by Yigal Carmon and A. Savyon
Israel's strategic activity, as declared and executed – i.e., that it will not permit Iran to expand militarily in Syria – presents Tehran with a difficult challenge
In
light of Israel's recent military operations against Iran's military
expansion in Syria, comprising strikes against strategic Iranian and
Syrian targets such as Iran-controlled airfields, missile bases, and
drone bases, Iran now faces a strategic question: whether to respond to
these attacks, when doing so could lead to all-out conflict with Israel.
Iran's long-term goal in Syria is to expand militarily and economically there, giving it control across the country – which will in turn enable it, when the time comes, to act effectively and decisively against Israel. It is in Iran's interest that it will face all-out war with Israel only after it has finished doing so, and after U.S. forces have left Syria. Other reasons for Iran to postpone responding to Israel's operations include Iran's shaky economic situation and the devaluation of its rial on the free currency market in recent weeks; U.S. President Donald Trump's upcoming May 12, 2018 decision regarding the future of the JCPOA nuclear deal; the fragility of the regime of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad; and Tehran's inability to ensure that Russia will stand alongside it militarily against Israel.
But Israel's strategic activity, as declared and executed – i.e., that it will not permit Iran to expand militarily in Syria – presents Tehran with a difficult challenge: whether to respond immediately to it, which may lead to all-out war, as expressed by several lower-level Iranian officials, Iran-sponsored Shi'ite militias such as Hizbullah, and media affiliated with the resistance axis, or whether Tehran would be better off continuing to overlook the Israeli attacks for now so as not to risk what it has accomplished so far in Syria and in the region. Support for this latter position is evident in Iranian spokesmen's toning down their statements, postponing the Iranian response to "an appropriate time and place in the future."
It should be noted that Tehran did not respond to the second of Israel's two attacks deep inside Syria on February 10, 2018, which struck numerous Syrian and Iranian targets; nor did it respond to Israel's April 9 strike on the T-4 air base near Homs in central Syria, in which seven Iranian officials of the Iranian drone array there were killed. It also did not respond to two additional attacks early on April 17, attributed to Israel by Syrian and Lebanese (i.e. Hizbullah) spokesmen and by Russian spokesmen, on the Sharyat air base near Homs and the Dumair air base near Damascus, regarding which Syria at first said that it had intercepted all the missiles but one that struck Dumair base, but afterwards changed its story and claimed that a false alarm caused by "a joint electronic attack" by Israel and the U.S. had triggered Syria's air defense system.
As noted, Tehran's response so far to Israel's attacks has been restrained, both militarily and with regard to statements about them. However, in contrast to its behavior following Israel's February 10 attack on the drone base and command and control vehicle, and following Israel's second attack that day against numerous Iranian and Syrian targets in Syria – that is, refraining from revealing its losses in the media – following the April 9 attack on the T-4 air base it did report its losses. This could reflect the Iranian regime's willingness to expose itself to pressure from the Iranian public to respond with counter-operations.
Left to right: Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) commander Ali Jafari, and IRGC Qods Force commander Qassem Soleimani, at Ashoura mourning ceremony at Khamenei's home. (Source: Kayhan, October 1, 2017)
Tehran's thunderous silence in light of Israel's repeated attacks on strategic Iranian and Syrian targets strengthens assessment that Tehran prefers, as of now, to overlook the Israeli attacks. But it is possible that Iran thinks that the serial Israeli operations are preventing it from accomplishing its strategic goals – that is, expanding in Syria – and that there is, therefore, no escape from all-out conflict with Israel now, not after Iran has established itself there. It is also possible that this restraint is a cover for secret preparations for an attack on Israel.
Israel has, with its operations, made it clear to Iran and Russia that it is ready for war now. An Iranian response to Israel could lead to an all-out Iran-Israel war. The fact that we are waiting to see how the Iranians will respond to Israel's operations is proof that the next war has already begun, and that it can be stopped only if Iran is deterred from carrying out its threats.
Past experience shows that Iran has always refrained from direct confrontation with the Gulf states, with Israel, and with the U.S., despite its far-reaching threats to wipe Israel, the U.S. military, and Saudi Arabia off the face of the earth.
