by Yigal Carmon
The Russians believe that they can mislead Jerusalem. But so far, Israel has elected to act according to facts, rather than being taken in by Russian duplicity, and is striking Syrian targets that endanger Israel.
The Iranian forces and Iran-supported
militias are expanding in Syria and approaching the Israeli border. This
is happening with the full support and facilitation of Russia, even
though Russia knows very well that Iran's aim is to fight the State of
Israel and eradicate it, and that its expansion in Syria will
significantly advance that aim. While Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov
calls Israel's demand that the Iranians maintain a distance of 40 km
from its border "not realistic" – after Iran has come 2,000 km to reach
this point – Russian Defense Minister Shoygu has the temerity to come to
Israel and entreat it to refrain from defending itself.
The Russians believe that they can mislead
Jerusalem. But so far, Israel has elected to act according to facts,
rather than being taken in by Russian duplicity, and is striking Syrian
targets that endanger Israel.
While Syria and Iran enjoy full Russian
support, Israel lacks U.S. backing against the Russia-Iran threat. The
U.S. does not even stand for itself in Syria – just a few days ago,
Russia, like a rogue state, violated the deconfliction zone agreement
that it itself had signed with the U.S. Therefore, Iran's expansion into
all of Syria up to the Israeli border will soon be completed, with the
full support of Russia, and with an eventual withdrawal of all U.S.
forces from Syria.
Senior Iranian officials and military commanders have already clarified that after Syria, Israel is next.
Israel will have to fight its war against
the Iran-Russia-Syria axis alone. It will need America's diplomatic
backing, military equipment, and economic assistance, but never American
troops. But as matters stand, the actual U.S. strategy vis-à-vis Iran's
expansion in the region is contrary to its rhetoric, which opposes this
expansion (the U.S. agreed, both in the Astana talks and in the
deconfliction zones agreement with Russia, to legitimize Iran's presence
in Syria). This means that American support for Israel against the
Iran-Russia axis is not assured. The U.S.'s Russia policy also does not
guarantee that the U.S. will stand with Israel against the Iranian
threat that is enabled by Russia.
Israel is well equipped to answer
existential threats if it must – even if they are either directly or
indirectly Russian. At the same time, Russia's military power may prove
to be overestimated. Russia acts as if it is a world power, but its
advanced weaponry may fail against Israeli-American technological
superiority. This may be why Russia is in no hurry to launch its
missiles when Israel strikes in Syria. President Obama even called
Russia a regional power.
This is not to say that there is no
existential threat to Israel. Clearly, the Iran-Russia-Syria-Hizbullah
axis does pose such a threat, but Israel can overcome it, if it must.
However, its ability to face the threat depends on early recognition
that Russia is part of the enemy axis.
The inability of many in Israel and the
West to perceive Russia as the enemy stems from the belief that Russia
has no reason in the world to be Israel's enemy. Therefore, they ignore
what they see happening in Syria, and instead provide complicated
explanations about an inherent conflict of interests between Russia and
Iran. This is a psychological failing from which Israel suffered
bitterly in its history, as have other nations.
So why would Russia align itself politically and strategically with Iran?
Russia views itself as a superpower
fighting to reclaim its former status. Indeed, for Russia the enemy is
not Israel. Russia's true adversary is the U.S., and Israel is an
historic ally of that adversary. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union,
an increasingly embittered Russia has escalated its attempts to regain
its past glory. The Russian regime hates the U.S. (to understand this,
it is sufficient to read Putin's address a few days ago at the annual
Valdai Club conference; see MEMRI Russian Media Project report).
But Russia cannot fight the U.S. directly.
America is in the North Sea, and the best Russia can do is dispatch
planes to buzz the U.S. Navy there. NATO is expanding eastwards and
Russia's forces are no match for it – as attested to by General Staff
Col. (ret.) Mikhail Khoradenok on Russian television, to the dismay of
his audience: "We have 200 warplanes, while NATO has 3,800. We have
1,600 armored vehicles and APCs, while NATO has more than 20,000...
Thus, anyone who talks about our capability to wage a conventional war
against NATO is clearly too hotheaded" (see MEMRI Russian Media Project Clip #5902, February 14, 2017). Russia's single antiquated smoke-belching aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov is no match for the U.S. Navy, with its 10 advanced carriers.
Russia cannot take on America directly,
and it is using Iran as its proxy to humiliate America, undermine its
status, and expel it from the region. At the same time, Russia can use
Iran as a bargaining chip to obtain what it needs the most: a lifting of
the sanctions that were imposed after Russia annexed Crimea and
dismembered Ukraine. Russian regime-affiliated think tanks and media
explicitly stated in early 2017 that Russia's alliance with Iran could
be a bargaining chip; see reports from the MEMRI Russian Media Project,
below.[1]
Unless and until Russia and the West
strike a deal on lifting these sanctions in exchange for Russia's
abandoning its alliance with Iran – which is completely unrealistic –
Russia will cling to this alliance. This is because Iran reinforces
Russia's superpower aspirations and pretensions, and shares, and serves,
Russia's drive to humiliate and undermine the U.S. Any harm done to
Israel in the process does not figure in Russia's strategic
considerations vis-à-vis the U.S. Worse, even if Russia were to change
direction at any time in the future, Iran's Russia-enabled expansion in
Syria, and its proximity to Israel, will remain, and will serve as the
Islamic Republic's launching pad for its war against Israel.
Source: https://memri.org/reports/russia-iran-axis-existential-threat-israels-security-%E2%80%93
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