change tactics so as not to lose
momentum,” Itzchakov said.
One recent example of how Iran has adapted its
takeover efforts in Syria is the way it has embedded its military
personnel and weaponry in sites run by the official Syrian Arab Army.
This has not stopped Israel from reportedly striking such targets when
it detects them.
Itzchakov stressed that Iran’s decisions in Syria
cannot be disconnected from Tehran’s wider geopolitical ambitions or
from internal power struggles that are raging inside the Islamic
Republic.
He cited a visit in March by Iranian President
Hassan Rouhani to neighboring Iraq as an example of this linkage. The
goal of that visit was to develop an economic corridor to bypass
American sanctions, said Itzchakov.
The visit also boosted the prestige of Rouhani,
who is facing major criticism at home from the rival conservative bloc
and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).
“The economic corridor Iran wants in Iraq is tied
to its desire for an economic corridor to Lebanon and its ties to Syria.
One cannot separate these things,” said Itzchakov.
In addition, Iran has been able to build up armed
forces in all of these countries — Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon — and has
turned them into deeply influential political forces in Iraq and
Lebanon. Iran plans to do the same in Syria.
But the element responsible for this activity is
mainly the IRGC and General Qassem Soleimani, commander of the overseas
Iranian Quds Force unit, who is competing with Iran’s FM, Muhammad
Zarif, for control of Iran’s regional policies, said Itzchakov.
“Out of this internal rivalry emerges the story of
Iranian activities in Syria,” he added. “The IRGC’s power as a
decision-maker in geopolitical, economic, and diplomatic areas is
rising.”
The internal power struggle is making “Iran more
sensitive to Syria,” said Itzchakov. “Even when done in opposition to
the popular wishes of the Iranian people, the IRGC makes its own
decisions, including in Syria. The IRGC wants to set the agenda.”
This is an edited version of an article that was published on JNS.org on April 4, 2019.
Source: https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/putin-israel-iran-syria/
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