An example of the dilemma faced by the Iranian regime leadership is an analysis by the conservative Iranian daily Javan,
which is affiliated with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps
(IRGC). It stated in its April 9, 2018 editorial, written right after
the Israeli strike: "According to [Israeli] Gen. Amiram Levin,
it is clear that the Zionists want to create a strategic and
fundamental change in Syria. Furthermore, they do not agree with
President Trump's decision to withdraw his forces from Syria... The
attack on the T-4 [base] shows that
the Zionists have started down a very dangerous path that must be
seriously fought, before the situation in Syria gets worse than it is
today."[1]
In its April 16, 2018 editorial, the Kayhan daily, the regime mouthpiece that is known for its vociferously hawkish anti-Israel, anti-U.S., and anti-Saudi position, was vague about the expectation of an Iranian response, explaining that Iran was not answering the Israeli move – which it called a plot aimed at provoking an Iranian reaction in order to keep the U.S. in Syria. It stated: "In the matter of the Zionist regime's attack on the T-4 base in Homs, that caused the deaths of seven Iranians who were defending the holy places... there is an interpretation according to which the Zionists' short-term aim in attacking Iranian elements... is to force Iran to respond and thus to involve the U.S. in the battle. This plot was neutralized thanks to Iran's wisdom. In any event, and in any situation, there is no doubt that this crime will not remain unanswered..."[2]
Confirmation of this interpretation by the regime mouthpieces is the fact that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, IRGC commander Ali Jafari, and deputy commander Hossein Salami have said nothing about a response to the Israeli attack, even though they usually make militant statements about Israel. Iranian regime officials' statements were aimed primarily against the U.S., U.K., and France, in the context of their attack on the Assad regime's chemical weapons facilities. It should be noted that Supreme Leader Khamenei, who mentioned the tripartite attack on April 14, several hours after it took place, called the leaders of the three countries "criminals" but did not directly mention the Israeli attack on Iranian targets in Syria.
Khamenei then responded to Israel's claims that Iran was expanding militarily in Syria, saying: "When it is said that 'Iran is conquering and wants to occupy this particular place [Syria],' these words are meaningless, counter to reality, and mendacious. No, we have no desire to occupy [Syria], and we also have no occupying view regarding any point in the world. We also have no need [to occupy land]; thank God, the Iranian nation has a large, flourishing country with potential. Iran is present in Syria and in the Middle East in order to fight the evil [forces of repression] that existed and still exist there."[3]
Other Iranian spokesmen were also generally vague with regard to the timing of the operation and who would carry it out. Ali Akbar Velayati, senior advisor to Khamenei who was at the time visiting Syria, was relatively reticent on the Israeli T-4 air base attack, saying, on April 10: "Certainly this crime by the Zionists will not remain unanswered."[4]
At an April 16 press conference, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bahram Qassemi backed down somewhat on the issue of the timing of an Iranian response, and even assigned the task of a response to the resistance forces. He said: "Sooner or later, the Zionist regime will be on the receiving end of a suitable response in the matter of these attacks, to the point where it will regret what it did. It cannot make such a move and then sit in a corner unpunished... For Israel, the era of hit-and-run [attacks] is over, and the resistance forces are capable of giving a response appropriate for these crimes at the required and suitable time."[5]
While Qassemi said that vengeance would come from "the resistance forces," the leaders of Hizbullah, the main resistance faction that is subjugate to Iran, placed the responsibility for a response to Israel on Iran, stressing repeatedly that it was Iran that would decide on, and launch, the reprisal.
On April 13, Hizbullah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah said: "Of course, it is the Iranian officials who will decide what they will do [in response], and they will say what they will do. I do not want to be the one to talk about them or on their behalf... I want to say to the Israelis that they must know... that they have brought themselves into direct conflict with Iran... This is an incident that cannot be handled with a simple [response] such as happened with many other incidents that took place here. This is an historic turning point..."
