by Nicholas Ballasy
"To hold debt at 100% of GDP, approximately $4 trillion is needed over five years, or $9 trillion over the decade," analysis says.
The national debt is projected to rise from 100% of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at present to 120% of GDP by 2035, according to the latest figures from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), a nonpartisan fiscal policy think tank, based on baseline budget data from the Congressional Budget Office.
The CRFB released an adjusted August 2025 baseline, which found that annual deficits will "remain above 6% of GDP throughout most of the decade," which is "more than twice the 3% target advocated by some policymakers."
The budget watchdog group estimated that bringing the federal deficit down gradually to 3% of GDP would require around $3.5 trillion in savings over five years, including interest, or $7.5 trillion over ten years.
"To hold debt at 100% of GDP, approximately $4 trillion is needed over five years, or $9 trillion over the decade," read their analysis.
The CRFB found that achieving a deficit equal to 4% of GDP would require about $5 trillion in savings while balancing the full federal budget, including interest, would require about $15.5 trillion in total savings.
The watchdog group noted that economic growth alone cannot solely take the place of major fiscal policy changes to get the fisacl situation in the U.S. under control. The CRFB recommended that the U.S government implement "super PAYGO" as well as trust fund reform and other spending reduction initiatives.
"Under Super PAYGO, every dollar of new spending or tax cuts would be offset by at least two dollars of revenue increases or spending reductions, thus ensuring that new tax cut and mandatory spending legislation also includes deficit reduction," the CRFB said.
CRFB noted that "faster growth can make these fiscal goals easier." However, the watchdog group said that "thoughtful pro-growth deficit reduction and reform is likely the best way to put the country on a sustainable fiscal path."
The CBO recently released a separate estimate which found that the Trump administration's tariffs will cut the U.S. federal deficit by $4 trillion through 2035.
The analysis found the tariffs would lead to $3.3 trillion in direct tariff revenue and $700 billion in savings from lower interest payments on borrowing. These projections are revised from CBO's earlier estimates. In June, the CBO had estimated that tariffs would offset budget shortfalls by $3 trillion.
Nicholas Ballasy
Source: https://justthenews.com/government/congress/national-debt-rise-100-gdp-present-120-2035
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