by Dan Margalit
Out of
the north the evil will break forth, as expected. Hezbollah is keen. It
has apparently lost over a thousand fighters battling in Syria, after
coming to the aid of the unpopular Bashar Assad.
Hezbollah is a natural
enemy of the Islamic State group, which has supplanted it as the face of
religious radicalism, and it sat by in almost complete silence during
Operation Protective Edge as Israel was battering Hamas. Hassan
Nasrallah's supporters expect more from him, something more violent.
Therefore he has begun, with increasing frequency, answering the
expectations of the extremists, but on a scope that will not drag him
into a third Lebanon war.
Over eight years after
sparking the Second Lebanon War, Nasrallah himself should remember what
he said when the war ended, that had he known what Israel's response
would be in the Dahiyeh neighborhood of Beirut in southern Lebanon, he
would not have abducted IDF reservists Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev.
It's possible the passing years and his failures in other arenas have
helped him forget the consequences of provoking Israel.
The IDF has noticed the
growing restlessness in the north. When Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon
and IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz toured the border area, it
was not as part of their routine visits, but to gauge the atmosphere in
the northern sector from up close. The shooting and wounding of a
Lebanese soldier on Sunday
has not been linked to the Tuesday's roadside bombings. The solider was
searching for drug smugglers, mistakenly crossed the border and was
wounded. Hezbollah, however, had an interest in causing friction, which
it did yesterday by detonating the explosives it had set along the
border fence a while ago.
Israel believes it is
highly unlikely Hezbollah wants to open another front against Israel
right now. It is mired in a frustrating campaign alongside Assad, and
its mission in Syria exceeds its capabilities. The recent fights in the
Middle East, however -- from the Second Lebanon War in 2006 through all
the flare-ups and operations in Gaza -- happened against the
expectations of the leaders, apparently from both sides of the fence.
Nasrallah does not want
a war, but in July this was also believed to be true of Hamas leaders
Ismail Haniyeh and Khaled Mashaal, yet the shooting spiraled out of
control regardless. Not to mention that in the Middle East the words
"quiet will be met with quiet" are perceived, not as a practical
proposal in the spirit of compromise, but as a sign of weakness on the
part of the side making the proposal.
Under these conditions
Nasrallah and his advisers may believe that Israel's ability to
withstand another missile campaign is rather limited, and that following
Protective Edge it will do whatever it can to prevent another
conflagration. Such estimates, however, are always different than the
final bill.
Israel has no interest
in another military campaign. It has even less of an interest though in a
trickle of rockets, which includes the infamous roadside bombs from
those days in the security zone in southern Lebanon. Israel also doesn't
have another 50 days to spare while the situation gradually
deteriorates like it did in Gaza.
Quiet is preferable, but our
patience is on a short a fuse. Hezbollah -- and the Lebanese government
along with it -- need to take into account that Lebanon's ability to
withstand an Israeli military onslaught is less than that of the
Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, and that Israel will not allow its
patience, nerves and restraint to be tested for very long. Not all
escalations happen gradually, if, heaven forbid, the need for urgency is
created.
Dan Margalit
Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=10193
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.
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