Addressing Israel, he said: "Do not make a mistake in your assessments of the new path of conflict that you started and launched, and in the framework of which you are face to face and in direct [conflict] with the Islamic Republic of Iran, period."[6]
Hossein Dalirian's April 9 tweet (Source: Twitter.com/HosseinDalirian/status/983434149351567360)
Two days later, Dalirian tweeted: "My recommendation to you [Israel] is to equip [your] shelters. Accounts must be settled, and that is final." The "equip [your] shelters" was rendered by Dalirian in Hebrew as "arm shelters," and the tweet included a photo of a long line of Israel soldiers.[12]
Hossein Dalirian's April 11, 2018 tweet (Source: Twitter.com/HosseinDalirian/status/984176844894294019)
Following the U.S.-U.K.-France attack in Syria, Dalirian tweeted, on April 14: "Now it is our turn and [the turn of] IRGC vengeance for Israel's missile attack on the T-4 base." The tweet included the same photo.[13]
Hossein Dalirian's April 14 tweet. (Source: Twitter.com/HosseinDalirian/status/985073801607155712)
Also regarding Israel's T-4 air base attack, on April 11, Ayatollah Nouri Hamdani called on the Iranian leadership to be "courageous" and act against the Zionist regime, that was so daring that it had caused the death of Iranian commanders: "The Zionist regime is so daring that it has caused the deaths of six Iranians. We cannot remain silent in the face of this. What is important for us is to be steadfast before the Zionists and the Americans, and not remain silent. We must not be silent or indifferent to the crimes of the Zionists and America; we will not be silent. They will gird themselves with more courage. We must be bold, and not silent."[14]
Iran's long-term goal in Syria is to expand militarily and economically there, giving it control across the country – which will in turn enable it, when the time comes, to act effectively and decisively against Israel. It is in Iran's interest that it will face all-out war with Israel only after it has finished doing so, and after U.S. forces have left Syria. Other reasons for Iran to postpone responding to Israel's operations include Iran's shaky economic situation and the devaluation of its rial on the free currency market in recent weeks; U.S. President Donald Trump's upcoming May 12, 2018 decision regarding the future of the JCPOA nuclear deal; the fragility of the regime of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad; and Tehran's inability to ensure that Russia will stand alongside it militarily against Israel.
But Israel's strategic activity, as declared and executed – i.e., that it will not permit Iran to expand militarily in Syria – presents Tehran with a difficult challenge: whether to respond immediately to it, which may lead to all-out war, as expressed by several lower-level Iranian officials, Iran-sponsored Shi'ite militias such as Hizbullah, and media affiliated with the resistance axis, or whether Tehran would be better off continuing to overlook the Israeli attacks for now so as not to risk what it has accomplished so far in Syria and in the region. Support for this latter position is evident in Iranian spokesmen's toning down their statements, postponing the Iranian response to "an appropriate time and place in the future."
It should be noted that Tehran did not respond to the second of Israel's two attacks deep inside Syria on February 10, 2018, which struck numerous Syrian and Iranian targets; nor did it respond to Israel's April 9 strike on the T-4 air base near Homs in central Syria, in which seven Iranian officials of the Iranian drone array there were killed. It also did not respond to two additional attacks early on April 17, attributed to Israel by Syrian and Lebanese (i.e. Hizbullah) spokesmen and by Russian spokesmen, on the Sharyat air base near Homs and the Dumair air base near Damascus, regarding which Syria at first said that it had intercepted all the missiles but one that struck Dumair base, but afterwards changed its story and claimed that a false alarm caused by "a joint electronic attack" by Israel and the U.S. had triggered Syria's air defense system.
As noted, Tehran's response so far to Israel's attacks has been restrained, both militarily and with regard to statements about them. However, in contrast to its behavior following Israel's February 10 attack on the drone base and command and control vehicle, and following Israel's second attack that day against numerous Iranian and Syrian targets in Syria – that is, refraining from revealing its losses in the media – following the April 9 attack on the T-4 air base it did report its losses. This could reflect the Iranian regime's willingness to expose itself to pressure from the Iranian public to respond with counter-operations.
Left to right: Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) commander Ali Jafari, and IRGC Qods Force commander Qassem Soleimani, at Ashoura mourning ceremony at Khamenei's home. (Source: Kayhan, October 1, 2017)
Tehran's thunderous silence in light of Israel's repeated attacks on strategic Iranian and Syrian targets strengthens assessment that Tehran prefers, as of now, to overlook the Israeli attacks. But it is possible that Iran thinks that the serial Israeli operations are preventing it from accomplishing its strategic goals – that is, expanding in Syria – and that there is, therefore, no escape from all-out conflict with Israel now, not after Iran has established itself there. It is also possible that this restraint is a cover for secret preparations for an attack on Israel.
Israel has, with its operations, made it clear to Iran and Russia that it is ready for war now. An Iranian response to Israel could lead to an all-out Iran-Israel war. The fact that we are waiting to see how the Iranians will respond to Israel's operations is proof that the next war has already begun, and that it can be stopped only if Iran is deterred from carrying out its threats.
