by Barry Rubin
There
are some subtle issues coming out of the Syrian civil war for Israel.
It is clear that Israel is neutral on the war, that it isn’t going to
get dragged into it, and that the longer the war goes on it doesn’t
damage Israeli national security.
It
should be equally clear, however, that in the end Israel wants the
rebels to win. Syria’s regime is supported by Hizballah, Iran, and the
Assad government. These are the greater of the two evils. The coup
against Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood regime greatly reduced the threat of
Sunni Islamism.compared to that of Iran.
Again,
it should be underlined, however, that the difference isn’t perceived
as huge. Military institutions are generally more favorable to the
rebels, given their anti-Iran nuclear weapons’ emphasis. Other agencies
remember, however, that a Sunni Islamist Syria will still be a problem.
There are several other aspects, however, of the Syria situation for Israel.
Hamas: With Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood thrown out of office, Hamas poses much less of a threat.
Instead
of having Egypt as a patron, Egypt is now a greater enemy than it was
under Mubarak. That then breaks up the issue of a Brotherhood Egypt,
Hamas, and Syria.
Egypt:
And speaking of Egypt, the transformation for Israel’s strategy almost
approaches the victory of the 1967 war except this is not a victory over
Egypt but a tremendous enhancement of cooperation. The threat of the
dissolution of the peace treaty and a potential new war has been
replaced by a prospect of deeper peace and more strategic help.
The
draining of terrorist resources and energies. Syria is now a target, as
well as Iraq for Sunni terrorists; and now do is Egypt, too.
The
Golan Heights: Israel will not come down from the strategic Golan for
”forever.” With either Sunni or Shia extremists in charge of Syria,
the anti-Israel stance of Syria is going to be strong under any
conceivable government. At the same time, that Syrian government will be
weaker. The United States is in temporary or permanent eclipse and
cannot possibly—and will not—exercise major leverage on Syrian. You can
bet that without a utopian transformation of the region Israel will
remain on the Golan.
Lebanon:
It seems equally clear that Hizballah has very much reduced support
from the Lebanese, Syria, Sunni Islamist leaders, and others. Given this
situation, Hizballah cannot attack Israel, certainly not while its best
troops are tied down in Syria. And if the rebels win in Syria, they
will take on Hizballah, also supporting Lebanese Sunni Islamists.
Hizballah will be too busy fighting against fellow Arabs to start a war
with Israel.
Kurds:
This is the best moment for Kurds politically in modern history, with a
ceasefire with Turkey and its help in Syria; a de facto state in
northern Iraq though it will not be a full-fledged state; and autonomy
in Syria. Central and southern Iraq are booming with terrorism but
Kurdistan (the Kurdish Regional Government) is booming with prosperity.
The
fact is that the Kurds do not share in the Arab blood feud with Israel.
In both Iraq and Syria, the Kurds want good relations and commerce with
Israel. Whether the dealings would be overt or covert, this new
political relationship is going to be a significant factor in the Middle
East.
Druze:
The Druze have a tougher time since they do not have a strategic
boundary with a friendly country as do the Kurds. Nevertheless the Druze
are at a historical turning point. They have given their loyalty to the
Syrian regime, with the Golani Druze showing special devotion fueled
largely by fear and the fate of relatives on the other side of the
border.
Now,
however, they see the Assad regime in trouble. At this point the
loyalty must be questioned. Would a Sunni Islamist regime be so kind to
them? On the one hand, the Druze have served not with the rebels but
with the regime. Second, when all is said and done the Druze are
infidels, even worse former Muslims centuries ago.Of course, the Druze
still in Syria will claim their devotion to the Sunni Islamist regime in
the hope of not being massacred.
But Druze from the Golan have asked from Israeli authorities about bringing in refugees
from Syria. Might persecuted Druze take Israeli citizenship and take
the step of joining their fate, as individuals or collectively, with
Israel as their cousins across the border did in 1948?
Iran:
Obviously, if the regime loses in Syria that will weaken Iran. But
there’s something more here. If Iran loses any thought of Tehran bidding
for Arab hegemony because the split between Sunni and Shia is so bloody
and passionate. But, if Iran wins the bitterness has the same effect.
The dominant conflict in the region is now the Sunni-Shia one.
And
with Middle East hegemony out of Iran’s reach, Iran has less reason to
threaten Israel or to consider using nuclear weapons against it. Why
would Tehran do so when it will not impress the Arabs, in fact in the
middle of an all-out battle with the Sunni Arabs?
Christians: While Israel only has about a 2 percent Christian minority (about 150,000 people), there seems to be some change. A priest and
a young woman have spoken for support despite harassment and an Arab
Christian party is forming. These will probably not catch on with large
numbers of people but with the conflict against Israel being joined by
the conflict against Christian Arabs–including real intimidation of
Christians on the West Bank by Muslims must have some effect. This has
been added to with a war on Christians in Egypt (Copts
will be big targets in the coming Islamist insurgency and the new
government won’t provide much protection), Syria, Iraq, and the Gaza
Strip. Where else do Christians have a safe haven in the region?
Finally,
Syria has done something momentous in regional terms. It has broken the
myth of the “Israel card” or of “linkage.” You can still argue that an
Arab ruler can make political capital by blaming Israel or that solving
the Arab-Israeli or Israel-Palestinian conflict will fix everything in
the region.
This article is published on PJMedia.
Barry Rubin
Source: http://www.gloria-center.org/2013/07/how-the-syrian-civil-war-and-egyptian-coup-positively-transform-israels-strategic-situation/
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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