Between proxies and a new attack on Israel: Iran’s dilemma - analysis - Seth J. Frantzman

 

by Seth J. Frantzman

Iran operates via proxies in several countries and territories, including Yemen, Lebanon, Iraq, and the Gaza Strip.

 

THE FLAGS (from right) of Iran, Hezbollah, and Lebanon are on display in Tehran. The Lebanese people should not allow Iran to build a Shi’ite crescent from Tehran to the Mediterranean Sea; they should stop suffering for the sake of Hezbollah, the writer urges.

(photo credit: WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY/REUTERS)

Iran’s response to the Israeli strikes on Iran on October 26 has been complex. It has sought to downplay the damage while claiming it may respond at the “appropriate” time. It has also sought to rally international support for its position. Iran’s messaging is mixed, claiming it does not want war but reserving a “right” to respond.

Iran likes to be in this position where the ball is in its court regarding the regional battlefield. It’s worth recalling that it did the same thing in April and between July and October 2024. Essentially, Iran has learned that keeping the region on edge is to its benefit.

As Iran bides its time, it is also continuing to empower proxies in the region. Iranian state media brags about the successes of its proxies in attacks against Israel and also threats against the US. For instance, Iranian state media claimed that a US base at Tanf in Syria was targeted earlier this week. The implication is that Iranian-backed militias were behind the attack.

At the same time, Iranian media has claimed that Hezbollah has carried out a wave of attacks throughout the week of October 27. Every day has seen Hezbollah rocket fire striking northern Israel. This has led to deaths and injuries in Majd al-Krum, Tamra, and Tarshiha. In the morning of October 30 a long range missile was also fired from Lebanon. In addition, several drone attacks were launched.

Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar attends a rally marking the 35th anniversary of the movement's founding, in Gaza City December 14, 2022. (credit: IBRAHEEM ABU MUSTAFA/REUTERS)

Iran's multiple fronts

Iran is also focused on the Gaza front. Iranian media says that numerous Israeli soldiers have been killed in Gaza. Iran wants to believe that Hamas is continuing successful attacks on the IDF in Gaza, even as Hamas suffers many setbacks.

On the Yemen front, it appears the Houthis are also trying to increase attacks. Brigadier General Yahya Saree, in a statement, emphasized that in the framework of the 5th stage of the battle, the Yemeni drone unit, in a unique operation, targeted the industrial zone of the Zionist enemy in Ashkelon in the south of the occupied territories,” Iran’s IRNA media reported this week. The group has used drones and other means in its attacks.

“The Yemeni Armed Forces had conducted three operations against three ships in the Red Sea, the Arabian Sea, and the Bab el-Mandeb,” the report said. The group targeted three ships: SC Montreal, Maersk Kowloon and Motaro. The Houthis used drones, a cruise missile, and ballistic missiles in the attacks.

According to another report, Iraqi militias also carried out an attack targeting Israel using a drone. This illustrates that Iran has mobilized all the fronts against Israel in the wake of the October 26 airstrikes. As Iran weighs its direct response, it wants to keep up the pressure from Yemen, Gaza, Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria. Iran openly brags about these attacks. 

Seth J. Frantzman

Source: https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-826780

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