Past experience shows that Iran has always refrained from direct confrontation with the Gulf states, with Israel, and with the U.S., despite its far-reaching threats to wipe Israel, the U.S. military, and Saudi Arabia off the face of the earth.
Appendix: Reactions In Iran To Israel's Operations In Syria
In its April 16, 2018 editorial, the Kayhan daily, the regime mouthpiece that is known for its vociferously hawkish anti-Israel, anti-U.S., and anti-Saudi position, was vague about the expectation of an Iranian response, explaining that Iran was not answering the Israeli move – which it called a plot aimed at provoking an Iranian reaction in order to keep the U.S. in Syria. It stated: "In the matter of the Zionist regime's attack on the T-4 base in Homs, that caused the deaths of seven Iranians who were defending the holy places... there is an interpretation according to which the Zionists' short-term aim in attacking Iranian elements... is to force Iran to respond and thus to involve the U.S. in the battle. This plot was neutralized thanks to Iran's wisdom. In any event, and in any situation, there is no doubt that this crime will not remain unanswered..."[2]
Confirmation of this interpretation by the regime mouthpieces is the fact that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, IRGC commander Ali Jafari, and deputy commander Hossein Salami have said nothing about a response to the Israeli attack, even though they usually make militant statements about Israel. Iranian regime officials' statements were aimed primarily against the U.S., U.K., and France, in the context of their attack on the Assad regime's chemical weapons facilities. It should be noted that Supreme Leader Khamenei, who mentioned the tripartite attack on April 14, several hours after it took place, called the leaders of the three countries "criminals" but did not directly mention the Israeli attack on Iranian targets in Syria.
Khamenei then responded to Israel's claims that Iran was expanding militarily in Syria, saying: "When it is said that 'Iran is conquering and wants to occupy this particular place [Syria],' these words are meaningless, counter to reality, and mendacious. No, we have no desire to occupy [Syria], and we also have no occupying view regarding any point in the world. We also have no need [to occupy land]; thank God, the Iranian nation has a large, flourishing country with potential. Iran is present in Syria and in the Middle East in order to fight the evil [forces of repression] that existed and still exist there."[3]
Other Iranian spokesmen were also generally vague with regard to the timing of the operation and who would carry it out. Ali Akbar Velayati, senior advisor to Khamenei who was at the time visiting Syria, was relatively reticent on the Israeli T-4 air base attack, saying, on April 10: "Certainly this crime by the Zionists will not remain unanswered."[4]
At an April 16 press conference, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bahram Qassemi backed down somewhat on the issue of the timing of an Iranian response, and even assigned the task of a response to the resistance forces. He said: "Sooner or later, the Zionist regime will be on the receiving end of a suitable response in the matter of these attacks, to the point where it will regret what it did. It cannot make such a move and then sit in a corner unpunished... For Israel, the era of hit-and-run [attacks] is over, and the resistance forces are capable of giving a response appropriate for these crimes at the required and suitable time."[5]
While Qassemi said that vengeance would come from "the resistance forces," the leaders of Hizbullah, the main resistance faction that is subjugate to Iran, placed the responsibility for a response to Israel on Iran, stressing repeatedly that it was Iran that would decide on, and launch, the reprisal.
On April 13, Hizbullah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah said: "Of course, it is the Iranian officials who will decide what they will do [in response], and they will say what they will do. I do not want to be the one to talk about them or on their behalf... I want to say to the Israelis that they must know... that they have brought themselves into direct conflict with Iran... This is an incident that cannot be handled with a simple [response] such as happened with many other incidents that took place here. This is an historic turning point..."
Addressing Israel, he said: "Do not make a mistake in your assessments of the new path of conflict that you started and launched, and in the framework of which you are face to face and in direct [conflict] with the Islamic Republic of Iran, period."[6]
In an April 16 interview with the
Lebanon-based Al-Mayadeen TV, Hizbullah deputy secretary-general Na'im
Qassem clarified: "It should be assumed that following this deliberate
killing [at the T-4 air base], Iran will face [Israel] and make the
decision, as it sees fit, in order to prevent Israel from determining
rules [of conflict] that will limit Iran's movements in Syria, [which
are authorized] based on the agreement between Iran and Syria.
Accordingly, we must expect that there will be something [in response]
by Iran. But what will the Iranian position be, and what will its scope
be? Without a doubt, it is expected that [the response] will be within
Syria, but with regard to how it will be carried out, its exact details,
its scope, and its timing – this the Iranians will decide."[7]
It should be noted that at the same time,
lower-ranking Iranian officials were more explicit in promising Iranian
retribution, although their statements were vague about the nature and
timing of the response, and about who would carry it out.
Gen. Abedin Khorram, commander of the
IRGC's Ashoura base, said at the April 11 funeral of IRGC officer Akbar
Jannati who had been killed in the T-4 attack: "The Israeli enemy must
note that we will respond to the pure blood of Jannati in a timely
manner, mightily, and precisely. Israel's supreme aim in the matter of
occupying [the region] from the Nile to the Euphrates is already
suffocating them. Additionally, the Zionist aim to swallow up the
Islamic world is being suffocated, because [Israel] is surrounded by the
Palestinian front, and by the front in Syria, and this is thanks to the
blood of the martyrs who defend the holy places."[8]
Ali Shirazi, Supreme Leader Khamenei's
representative in the IRGC's Qods Force, said on April 12: "Israel must
be careful in its behavior if it wants to extend its criminal life by a
few days. It must stop its stupid [actions]. Iran has the might to
destroy Israel. If you [Israel] give Iran an excuse, Tel Aviv and Haifa
will be destroyed and flattened to dust."[9]
Three days later, on April 15, Shirazi
played down his statement calling for reprisal: "We have already said
several times that Iran has the capability to destroy America and
Israel, but it will never start a war."[10]
Also, on April 9, following the Israeli
T-4 air base attack, Tasnim military desk director Hossein Dalirian
tweeted that the IRGC reserves the right of vengeance: "Israel knows
very well that the IRGC reserves the right of vengeance, because of the
martyrdom of several of its military advisors at the T-4 base in Homs.
So wait. #IRGC_vengeance."[11]
Hossein Dalirian's April 9 tweet (Source: Twitter.com/HosseinDalirian/status/983434149351567360)
Two days later, Dalirian tweeted: "My recommendation to you [Israel] is to equip [your] shelters. Accounts must be settled, and that is final." The "equip [your] shelters" was rendered by Dalirian in Hebrew as "arm shelters," and the tweet included a photo of a long line of Israel soldiers.[12]
Hossein Dalirian's April 11, 2018 tweet (Source: Twitter.com/HosseinDalirian/status/984176844894294019)
Following the U.S.-U.K.-France attack in Syria, Dalirian tweeted, on April 14: "Now it is our turn and [the turn of] IRGC vengeance for Israel's missile attack on the T-4 base." The tweet included the same photo.[13]
Hossein Dalirian's April 14 tweet. (Source: Twitter.com/HosseinDalirian/status/985073801607155712)
Also regarding Israel's T-4 air base attack, on April 11, Ayatollah Nouri Hamdani called on the Iranian leadership to be "courageous" and act against the Zionist regime, that was so daring that it had caused the death of Iranian commanders: "The Zionist regime is so daring that it has caused the deaths of six Iranians. We cannot remain silent in the face of this. What is important for us is to be steadfast before the Zionists and the Americans, and not remain silent. We must not be silent or indifferent to the crimes of the Zionists and America; we will not be silent. They will gird themselves with more courage. We must be bold, and not silent."[14]
* Y. Carmon is President of MEMRI; A. Savyon is Director of the MEMRI Iran Media Project.
[1] Javan (Iran), April 10, 2018.
[2] Kayhan (Iran), April 16, 2018.
[3] Khamenei.ir, April 14, 2018.
[4] IRNA (Iran), February 10, 2018.
[5] ISNA (Iran), April 16, 2018.
[6] Alahednews.com.lb, April 15, 2018.
[7] Al-Mayadeen TV (Lebanon), April 16, 2018.
[8] Fars (Iran), April 11, 2018.
[9] Fars (Iran), April 12, 2018.
[10] Tasnim (Iran), April 15, 2018.
[11] Twitter.com/HosseinDalirian/status/983434149351567360, April 9, 2018.
[12] Twitter.com/HosseinDalirian/status/984176844894294019, April 11, 2018.
[13] Twitter.com/HosseinDalirian/status/985073801607155712, April 14, 2018.
[14] Tasnim (Iran), April 11, 2018.
Yigal Carmon is President of MEMRI; A. Savyon is Director of the MEMRI Iran Media Project.
Source: https://www.memri.org/reports/iran-faces-strategic-decision-%E2%80%93-whether-respond-israels-operations-against-its-military
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